In California’s 17th Congressional District, Incumbent Democrat Honda Will Advance to General Election Runoff in Re-Match With Democrat Khanna
2 weeks till votes are counted in California’s 06/07/16 primary, the open, non-partisan, Top-2 contest in the Golden State’s 17th Congressional District sets up as an exact re-run of the 2014 match-up, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KPIX-TV, CBS in San Francisco.
In 2014, then 1st-term Congressman Mike Honda was challenged by Democrat Ro Khanna and 2 Republicans. Honda and Khanna combined to take 3/4ths of the primary votes cast, and advanced to a November 2014 runoff, which Honda won narrowly.
Today, 2nd-term Congressman Honda is again challenged by Khanna, and by Democrat Pierluigi Oliverio, Republican Ron Cohen, Republican Peter Kuo and Libertarian Kennita Watson. Honda and Khanna again combine to take the lion’s share of the primary vote and, barring something extraordinarily unforeseen happening in the 2 weeks until votes are counted, almost certainly advance to a do-over-re-match on 11/08/16.
The exact research results at this hour show Honda at 31%, Khanna at 25%, Cohen at 7%, Kuo at 5%, and Oliverio and Watson each at 2%.
29% of voters are undecided. When the undecided voters finally pick a horse in this race, Honda and Khanna should again end up with about 3/4ths of the primary votes cast. It is possible that in the primary, Khanna may finish ahead of Honda, or, somewhat more likely, that Honda will finish ahead of Khanna, as these poll results show. Regardless, the same 2 candidates advance.
Honda and Khanna split the Asian-American vote. Honda leads narrowly among whites, and leads by larger margins among the district’s smaller Latino and African American populations. Among Republicans, Cohen and Khanna tie for the lead, with Honda and Kuo battling for 3rd place. Among Democrats, Honda leads decisively. Among Independents, Khanna has a narrow advantage. Among moderates, among the wealthiest voters, and among the most educated voters, Khanna and Honda run even. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Khanna has a slight edge over Honda, 33% to 30%, which may indicate Khanna’s voters are more enthusiastic and/or that Khanna has better organized voter outreach.
About: From 05/18/16 through 05/23/16, SurveyUSA interviewed 600 registered voters from CA-17 using Registration-Based Sample (aka: Voter List Sample) from Aristotle, in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 564 had either already returned a ballot (early voting began 05/09/16) or were certain to do so before the deadline. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents with a landline (home) telephone (69% of likely voters, were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents without a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents) (31% of likely voters) were interviewed on their cell-phone by a live operator who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, and asked the respondents the questions. Live interviewers remained on the call until completion. Honda defeated Khanna by 20 points in the 2014 primary, and by 3 points in the 2014 general. The seat was previously held by Democrat Sam Farr, who was redistricted to California’s 20th Congressional District at the end of 2012.