Ebb Tide Sinks All Boats: During Singularly Bad Week for President Trump, GOP Congressional Hopeful Karen Handel Finds Herself Trailing Democratic Upstart Jon Ossoff in GA Runoff Election Triggered By Trump Cabinet Pick for HHS

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 6 days ago

The pounding President Donald Trump is taking over loose lips may be taking a toll on Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, Karen Handel, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by WXIA-TV, the Tegna station in Atlanta.

Handel trails Democratic upstart Jon Ossoff 51% to 44% at this hour, close enough in a low-turnout, stand-alone runoff to be anyone’s call, though clearly Ossoff is in a better position than is Handel.

The district is Republican leaning but not Republican invincible: Trump carried the district in 2016, but only by 1.5 percentage points, compared to, say, the neighboring 9th Congressional District, which Trump carried by 58 percentage points.

Ossoff does not live in the 6th Congressional District, but voters shrug. 84% of Democrats and 21% of Republicans say the residency doesn’t bother them. Karen Handel does not have a college degree, but voters shrug. 45% of Democrats and 76% of Republicans say it is not an issue for them at all.

The vacancy in the seat for the 6th Congressional District was created when President Trump selected incumbent Republican congressman Tom Price to be a cabinet member, in charge of Health and Human Services. A special election with 18 candidates was held 04/18/2017. The Democrat, Ossoff, ran away with the contest, but fell short of reaching 50% of the vote, which would have handed him the seat and eliminated the need for a runoff.

The 06/20/17 runoff has national implications and will be seen as a referendum the Republican President.

SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters using Registration-Based Sampling (aka: Voter List sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the 700 registered voters, 549 were judged by SurveyUSA to have already voted in the runoff or to be certain to so before the 06/12/17 deadline. Both cell phone respondents and landline respondents were interviewed.

With Trump Abroad for 1st Time as POTUS, 1 in 3 Americans Approve of His Handling of Syria, North Korea; Majority Disapproves of His Handling of Russia; Better News For Trump on His Handling of the Economy, But Overall Failing Grades Across the USA for Besieged, Pugnacious President, 120 Days into His 1st Term

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 9 days ago

As President Trump meets with Arab leaders today and other world leaders over the next week, SurveyUSA examines what Americans think of Mr. Trump’s handling of international relationships with adversarial foreign powers. We learn:

25% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of Russia, 54% disapprove.
32% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of China, 42% disapprove.
33% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of Syria, 44% disapprove.
33% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of North Korea, 43% disapprove.

39% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of immigration, 52% disapprove.
25% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the environment, 56% disapprove.
27% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of health care, 59% disapprove.
41% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, 43% disapprove.

Asked to give Mr. Trump a letter “grade” after his 1st 4 months in office…

10% coast-to-coast give Mr. Trump an A.
20% coast-to-coast give Mr. Trump an B.
16% coast-to-coast give Mr. Trump an C.
17% coast-to-coast give Mr. Trump an D.
34% coast-to-coast give Mr. Trump an F.
On a 4.0 scale, Mr. Trump’s Grade Point Average today is 1.7, a C-minus.

Asked whether they would assign Mr. Trump a “passing” grade or a “failing” grade after 4 months in office, 52% fail Mr. Trump, 39% pass him.

1,500 adults nationwide were interviewed 05/17/17. Cell-phone and landline respondents were included. Additional, essential findings from this SurveyUSA poll on President Trump can be found here and here.

Americans Worry About Their President: Majority Says Mr. Trump Sometimes Loses Touch with Reality; Majority Says Mr. Trump Cannot Be Trusted with Sensitive National Secrets; 37% Say Mr. Trump is Unable to Distinguish Between What is Real and What is Made Up; 1 in 3 Say President Trump’s Mental Health is Poor; Just 27% Say History Will View Him As a Patriot

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 10 days ago

As storm clouds darken by the hour, and in some quarters tornado sirens sound, Americans are deeply worried about the President of the United States, Donald John Trump, according to SurveyUSA’s latest nationwide survey.

In interviews conducted after news stories that Mr. Trump had asked FBI Director James Comey to let go of the criminal investigation into former National Security Administration head Michael Flynn, but before further troubling revelations that Flynn would not honor a subpoena from the U.S. Senate, before news broke that Mr. Trump knew Mr. Flynn was under criminal investigation before he hired him, and before news broke that the Department of Justice had appointed a Special Prosecutor to investigate Mr. Trump, SurveyUSA finds:

56% of Americans (including 1 in 4 Republicans) say Mr. Trump sometimes loses touch with reality, up from 49% in February. Just 26% say Mr. Trump sees the world as it is, down from 33% in February.

Just 11% of Americans say Mr. Trump always tells the truth (down ever-so-slightly from 13% in February).
A plurality, 43%, says Mr. Trump knows when he is telling the truth and knows when he is making things up (unchanged from February).
37% today say Mr. Trump is unable to distinguish between what is true and what is made up (up, but ever-so-slightly from 35% in February.)

33% say Mr. Trump can be trusted with sensitive national secrets, but a majority, 52%, say Mr. Trump cannot.
Earlier this week, Mr. Trump claimed an “absolute right” to release classified info to Russian officials when those officials visited him in the White House.
18% of Republicans vs 83% of Democrats say Mr. Trump cannot be trusted.
51% of independents and 56% of moderates say Mr. Trump cannot be trusted.
Besides Republicans and conservatives, Mr. Trump’s core supporters, only 3 constituencies at this hour say Mr. Trump can be trusted: Protestants, pro-lifers, and those who live in rural America.
Everyone else — North, South, East and West, male, female, young, old, military, non-military, educated or not — says Mr. Trump cannot be trusted.

While a plurality, 37%, describe Mr. Trump’s physical health as good, a plurality, 33%, describe Mr. Trump’s mental health as poor.
Just 27% say Mr. Trump will go down in history as a patriot. 53% say history will record Mr. Trump as something else.

1,500 adults were interviewed nationwide on 05/17/17. Cellphone and home phone respondents were included.

Majority in San Diego Says Trump Has Abused Power, Was Reckless To Share Information With Russia; Split Evenly on High Crimes / Misdemeanors

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 10 days ago

41% of San Diego area adults say President Donald Trump has committed a high crime or misdemeanor while in office, which would be grounds for impeachment under the U.S. Constitution, according to this latest exclusive KGTV 10News / San Diego Union Tribune poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Meantime, while 45% say talk of impeachment is premature, 47% feel otherwise: 19% say talk of impeachment is timely, 28% say talk of impeachment is overdue.

45% of San Diego area adults say former FBI Director James Comey was fired because he was spending too much time on the President’s relationship with Russia; 24% say he was fired for not doing a good job; 13% say Comey lost his job for mishandling the Hillary Clinton email investigation. 46% say President Trump’s removal of Comey was an obstruction of justice; 38% say it was not. 56% say President Trump is guilty of abuse of power; 35% say he is not.

59% say the President acted “recklessly” when he shared classified information with Russian diplomats; 26% say he acted “wisely.”

Full results follow …

Majority in USA Says Trump Guilty of Abuse of Power; Plurality Says Trump Guilty of Obstruction of Justice; 60% Say President Acted Recklessly in Sharing Classified Info with Russian Diplomats; On the Other Hand, Majority Nationwide Has No Confidence That Republicans in Congress Will Put Their Country Before Party

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 11 days ago

1 in 3 Americans nationwide say Donald Trump has committed a “high crime or misdemeanor” while serving as President of the United States. 53% of Americans say Mr. Trump is guilty of abuse of power. And 45% of Americans say Mr. Trump is guilty of obstruction of justice. All of that, according to the latest SurveyUSA poll of 1,500 adults.

Caution: This survey was conducted at a time of fast-moving, volatile and unpredictable news events; the findings could be obsoleted at any moment by significant changes in the known set of publicly-known facts. That caveat notwithstanding, here is what the thermometer says as SurveyUSA takes America’s temperature this Wednesday 05/17/17, after news reports that the President directly asked the FBI Director to let go of a criminal investigation into former National Security Director Michael Flynn:

82% of Democrats, 49% of independents, 23% of Republicans, 80% of African Americans, 74% of Hispanics, say Mr. Trump has abused his power.
76% of liberals, 46% of moderates, 21% of conservatives, 53% of 18-to-34-year-olds, say Mr. Trump has obstructed justice.

35% say Mr. Trump has committed a high crime or misdemeanor while serving as President, which would be grounds for impeachment under the U.S. Constitution. Yet, 48% say talk of impeachment is premature. 19% say talk of impeachment is timely, and 26% say talk of impeachment is overdue.

No impeachment can happen in a Congress that is controlled by Republicans unless Republicans have the will to act. Just 24% of Americans say that Congressional Republicans — led by Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Paul Ryan of Wisconsin — will put their country before their political party. A majority, 56%, say Republicans will put their party before their country. Democrats can take no comfort in those findings. The country thinks Democrats are almost as bad: 33% have confidence that Democrats will put their country before their political party, compared to 47% who say the Democrats will put their party before their country. Congressional Democrats are led by Charles Schumer of New York and Nancy Pelosi of California.

On the essential triggering event, as to whether President Trump legitimately won the 2016 election, Americans are divided. 41% say Mr. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton fair-and-square. An equal number, 41%, say Mr. Trump was helped across the finish line. Protestants stand by the President: 54% say he was elected fair and square. Catholics, other Christian denominations and members of other religions and atheists are not so sure. Whites and minorities see the question in stark contrast. Those in urban America and those in rural America come to opposite conclusions about whether Hail to the Chief should be played for Hillary Clinton and not for Donald Trump.

At this hour, 43% of Americans say Mr. Trump will not serve a full term (36% because he will removed from office, 7% because he will resign the office). Another 30% say Mr. Trump will serve 1 full term. 18% (including disproportionately conservatives and pro-lifers), say Mr. Trump will serve 2 full terms.

Stay tuned.

40% in Portland Say Government Officials Doing ‘Poor’ Job Managing Region’s Traffic Congestion, But What Is The Solution? Majority See Toll Roads As A Dead End; Tepid Support for A Tax on Gasoline; 6 in 10 Say They Are Unwilling to Ride a Bicycle

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 19 days ago

One-fourth of those in greater Portland are rarely or never inconvenienced by traffic congestion, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV. But for the other three-fourths of area residents, congestion is seen as a bother (46%), a source of stress every day (22%), and the cause of ruination (3%).

3 times as many Democrats as Republicans want to see money spent on mass transit. Twice as many Republicans as Democrats say mass transit is a waste of taxpayer money.

27% say toll roads are a step in the wrong direction, and 26% go even further and call toll roads a completely wrong-headed approach (combined: 53% opposed to toll roads).

26% say an additional tax on a gallon of gasoline is a step in the wrong direction. 23% say higher gasoline taxes are a completely wrong-headed approach (combined: 49% opposed to higher gasoline taxes).

25% in greater Portland ride a bicycle “regularly” or “occasionally,” and that is the same percentage who say they may ride a bike if the price of gasoline gets too high and/or if road congestion becomes more unbearable.

As President Trump Approaches 100th Day in Office, Plurality in Greater San Diego Give Him an ‘F’ Grade; County Split On Whether Trump Won 2016 Election Fair-And-Square, Not Sure if Russian Meddling Is Strictly Routine or Unprecedented

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 27 days ago

48% of San Diego area residents feel excluded from Donald Trump’s America (including 71% of African Americans, 61% of Latinos, 76% of Democrats, 84% of liberals, and 61% of those with no religious affiliation), compared to 36% who feel included, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by KGTV 10News and the San Diego Union-Tribune. 650 adults were interviewed 04/27/17 through 04/30/17. The findings are key to understanding the mixed report card President Trump receives from those in greater San Diego.

41% of area residents say Mr. Trump was elected fair and square. But a nearly identical number, 40%, say Mr. Trump was helped across the finish line. 19% say that Russia had nothing to do with the America’s 2016 Presidential election, though that is not supported by the FBI’s telling of events. 22% say that Russia did try to influence the 2016 election, but no more so than in past American Presidential elections. Another 22% say Russia made an unprecedented attempt to influence the outcome of the 2016 election, but not because they were rooting for Mr. Trump, rather because they wanted to create chaos in the Western World. A plurality, 24%, say Russia interfered with the 2016 election because Russia felt that Mr. Trump would treat Russia as a friend, not a foe.

39% today give Mr. Trump a passing grade as President, but a majority, 51%, give Mr. Trump a failing grade. Breaking it down further, Mr. Trump’s report card looks like this:

= 11%.
= 19%.
= 20%.
= 17%.
= 30%.
GPA (Grade Point Average) on a 4.0 scale = 1.8. 

In greater San Diego:

41% approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy ; 41% disapprove.
41% approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of Syria ; 43% disapprove.
38% approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of North Korea ; 44% disapprove.
37% approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of China ; 38% disapprove.
37% approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of immigration ; 55% disapprove.
27% approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of Russia ; 51% disapprove.
27% approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of healthcare ; 56% disapprove.
21% approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of the environment ; 61% disapprove.

63% (including majorities of both men and women, young and old, and whites and minorities) say Mr. Trump cares more about Mr. Trump than he does about the American people.

3 months into his 1st term, 28% say Trump is on his way to make America great again, 22% say Mr. Trump is not yet having an impact one way or the other, 43% say Mr. Trump is making America worse than ever. Of those who voted for Mr. Trump in 2016, more than three-quarters, 77%, have no regrets today. Another 21% have regrets, but still feel that Mr. Trump was the better of the 2 major-party candidates. Just 2% wish they had voted for someone else or had not voted at all.

34% say Mr. Trump will leave office before his first term is up, 36% say he will serve one full term, and 21% say he will serve 2 full terms. 12% say Trump will go down in history as one of America’s greatest Presidents, 46% say Trump will go down in history as one of America’s worst Presidents, 28% say Trump will be remembered somewhere in between.

Historical footnote: The President’s use of Twitter is seen on the whole as a minus (67%), not a plus (21%).

Portland Public School Bond Issue 26-193 Has Early Advantage, But Will That Be Enough to Pass When Votes Are Counted in 19 Days?

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 30 days ago

As ballots begin to show up in the U.S. mailboxes of those who live in the Portland OR Public School District, support for bond issue 26-193 is significantly greater than opposition, according to a KATU-TV News Poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

In a hypothetical election today, Yes on 26-193 leads No 46% to 27%. Another 27% of those who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to return a mailed ballot before the deadline tell SurveyUSA they are not yet certain how they will vote on 26-193.

Should the referendum pass with 50% of the vote (plus 1), the school district will be able to float $790 million in bonds to pay for the removal of lead, and the cyclical modernization of aging school properties. The $790 million in school bonds would be the largest issued in state history.

Younger voters, with the most to gain, are overwhelmingly in favor of the ballot measure, 9:1. Older voters, who will see their taxes increase but most of whom no longer have kids in school, split: 33% in favor, 33% opposed, 34% not certain.

Though the ballot measure is non-partisan, Republicans oppose it, Democrats and Independents support it. Conservatives vote No by 5:3, liberals vote Yes by 4:1. The most affluent voters vote Yes 2:1; the least affluent voters vote Yes by 3:2.

Opposition to all ballot measures, having nothing uniquely to do with Portland, with Oregon, or with 2017, increases as Election Day approaches. Typically, the first measure of a ballot measure (which this is) is the poll that shows the measure passing by the largest margin. Subsequent polls typically show opposition increasing. It remains to be seen whether opposition to 26-193 will materialize in force, or materialize only in theory.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the Portland Public School District 04/24/17 through 04/27/17. Of the adults, 748 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 508 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to return a ballot before votes are counted 05/16/17. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (68% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents, 32% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

As President Trump Approaches 100th Day in Office, Plurality in Greater Los Angeles Give Him an ‘F’ Grade; Southland Split On Whether Trump Won 2016 Election Fair-And-Square, Not Sure if Russian Meddling Is Strictly Routine or Unprecedented

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 32 days ago

52% of Southland residents feel excluded from Donald Trump’s America (including 73% of African Americans, 60% of Latinos, 79% of Democrats, 76% of liberals, and 56% of Jews), compared to 34% who feel included, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by KABC-TV Eyewitness News. 800 adults were interviewed 04/21/17 through 04/24/17. The findings are key to understanding the mixed report card President Trump receives from those in greater Los Angeles.

35% of area residents say Mr. Trump was elected fair and square. But a larger number, 44%, say Mr. Trump was helped across the finish line. 18% say that Russia had nothing to do with the America’s 2016 Presidential election, though that is not supported by the FBI’s telling of events. 22% say that Russia did try to influence the 2016 election, but no more so than in past American Presidential elections. 18% say Russia made an unprecedented attempt to influence the outcome of the 2016 election, but not because they were rooting for Mr. Trump, rather because they wanted to create chaos in the Western World. A plurality, 28%, say Russia interfered with the 2016 election because Russia felt that Mr. Trump would treat Russia as a friend, not a foe.

37% today give Mr. Trump a passing grade as President, but a majority, 53%, give Mr. Trump a failing grade. Breaking it down further, Mr. Trump’s report card looks like this:

= 10%.
= 19%.
= 17%.
= 20%.
= 31%.
GPA (Grade Point Average) on a 4.0 scale = 1.7. 

In the Southland:

37% approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy ; 45% disapprove.
37% approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of Syria ; 48% disapprove.
34% approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of North Korea ; 46% disapprove.
34% approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of immigration ; 60% disapprove.
33% approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of China ; 45% disapprove.
26% approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of Russia ; 55% disapprove.
24% approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of healthcare ; 62% disapprove.
22% approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of the environment ; 61% disapprove.

63% (including majorities of Protestants, Catholics, members of other Christian denominations, Jews and non-religious Angelenos) say Mr. Trump cares more about Mr. Trump than he does about the American people.

3 months into his 1st term, 23% say Trump is on his way to make America great again, 24% say Mr. Trump is not yet having an impact one way or the other, 45% say Mr. Trump is making America worse than ever. Of those who voted for Mr. Trump in 2016, two-thirds, 68%, have no regrets today. Another 25% have regrets, but still feel that Mr. Trump was the better of the 2 major-party candidates. Just 3% wish they had voted for someone else. The smallest number, 2%, wish they had not voted at all.

43% say Mr. Trump will leave office before his first term is up, 29% say he will serve one full term, and 20% say he will serve 2 full terms. 12% say Trump will go down in history as one of America’s greatest Presidents, 52% say Trump will go down in history as one of America’s worst Presidents, 26% say Trump will be remembered somewhere in between.

Historical footnote: The President’s use of Twitter is seen on the whole as a minus (64%), not a plus (22%).

In Special Election in GA’s 6th Congressional District, 4 Republican Candidates Splinter Conservative Vote; Democrat Ossoff Gets Lion’s Share of Moderate and Liberal Vote, Is Clear Front-Runner, 2 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted, Who Could Win Seat Outright

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 52 days ago

18 names, including 11 Republicans, are on the ballot in the 04/18/17 special election to fill the seat in the U.S. House of Representatives left vacant when Republican Tom Price resigned to become Donald Trump’s Secretary of Health and Human Services. And though Price has won GA-06 with 62%, 66%, and 65% of the vote in the last 3 elections, it is a Democrat who leads at this hour, 2 weeks till votes are counted, according to SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for WXIA-TV in Atlanta.

Jon Ossoff, a filmmaker, former journalist, and former congressional staffer, gets 43% of the vote “today,” impressive given that there are 4 other Democrats on the ballot who, combined, get 4% of the vote.

The top 4 Republican finishers — Karen Handel (15%), Bob Gray (14%), Dan Moody (7%), Judson Hill (5%) — carve up the conservative constituency. If Republicans are able to keep Democrat Ossoff from getting 50% of the vote on 04/18/17, then Republicans will be able to consolidate behind the top GOP finisher, be that Handel or Gray, and take-on Ossoff one-on-one in a runoff 06/20/17.

But: should Ossoff reach 50% in the 18-person field, the Democrats flip the seat from Red to Blue without a runoff, fueling speculation about whether the Democrats may re-capture the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2018 mid-term elections, as backlash against heavy-handed President Trump.

Ossoff’s support is young, educated and affluent. The younger and wealthier the electorate, the better Ossoff will do. Among Democrats, he gets 86% of the vote; among Strong Democrats he gets 85% of the vote; among those who are somewhat liberal, he gets 92% of the vote, among those who are very liberal, he gets 91%. Of those who voted for Republican Price in 2016, 13% cross-over and vote for the Democrat Ossoff in 2017.

Republican Handel’s support is old and white. Republican Gray’s support is middle-aged, middle-income and Evangelical. Of voters who say Congress should stay focused on health care, Handel leads Gray 22% to 8%. Of voters who say Congress should turn its attention to tax reform, Gray leads Handel 30% to 25%.

By 5:4, voters in GA-06 say a special investigator should be named to look into Russia’s involvement in the 2016 Presidential election. Of those who favor a special investigator, Ossoff gets 73% of the vote. Of those who oppose a special investigator, Gray gets 29%, Handel gets 28%.

A majority of special election voters say the Affordable Care Act should be left in place but improved. Within this group, Ossoff gets 75% of the vote. Of voters who say that the Affordable Care Act should be repealed entirely, Gray edges Handel 32% to 31%.

Context: 900 registered voters were interviewed by SurveyUSA 03/27/17 through 04/02/17, using voter-list sample provided by Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the 900 registered voters, 503 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to do so before the deadline. This research was conducted 100% by telephone: 68% of likely voters were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. 32% of likely voters were interviewed on their cell phones, using live operators, who hand-dialed the respondent’s cell phone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, qualified the respondent as a voter, asked the questions, entered the answers, and remained on the line until the survey was completed. Polling Congressional Districts is challenging even under ideal circumstances. Polling for a special election, where nothing else is on the ballot, and where turnout could be a fraction of what it was in the 2016 general election, is even more challenging. Some news reports indicate that Republicans have started to spend money in GA-06 only in the past couple of days. If Republicans make a significant media buy in the remaining 2 weeks, Ossoff’s support may be overstated here, and his chances of winning the seat outright on 04/18/17 would be reduced. To the extent that Democrats see Ossoff and 04/18/17 as their best shot at flipping the seat, and spend dollars accordingly, the fight will be to the finish.

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