2 Weeks Until Votes Are Counted In CA-21, Incumbent Republican Valadao In Tough Fight Against Democratic Challenger Renteria
2 weeks to Election Day in California’s 21st US Congressional District, Democratic Challenger Amanda Renteria is within possible striking distance of incumbent Republican David Valadao, according to a KFSN-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.
In an election today, 10/21/14, it’s Valadao 47%, Renteria 42%. Valadao’s support is older. He leads by more than 25 points among seniors. Renteria’s support is younger. She leads by 16 points among the youngest voters. Every younger voter who turns out on Election Day helps the challenger. If the electorate is older, then the incumbent will outperform these numbers.
Compared to a SurveyUSA tracking poll released 6 weeks ago, Renteria has surged among women. Back then, she trailed Valadao among women by 14 points. Today, she leads among women by 12, a 26-point turn-around. Valadao had lead by 25 points among men, now leads by 22.
Latino voters, who are the largest ethnic group in the District, back the Democrat 51% to 35%. Whites and Asians back the Republican. Independents break Republican. Moderates break Democratic. Of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot (23% of likely voters), Valadao leads by 5 points, 50% to 45%. Of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have not yet voted, but will before the 11/04/14 deadline, Valadao leads by 6 points, 47% to 41%.
This research conducted 100% by telephone; live operators used to contact cell-phone respondents: SurveyUSA interviewed 600 registered voters from California’s 21st Congressional District 10/15/14 through 10/20/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS, also known as: Voter List Sample) provided by Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 554 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (68% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (32% of likely voters) were interviewed by live operators, who hand-dialed cell phones, secured the respondent’s cooperation, qualified the respondent, conducted the interview and remained on the line until the completion of the call. You must credit KFSN-TV, the ABC-owned station in Fresno, if you publish, broadcast, or cite these results in whole or part.