In Re-Match in Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, Incumbent Democrat Nolan an Underdog, 19 Days to Go
Incumbent Democrat Rick Nolan will need to come from behind to hold onto his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. Democrats expect to pick-up House seats in the 2016 general election, but this has the potential to be a District that flips from Blue to Red.
Republican challenger Stuart Mills, who lost to Nolan by 3,700 votes in 2014, today narrowly edges Nolan, 45% to 41%, with 14% of likely voters still on the fence and able to swing the contest one way or the other. Either candidate may emerge.
Mills leads among voters younger than 64. Nolan leads only among seniors age 65+. Mills has a 10-point advantage among men, which Nolan cannot overcome with his 3-point advantage among women. 84% of Republicans vote for the Republican; 89% of Democrats vote for the Democrat. But independent voters — critical to both candidates — break for Mills at this hour, 45% to 35%, enough to make him the favorite.
Among voters who say that health care is the most important issue in the campaign, Nolan leads by 17 points. Among voters focused on terrorism, Mills leads 3:1. Among voters focused on taxes, Mills leads 2:1.
High-school educated voters vote overwhelmingly Republican; Nolan leads narrowly among those with a 4-year college degree.
Republican Donald Trump carries the district 47% to 35% over Hillary Clinton at this hour. Of those voting for Trump, 81% also vote for Mills. Of those voting for Clinton, 87% also vote for Nolan.
About: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 registered voters from Minnesota’s 8th U.S. Congressional District 10/16/16 through 10/19/16, using registration based sample (RBS, also-known-as: voter-list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 595 likely to vote before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (70% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents) were called on their cell-phones by live interviewers, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, ensured the respondent’s safety, asked the respondent the survey questions, entered the respondent’s answers, and remained on the line until the conclusion of the interview. MN-08 is a vast expanse of real estate stretching north from St Paul, over the top of Lake Superior, to the Canadian border, and as far west as Hubbard and Wadena Counties. Duluth is one of several population centers.