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Former Republican Governor Crist Atop Current Incumbent Republican Governor Scott in Race for Florida Statehouse

SurveyUSA Operations - 2 days ago

29 weeks till votes are counted in Florida, incumbent Republican Governor Rick Scott is the underdog in a fight against (now) Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Today, it’s Christ 46%, Scott 41%. 502 likely voters interviewed.

Scott’s support is older. Crist’s support is younger. The older the electorate on Election Day, the better Scott will do. The younger the electorate, the better Crist will do.

Scott leads 2:1 in Northeast Florida, and more narrowly leads in Southwest Florida (which includes the Tampa Bay region). Crist leads 3:2 in Southeast Florida and more narrowly in Central Florida and Northwest Florida. A small turnout in Dade and Broward counties helps Scott. A large turnout in Dade and Broward counties helps Crist. Scott holds 71% of the Republican base, compared to Crist, who holds 80% of the Democratic base. Independents split. Conservatives vote 7:1 Republican. Liberals vote 8:1 Democratic. Importantly, moderates break 7:4 for the Democrat Crist.

Scott and Crist are effectively even among college graduates. Crist leads among less educated voters. Scott leads among upper-income voters. Crist leads among lower-income voters. Middle-income voters split. Scott leads narrowly among white voters; Crist leads overwhelmingly among African Americans, and materially among Asian Americans. Both Cubans and non-Cuban Hispanics lean slightly Republican — but that is based on a small sample and caution should be exercised in projecting those numbers out to Election Day.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: 940 state of Florida adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 04/10/14 through 04/14/14. Of the adults, 799 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 502 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

NC Senate Primary at Hand, But Regardless of Republican Winner, Democrat Incumbent Kay Hagan Faces Uphill Climb to November

SurveyUSA Operations - 14 days ago

North Carolina Democratic Incumbent Senator Kay Hagan will face a Republican challenger on Election Day 11/04/14. It will be one of 2 Republicans who emerge from a 05/06/14 Republican Primary and 07/15/14 Republican Runoff. The problem for Hagan is, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable News North Carolina, no matter which of 5 Republicans she goes up against, she’s in trouble: While it’s premature for Republicans to count their chickens, it’s not too soon for Democrats nationwide to be worried, since a Hagan defeat would flip a seat in the United States Senate from Democratic hands to Republican hands, and could help Republicans take control of the US Senate in the next Congress. (Republicans already control the US House of Representatives.)

First, to the NC Republican Primary: 5 weeks till votes are counted, Thom Tillis, Greg Brannon and Mark Harris are the only 3 candidates in double-digits, Tillis at 23%, Brannon at 15%, Harris at 11%. Others trail. None today appear likely to get to the 40% threshold, needed to avoid a runoff. Tillis’ support is male, older, conservative, educated, affluent and spread evenly throughout the state. Brannon’s support is made up disproportionately of unaffiliated voters, heavily concentrated in Southern and Coastal NC. Harris’ support is younger and less educated. 1 in 3 likely NC Republican Primary voters remain undecided. 433 likely Republican Primary voters were interviewed.

Now, on to the November General Election. 7 months till voting begins, we caution that much can change, but today, SurveyUSA finds that incumbent Democrat Hagan does not defeat any Republican challenger. 1,489 likely NC general election voters interviewed. There are some pollster semantics involved here, since Hagan trails by as few as 1 and no more than 4 points, which means that the Republican advantage may or may not be statistically significant. So we must be cautious not to say that in every case Hagan “trails.” However, in no case does Hagan lead. Here we go:

Tillis edges Hagan 46% to 45% today.
Brannon edges Hagan 47% to 45% today.
Harris edges Hagan 47% to 43% today.
Ted Alexander, who gets just 6% in the Republican primary, edges Hagan 46% to 44%.
Heather Grant, who gets just 6% in the Republican primary, edges Hagan 46% to 44%.
In no hypothetical head-to-head matchup does Hagan get more than 45% of the vote.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,200 North Carolina adults 03/27/14 through 03/31/14. Of the adults, 1,930 were registered to vote. Of the registered, SurveyUSA determined that 433 were likely to vote in the 05/06/14 Republican Primary, and only those likely Republican Primary voters were asked the Republican Primary questions. A larger group of 1,489 likely general election voters was asked about the head-to-head November match-ups. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (78% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (22% of registered voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In NC GOP Primary, Tillis Leads 7 Challengers; Brannon and Grant Battle for 2nd Place; Eventual Winner Faces Kay Hagan in November

SurveyUSA Operations - 27 days ago

6 weeks till votes are counted in the North Carolina Republican Primary for United States Senator, Thom Tillis leads a field of 8 Republican hopefuls, 28% for Tillis to 15% for Greg Brannon to 11% for Heather Grant, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WRAL-TV in Raleigh. Tillis’ support is older, wealthier, better educated, and concentrated in greater Greensboro.

The top Republican needs to reach 40% in the GOP primary to avoid a 07/15/14 runoff. Today, 23% of likely Republican Primary voters are undecided. If these undecided voters are allocated to each of the 8 candidates, Tillis today ends up at 36% — short of the 40% threshold. In a runoff: would Tillis face Brannon, whose support is disproportionately lower-income and concentrated in Southern and Coastal Carolina? Or would Tillis face Grant, whose support is disproportionately young, less educated, and concentrated in greater Raleigh? Or, might Brannon face Grant? The next 6 weeks till tell us.

Today:

Tillis is viewed favorably by 34% of likely GOP Primary voters, unfavorably by 11% — a Plus 23.
Brannon is viewed favorably by 27%, unfavorably by 11% — a Plus 16.
Grant is viewed favorably by 20%, unfavorably by 9% — a Plus 11.
Ted Alexander is viewed favorably by 17%, unfavorably by 9% — a Plus 8. Alexander gets 7% in a primary today.
Mark Harris is viewed favorably by 23%, unfavorably by 9% — a Plus 14. Harris gets 6% of the vote in a primary today.
Alex Lee Bradshaw is viewed favorably by 15%, unfavorably by 8% — a Plus 7. Bradshaw gets 4% in a primary today.
Jim Snyder is viewed favorably by 16%, unfavorably by 8% — a Plus 8. Snyder gets 4% today.
Edward Kryn is viewed favorably by 13%, unfavorably by 9% — a Plus 4. Kryn gets 3% today.

Of those North Carolina adults who are familiar with the story of coal ash from Duke Energy spilling into the Dan River, 61% disapprove of the way the state responded to the spill, more than twice the 23% who approve of the state’s response.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,100 North Carolina adults 03/17/14 through 03/19/14. Of the adults, 1,885 were registered to vote in the state. Of the registered, 405 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/06/14 GOP Primary. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of GOP Primary voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of GOP Primary voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

2 Months to GA Primary, Perdue and Kingston Battle to Make Runoff and Right to Face Nunn in November; Other GA Races Analyzed

SurveyUSA Operations - 28 days ago

 

2 months till the 2014 Georgia Primary, clear frontrunners emerge in some high-profile contests but other lower-profile races remain a free-for-all, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WXIA-TV in Atlanta.

In the Republican Primary for Governor, Nathan Deal overwhelms 2 nominal challengers: Deal 65%, David Pennington.11%, John Barge 7%.

In a Republican Primary for U.S. Senator today, David Perdue tops 6 challengers, Perdue at 29%, Jack Kingston at 19%, with Phil Gingrey, Paul Broun, and Karen Handel effectively tied for 3rd place. A runoff is likely. The U.S. Senate Seat is open; Saxby Chambliss is retiring.

In the Republican Primary for School Superintendent, 9 candidates battle for name recognition and voter share of mind, with any outcome possible. 45% are undecided. The top 5 candidates have between 7% and 10% support levels. A runoff is certain. The sitting Superintendent, John Barge, is running for Governor.

In the Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator, Michelle Nunn decisively defeats 3 opponents, Nunn 48%, Todd Robinson 14%, Steen Miles at 11% and Rod Radulovacki at 5%. Nunn is likely to reach the 50% needed to avoid a 07/22/14 runoff.

In the Democratic Primary for Secretary of State, Doreen Carter defeats Gerald Beckum today, 45% to 22%. The winner faces incumbent Republican Brian Kemp.

In the Democratic Primary for Insurance Commissioner, Liz Johnson defeats Keith Heard 45% to 29%. The winner faces incumbent Republican Ralph Hudges.

In the Democratic Primary for State School Superintendent, Valerie Wilson and Denise Freeman are effectively tied, at 17% and 16%, for the right to advance to a runoff, followed by Alisha Thomas Morgan at 12% and Jurita Mays at 11%. A runoff is certain.

Georgia voters want to leave unchanged the state’s constitutional amendment that defines marriage as between one man and one woman. 59% want the amendment to remain in place; 32% want it repealed.

Georgians are divided on what to do about the recreational use of marijuana: 28% say possession should remain a criminal offense; 30% say possession should be changed to a civil offense, and 37% say possession should be decriminalized.

Of those Georgians who do not have health insurance, half will sign up for coverage under the Affordable Care Act, half won’t. Of those uninsured who won’t take advantage of the ACA, most say that the policies are too expensive.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,300 state of GA adults 03/16/14 through 03/18/14. Of the adults, 1,985 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 508 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/14 Republican Primary, 443 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/20/14 Democratic Primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (78% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (22% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In Minnesota, Both Democrats, Governor Dayton and U.S. Senator Franken, are Well-Positioned for Re-Election

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 44 days ago

In polling conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis St Paul, SurveyUSA asked Minnesota registered voters about 6 hypothetical head-to-head match-ups for Governor of Minnesota. Incumbent Democrat Mark Dayton is seeking a 2nd term. And SurveyUSA asked Minnesota registered voters about 6 hypothetical head-to-head matchups for U.S. Senator from Minnesota. Incumbent Democrat Al Franken is seeking a 2nd term.

Governor Dayton is above 50% against each of his 6 possible Republican challengers. Here is the rundown:

Dayton 53%, Republican Scott Honour 33%.
Dayton 53%, Republican Dave Thompson 32%.
Dayton 52%, Republican Jeff Johnson 34%.
Dayton 52%, Republican Kurt Zellers 31%.
Dayton 52%, Republican Rob Farnsworth 31%.
Dayton 51%, Republican Marty Seifert 34%.

Senator Franken is at or near 50% against each of his 6 possible Republican challengers, though 2 challengers are within 8 points. Here is the rundown:

Franken 50%, Republican Mike McFadden 40%.
Franken 50%, Republican Harold Shudlick 36%.
Franken 50%, Republican Monti Moreno 36%.
Franken 49%, Republican Julianne Ortman 41%.
Franken 49%, Republican Chris Dahlberg 41%.
Franken 49%, Republican Jim Abeler 37%.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 600 state of MN adults 02/25/14 through 02/27/14. Of the adults, 545 were registered to vote, and were asked about the election pairings. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (69% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (31% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

San Diego By 2:1 Agrees With Police Chief’s Decision to Resign; Most Think He Was Forced Out

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 48 days ago

 

San Diego is split on the quality of the police department. 35% have a lot of confidence in the police, 42% have a little confidence and 15% have no confidence at all, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KGTV-TV 10News and the Union-Tribune Newspaper.

48% agree with the decision of William Lansdowne to resign as police chief. 22% disagree.

62% say Lansdowne was pressured to resign. 22% say Lansdowne resigned on his own.

One third say Lansdowne should be replaced by someone within the department. One third say he should be replaced by someone from outside the department. One third say it doesn’t matter.

10% say Lansdowne’s replacement should be a man; 20% say it should be a woman. 69% say it makes no difference.

14% say the new police chief should be a minority. 7% say it should not be a minority. 77% say it makes no difference.

80% in Florida Say ACA Obamacare Restaurant Surcharge is Inappropriate; 58% less likely to Eat There.

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 48 days ago

 

Tampa area adults overwhelmingly label inappropriate a Florida restaurant’s decision  to add a 1 percent surcharge to each customer’s check, allegedly to cover the cost of the Affordable Care Act, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV. 58% of Tampa Bay area adults say the surcharge makes it less likely they would eat at such a restaurant.

 

In U.S. Senate Barnburner, KY Democrat Grimes Edges Republican Icon Mitch McConnell, Assuming McConnell Survives Primary Challenge

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 52 days ago

Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell, a Republican fixture in the United States Senate, finds himself in a fierce uphill fight against Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes in the 11/04/14 general election, according to a Bluegrass Poll conducted for the Louisville Courier-Journal, the Lexington Herald-Leader, WHAS-TV Louisville and WKYT-TV Lexington.

It’s the challenger Grimes 46%, the incumbent McConnell 42%, in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup today, the survey of 1,082 registered KY voters finds. Such a match-up assumes that McConnell survives a 05/20/14 GOP Primary challenge from fellow Republican Matthew Bevin. At this hour, McConnell is well positioned, up 55% to 29% over the more conservative Bevin, among 404 eligible registered Republicans. But the increasingly contested primary means a battered McConnell is being attacked from all sides.

In the general-election match-up: McConnell has the support of conservatives, and Grimes has the support of liberals, both of which are to be expected. But Grimes outperforms McConnell 5:3 among moderates, and on this rock she builds her church. McConnell leads in Eastern and Western KY. Grimes leads in greater Louisville and North Central KY.

Republican voters are split on whether McConnell is too combative or too conciliatory: 35% of Republicans say McConnell compromises too much with Democrats, 20% say he compromises too little, and 32% say he compromises just the right amount. By contrast: 19% say Matt Bevin would, if elected, compromise too much, 16% say Bevin would compromise too little, and 22% say Bevin would compromise just the right amount. As you might expect, 43% are not sure about what Bevin would do if elected.

Among all registered voters:

  • McConnell is viewed favorably by 27%, unfavorably by 50%. (Minus 23).
  • Grimes is viewed favorably by 26%, unfavorably by 27%. (Minus 1). 29% are neutral on Grimes, another 18% have no opinion.
  • Bevin is viewed favorably by 10%, unfavorably by 17%. (Minus 7). 37% are neutral on Bevin, another 37% have no opinion.

Other findings from the Bluegrass Poll:

  • President Barack Obama has a Minus 26 Net Job Approval: 34% approve of Obama, 60% disapprove.
  • Mitch McConnell has a Minus 28 Net Job Approval, slightly worse than the President: 32% approve of McConnell, 60% disapprove.
  • By contrast, KY Governor Steve Beshear has a Plus 20 Net Job Approval: 54% approve of Beshear, 34% disapprove.
  • Among all registered voters, Rand Paul has a Plus 1 Net Job Approval: 46% approve of Paul, 45% disapprove.
  • Among just registered Republicans, 33% say Paul should run for President in 2016. 24% say Paul should run for re-election to the U.S. Senate in 2016. 23% say Paul should run for both offices simultaneously, if the law permits. And 16% say Paul should not run for office in 2016.
  • By the narrowest margin, Kentucky favors repealing the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. 49% say repeal, 44% say fix as needed.
  • By 2:1, Kentucky favors raising the minimum wage to $10.10. 61% support a raise, 32% want the wage to remain at $7.25.
  • By 7:4, Kentucky supports a law that would ban smoking in bars and restaurants. 57% favor, 33% oppose.
  • By 3:2, Kentucky supports allowing the use of medical marijuana. 52% favor, 37% oppose.
  • By 5:3, the state is opposed to allowing gays and lesbians to marry. 35% favor, 55% oppose.
  • Support for a state constitutional amendment that would give voters a right to approve or reject specific local sales taxes runs 60% to 24% in favor. When the same question was asked 02/23/13, 72% supported an amendment, 19% opposed.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents were included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 state of KY adults 01/30/14 through 02/03/14. Of the adults, 1,082 were registered to vote in the state of Kentucky. Of the registered, 404 were registered as Republicans, and are eligible to vote in the Republican Primary. Primary questions asked only of Republicans. Other questions asked of all registered voters. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (23% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, or other electronic device.

 

 

Voters Want Full Disclosure about Who Owns Keystone Pipeline Oil and Where It’s Headed

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 56 days ago

SurveyUSA conducted 10 separate, identical, simultaneous polls on the Keystone XL Pipeline, including one nationwide poll and 9 polls in 9 states for NextGen Climate Action. Results of the polls are here:

* USA
* Alabama
* Florida
* Iowa
* Louisiana
* Michigan
* New Hampshire
* North Carolina
* Ohio
* South Carolina

Across geographies, voters are concerned about the possibility that oil flowing through the Keystone XL Pipeline may not remain in America, and worry that foreign oil companies, some with connections to foreign governments, may have a say about where Keystone XL Pipeline oil ultimately ends up. Voters are concerned about who owns the tar sands where the oil originates, are concerned about whether a foreign or domestic entity is responsible for the maintenance of the Pipeline as is crosses American soil, and are concerned about how much of the oil stays in America once it is refined on America’s Gulf Coast. Voters are impatient with Senators who may have been persuaded to vote for the Pipeline by lobbyists with foreign ties. And voters are suspect of a US State Department study which may have had a faulty premise as its underpinning. Just as striking is how these findings cut across party lines. Consensus on key Pipeline policy is shared by liberals and conservatives, Republicans and Democrats, the less educated and the more educated, the less affluent and the more affluent.


Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in these 10 Separate Public Opinion Polls on the Keystone XL Pipeline.
SurveyUSA interviewed a total of 5,500 USA registered voters 02/10/14 through 02/11/14, as follows: 1,000 registered voters from a nationally representative sample and 500 registered voters from each of the following 9 states: Alabama, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Louisiana, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

Fletcher Emerges as Clear Front Runner in San Diego Special Election to Erase Filner Stain

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 09/24/13 12:26 PM

One month till early voting begins in the special election to replace Bob Filner as Mayor of San Diego, Nathan Fletcher emerges with a strong coalition that puts him atop Kevin Faulconer, who finishes 2nd today, and David Alvarez, who finishes 3rd.

Fletcher gets 30% of the votes in a crowded field, with broad support from middle-aged voters, Democrats, whites and Asians. Fletcher’s coalition includes the most educated and the most affluent. Voters focused on Leadership and Reaching Across Party Aisle pick Fletcher.

Faulconer gets 22% today, backed by Republicans, conservatives, men and seniors. Voters focused on integrity in government pick Faulconer.

David Alvarez gets 17% today. He is backed by Hispanics, young voters, liberals and those with the least formal education.

If no one candidate receives 50% of the votes in the 11/19/13 special election, a runoff will follow. In head-to-head matchups for the hypothetical runoff, SurveyUSA finds:

Fletcher defeats Faulconer 44% to 30%.
Fletcher defeats Alvarez 52% to 24%.
Faulconer and Alvarez effectively tie, 38% Faulconer, 35% Alvarez.

Cell-phones and home-phones are included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 city of San Diego adults 09/19/13 through 09/23/13. Of the adults, 686 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 527 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the special election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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