Bevin, Comer, Heiner Stagger Toward Finish Line in KY Gubernatorial Republican Primary; No Clear Favorite 1 Week Till Votes Are Counted
One week till Kentucky Republicans vote in a primary for Governor, candidates Matt Bevin, Hal Heiner, and James Comer are effectively even, according to the Bluegrass Poll released by The Louisville Courier-Journal, The Lexington Herald Leader, WHAS-TV in Louisville and WKYT-TV in Lexington.
There is no clear favorite in the contest at this hour, given the inherent limitations of a sample size of 517 likely Republican primary voters. The 3 candidates may finish one, two, three in any order. Every Republican primary vote will be critical to the emergent victor, who will face Democrat Jack Conway in a general election for Governor on 11/03/15.
Nominally: Bevin is backed by 27% of GOP primary voters … but his support is disproportionately young … and primary voters are disproportionately old. Bevin may under-perform these numbers. Bevin leads among those who identify themselves as “very” conservative. Comer is backed by 26% of GOP primary voters. His support is old; he leads among seniors. Heiner is backed by 25% of GOP primary voters. His backers disproportionately identify themselves as “strong” Republicans.
Western KY votes strongly for Comer. Greater Louisville narrowly prefers Heiner to Bevin. North Central KY overwhelmingly prefers Bevin. Eastern KY splits between Comer and Heiner. The least affluent and most affluent Republican primary voters back Comer. Middle-income Republican Primary voters back Bevin.
Presumptive Democratic nominee Jack Conway, who defeats Geoff Young 5:1 in next week’s primary, has convinced a majority of Democratic primary voters that he neither would side too much with the coal industry (11%), nor side too much with environmentalists (12%), but instead would adopt a balanced approach (58%). Similarly, among Democratic primary voters, 11% say Conway is too conservative, 13% say Conway is too liberal, but an overwhelming majority of Democratic primary voters (63%) say Conway’s political ideology is “just about right.”
In hypothetical head-to-head match-ups for the 11/03/15 general election for Kentucky Governor, among registered KY voters today:
* Conway defeats Comer by 6 points, 45% to 39%.
* Conway defeats Heiner by 12 points, 48% to 36%.
* Conway defeats Bevin by 11 points, 48% to 37%.
Looking ahead to 2016, Republicans primary voters like the Favorite Son, as follows:
* Rand Paul, 26%.
* Mike Huckabee, 15%.
* Jeb Bush, 12%.
* Scott Walker 10%.
* All other 2016 Republican presidential candidates are in single digits.
In a general election in 2016, where the only two names on the ballot were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand Paul, Bluegrass voters split, 45% for Paul, 45% for Clinton. Election Day is in 78 weeks.
About this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 state of KY adults 05/05/15 through 05/10/15. Of the adults, 2,104 were registered to vote in the state of Kentucky. Of the registered voters, 517 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/19/15 Republican Primary, 707 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/19/15 Democratic Primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
NC’s 15 Electoral Votes Up For Grabs In 2016, But Democrat Hillary Clinton Has Slight Edge on Each GOP Contender, 18 Months Till Vote
In head-to-head Presidential matchups between likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and 5 Republican hopefuls, North Carolina voters are effectively tied in 4 of the cases, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable North Carolina. Clinton defeats Scott Walker today by a 9-point margin, leads both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio by 5 points, Rand Paul by 4 points, and both Jeb Bush and “some other Republican” by a slim 2-point margin. Aside from Scott Walker, each result is within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. North Carolina went “red” in 2012, went “blue” in 2008.
1st Look At NC Presidential Primaries: Rubio, Bush, Paul, Walker Tightly Clustered on GOP Side; Clinton Swamps Democratic Opposition
If the 2016 North Carolina Presidential Primaries were held today, Hillary Clinton would easily win on the Democratic side, while 6 different Republicans all poll within 6 points of one another, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable North Carolina.
Among likely voters in the Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton takes 56%. US Senator Elizabeth Warren, who has said she will not run, trails with 11%; Vice President Joe Biden takes 8%: 3 other named candidates each take 3% of the vote. 16% of likely voters in the Democratic primary say they would vote for some other Democrat, or are still undecided.
In the Republican Primary, candidates cluster tightly:
* Marco Rubio gets 16% today and runs most strongly among voters 50+, those with college educations, those with higher incomes, and in Greater Raleigh.
* Jeb Bush takes 15%, drawing strength from moderates and in Southern and Coastal Carolina.
* Rand Paul today gets 14%, and runs 3 times more strongly among voters under age 50 than among voters 50+.
* Scott Walker gets 12%. Among Republicans, Walker gets 11%; among Independents, 22%.
* Mike Huckabee, at 11%, is stronger among younger voters than older voters.
* Ted Cruz takes 10% today. Cruz does twice as well among younger voters than among older voters, and twice as well among Independents than among Republicans.
Chris Christie, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum are further back. 10% would vote for another Republican or are undecided.
Familiar Face Longwell Has Slight Advantage Over Fresh-Face Wiliams in Race for Open-Seat of Wichita Mayor
Wichita City Council Member Jeff Longwell appears to have a slight advantage over political newcomer Sam Williams in the race to replace Mayor Carl Brewer, who is term limited. Today, as early voting begins, and 2 weeks until votes are counted, it’s Longwell 42%, Williams 35%, with 22% of the most likely voters still undecided.
Longwell leads among both men and women and, though narrowly, leads in all age groups. Self-identified Republicans back Longwell by 4 points, but self-identified conservatives back Williams by 5 points, so the “political right” is not of one mind. Democrats back Longwell by 9 points. Moderates back Longwell by 5 points. Independents back Longwell by 10 points.
Williams, a businessman, out-polls Longwell 2:1 among voters who see Job Development as the city’s largest priority (44% to 23%). And, Williams ties Longwell among the city’s most affluent voters. The wealthier the electorate, and the more motivated the electorate is by job development, the better Williams will do. But: Longwell leads 2:1 among voters who are focused on Infrastructure, leads 3:1 among voters focused on property tax rates, and leads narrowly among voters focused on spending.
Also on the city ballot is an initiative to decriminalize marijuana. It is unclear whether this initiative will attract to the polls non-traditional voters who do not typically vote in a off-year municipal election. Based on SurveyUSA’s best read of the electorate, “Yes,” to decriminalize marijuana, leads “No” 45% to 39%. The youngest voters back decriminalization 5:4. The oldest voters oppose decriminalization 4:3. Republicans and conservatives oppose. Democrats and moderates support.
Those who oppose decriminalization fear that permissive marijuana laws will lead to more serious drug use. Those who support decriminalization say that marijuana use is not a serious offense.
About: Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents were included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 city of Wichita adults 03/18/15 through 03/23/15. Of the adults, 873 were registered to vote in the city. Of the 873 registered voters, 501 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
Full results here.
58% of Oregon adults say Governor John Kitzhaber should resign, according to this latest exclusive KATU 2 News Poll conducted by SurveyUSA. 36% say Kitzhaber should remain in office. Republicans say Kitzhaber should resign by a 4:1 margin; independents by a margin of 2:1. Democrats say Kitzhaber should remain in office by a slim 5:4 margin.
45% of Oregonians say Kitzhaber has done things that were unethical, but not illegal; 28% say Kitzhaber has broken the law; 20% say he has done nothing wrong. When asked the same question about Cylvia Hayes, Kitzhaber’s fiance and Oregon’s First Lady, a different response: a majority, 54%, believe she has broken the law; another 28% say she has acted unethically, but not illegally.
Who bears most of the blame for the situation John Kitzhaber tonight finds himself in? 31% say Kitzhaber himself is most to blame; 22% say Hayes; 41% say both bear an equal share of the responsibility.
3 of 4 San Francisco Bay Area adults familiar with the protests that shut down BART service on Black Friday say criminal charges against the “Black Friday 14″ protesters should remain in place. By a 2:1 margin, those familiar with the protests say financial restitution should be made; by an 8:1 margin, that protesters should be required to perform community service. Full results here.
* One-third of Fresno agrees with all of President Obama’s immigration changes.
* One-third of Fresno disagrees with all of President Obama’s immigration changes.
* And one-third of Fresno agrees with some changes and disagrees with other changes.
* Half of Fresno says the President has the authority to make such changes.
* Half of Fresno says the President does not have the authority to make such changes.
1,000 Fresno area adults were interviewed 11/21/14. Of them, 647 watched the President’s 11/20/14 speech to the nation, or heard news coverage of it. Full results here.