In Washington State, Early ‘Banked’ Votes Are Salvation for Democrats Clinton, Inslee and Murray; Late Red Tide May Turn Evergreen And Other Blue States Purplish When Votes Are Counted; Carbon Tax Likely To Be Defeated

SurveyUSA Operations - 33 days ago

Intentionally or otherwise, FBI Director James Comey has turned the 11/08/16 general election upside down, triggering a red riptide that may extend beyond the top of the ticket, according to SurveyUSA research conducted in Washington State for KING-TV in Seattle.

Pollsters, like candidates, are in uncharted waters during these final 5 days of the 2016 campaign. That caveat acknowledged, here is SurveyUSA’s best take on the numbers we have gathered:

Democrat Hillary Clinton is way ahead among Washington state voters who have already returned a ballot, but the contest is effectively even among likely voters who have not yet voted. When the 2 groups are combined, it’s Clinton 50%, Trump 38%, minor party candidates 9%.

Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Inslee is way ahead among Washington state voters who have already returned a ballot, but Republican Bill Bryant leads among likely voters who have not yet voted. When the 2 groups are combined, it’s Inslee 50%, Bryant 43%.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray is way ahead among Washington State voters who have already returned a ballot, but Republican Chris Vance draws even with Murray among likely voters who have not yet voted. When the 2 groups are combined, it’s Murray 53%, Vance 41%.

Here are 3 different ways to interpret the discrepancy between early and late voters across all of the top-of-ticket contests:

1: Republicans in 2016 are all talk, no walk. They won’t show up on Election Day. Democrats cruise to victory in Washington State and elsewhere.
2: The air went out of the Democrats’ balloon with Comey’s 10/28/16 announcement; the wind is now at the Republicans’ back. All bets are off.
3: Clinton’s “ground game” has her just where she is supposed to be; the Comey announcement is a non-story.

Next Tuesday, we’ll know which of these hypotheses is correct.

Clinton leads by 31 points among the youngest voters but by just 5 among seniors. The younger the electorate, the better Clinton will do. Trump leads by 24 points in Eastern WA. Clinton leads 2:1 in metropolitan Seattle. Trump holds 85% of the Republican base. Clinton holds 94% of the Democratic base. Independents split. Moderate break for Clinton 5:3. Clinton leads by 12 points among the most affluent voters and by 22 points among the most educated voters. She leads by 22 points in urban Washington and by 19 points in suburban Washington. Trump leads by 10 points in rural Washington. Clinton leads by 29 points among single voters; married voters split. Clinton leads by 27 points among voters who have lived in Washington State less than 20 years. Clinton leads by just 7 points among those who have lived in Washington more than 20 years.

Among voters who say honesty is the most important quality in a Presidential candidate, Trump leads Clinton by more than 2:1. Among voters who say integrity is the most important quality, Clinton leads Trump by 18 points. Among voters who say the economy is the most important issue in the choice of a President, Clinton leads Trump by 15 points. Among voters who say the Supreme Court is the most important issue, Trump leads Clinton by 20 points. Of Clinton backers, 64% are voting “for Clinton,” 35% are voting “against Trump.” Of Trump backers, 59% are voting “for Trump,” 38% are voting “against Clinton.”

Inslee leads by 23 points in metropolitan Seattle, edges Bryant in Western WA, but trails Bryant by more than 2:1 in Eastern WA. Inslee leads by 11 among women, and more specifically leads by 15 points among suburban women. Bryant leads by 14 points among rural men, but trails by 14 points among urban men and by 4 points among suburban men. Inslee leads by 21 points among the youngest voters, but trails Bryant by 3 points among seniors. Of Trump supporters, 92% vote for Bryant. Of Clinton supporters, 88% vote for Inslee, 9% defect to Bryant.

Of voters who say the economy is the most important issue in the contest for Governor, Inslee edges Bryant 49% to 44%. Of voters who say education is most important in the Governor’s race, Inslee leads by 52 points. Of voters who say taxes are most important, Bryant leads by 60 points.

Murray is positioned for reelection to her 5th term in the United States Senate, with a 33-point lead among urban women and a 23-point lead among suburban women. Vance leads by 10 points in military households and leads by 28 points in Eastern WA. Of those voting for the Republican Bryant for Governor, 84% vote for the Republican Vance for Senator, 13% cross-over for Murray. Of those who vote for the Democrat Inslee for Governor, 92% stay with the Democrat Murray for Senator.

In the election for State Superintendent of Public Instruction, a large number of undecided voters make the outcome uncertain. Among voters with a preference, Chris Reykdal edges Erin Jones 32% to 28%, but 41% of likely voters are not sure how they will vote for Superintendent. Among voters who say they have already returned a ballot, Reykdal and Jones are tied, 35% each. Too-close-to-call.

Initiative 1433, which would raise the minimum wage, leads 56% to 38% at this hour, with overwhelming support among early voters, tepid support among those who have not yet returned a ballot. 1433 leads by 35 points among high-school educated voters and by 35 points among lower-income voters. The measure is almost certain to pass.

Initiative 732, which would impose a carbon emission tax on the sale or use of certain fossil fuels, trails badly at this hour and is likely to be defeated. Republicans oppose 732 by nearly 6:1, conservatives oppose 732 by 7:1. Democrats favor 732 but only by 5:4.

Favorability Ratings: 

* 32% of voters have an extremely favorable opinion of President Barack Obama, 31% have an extremely unfavorable opinion.
* 14% of voters have an extremely favorable opinion of Clinton, 41% have an extremely unfavorable opinion.
* 12% of voters have an extremely favorable opinion of Trump, 51% have an extremely unfavorable opinion.

Context and Methodology: 

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Washington adults 10/31/16 through 11/02/16. All of the interviews for this survey were completed after the 10/28/16 announcement by the FBI that it had found State Department emails on a previously unknown electronic device. Of the adults interviewed, 734 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, just 2% say they will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates on the ballot. 3% say they almost never vote in a Presidential election but will vote in 2016 because they are uniquely drawn to one of the candidates. Of the registered voters, 681 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot or to be certain to do so before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (61% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (39% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In 2012, Obama carried Washington state by 15 percentage points over Republican Mitt Romney. In 2008, Obama carried Washington by 17 points over Republican John McCain. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry carried Washington by 7 points over George W Bush. In 2000, Democrat Al Gore carried Washington by 5 points. The last Republican to win Washington was Ronald Reagan in 1984. In 2016, Washington has 12 electoral votes.

In Fresno, Brand Appears To Have Slight Tailwind At Mayor’s Race Finish Line

SurveyUSA Operations - 34 days ago

In the non-partisan election to fill the open seat for Mayor of Fresno CA, Lee Brand appears to move ever-so-slightly ahead of Henry R Perea in the campaign’s final week, according to SurveyUSA polling commissioned by KFSN-TV.

Perea and Brand have been effectively even since SurveyUSA began polling the contest in August. Before today, the candidates had never been separated by more than 2 points. Now, with almost half of voters telling SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Brand finds himself in front, 51% to 40%.

Caution: This research was conducted at a time of great political instability, having to do with the FBI’s renewed interest in Hillary Clinton’s emails. Though the Fresno contest is officially non-partisan, Perea’s support is liberal, Latino and Democratic, and Brand’s support is white, conservative and Republican. It is impossible to know whether the results of this survey reflect an actual demoralized Democratic electorate, which may ripple up and down the California ballot on 11/08/16, or whether Democrats and liberals will rally in the campaign’s remaining 5 days, and Perea will outperform the numbers shown here.

Among voters who have already returned a ballot, Brand leads by 11 points, 53% to 42%.
Among voters who have not yet returned a ballot, but who promise to vote before polls close, Brand also leads by 11 points, 49% to 38%.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the city of Fresno 10/31/16 through 11/02/16. Of the adults, 701 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 595 who have already voted or who promise to do so. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (23% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Sitting Fresno mayor Ashley Swearengin is term limited. Swearengin won election in 2008 by defeating Henry R. Perea’s son, Henry T. Perea.

Status Quo In San Diego: Measure C Trails Among Early Voters And Late Voters, As Does Measure D

SurveyUSA Operations - 35 days ago

San Diego’s high-profile Measure C remains unlikely to reach the two-thirds super majority needed to become law, according to SurveyUSA’s final pre-election tracking poll conducted for KGTV-TV and the Union Tribune. Measure D could possibly reach a simple majority, but odds are, at this hour, that it too will be defeated.

Among voters who have already returned a ballot, C trails by 12 points, 54% against, 42% for. Among voters who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to do so before polls close on 11/08/16, C trails 43% to 39%. A super majority of 67% needed to pass appears out of reach.

Among voters who have already returned a ballot, Measure D trails 48% to 40. Among voters who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to do so before polls close on 11/08/16, D trails 35% to 30%. A simple majority is possible, but not likely.

Context and Methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 city of San Diego adults 10/31/16 through 111/02/16. Of the adults, 672 were registered to vote in the state of California. Of the registered, 604 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote before the 11/08/16 deadline. This survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (63% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (37% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

Trump Takes Lead in NC Amidst FBI Letter Controversy; Burr Leads Ross for Senate; Cooper and McCrory Neck-and-Neck for NC Governor

SurveyUSA Operations - 36 days ago

In an election for President of the United States held in North Carolina today, 11/1/2016, one week until votes are counted, Republican Donald Trump defeats Democrat Hillary Clinton by a 7-point margin, 51% to 44%, according to this latest exclusive WRAL-TV News Poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll conducted for WRAL-TV one month ago, Trump is up 7 points; Clinton is down 2.

Interviews for this research were conducted entirely after a letter from the FBI Director threw the election into chaos 10/28/16, at a time when America had learned additional emails related to the FBI probe into Clinton had been discovered, but not yet whether those emails had previously been reviewed by the agency or what content they contained. Significant volatility may exist in the coming week as more is learned.

Among men, Trump had led by 9 points one month ago, today leads by 23. Among women, Clinton had led by 12, today leads by 7. One month ago, Trump was backed by 87% of those identifying as (but not necessarily registered to vote as) Republicans; today, 95% of Republicans say they will vote for Trump. Among Democrats, 91% had said they were voting for Clinton; today, 92% say they will vote for her. Among those identifying as Independents, Trump had led by 5, today leads by 9.

Among rural men, a demographic crucial to the Trump campaign, Trump’s lead widens month-on-month from 26 points then to 44 points now. Among suburban women, critical to the Clinton campaign, Clinton’s lead falls, from 21 points last month to 15 points today. Clinton’s chances of capturing North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes may depend on whether or not she can re-capture these suburban voters; Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes may depend on the same.

Voting began on October 20 in North Carolina. Among the 40% of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already cast their ballots, Clinton leads by 6 points; among the 60% of voters who have not yet voted but promise to do so, Trump leads by 16.

In the election for United States Senator from North Carolina, Republican incumbent Richard Burr today defeats Democrat Deborah Ross 49% to 43%. Compared to one month ago, Burr is up 3 points; Ross is down 1. Ross leads by 8 among women, but Burr leads by 21 among men — a 29-point gender gap, up from a 19-point gap last month. Ross runs even with Burr among the youngest voters, but trails by 14 points among seniors. Ross leads Burr in greater Greensboro and is even with him in the Raleigh area; elsewhere, Burr dominates.

The race for North Carolina Governor has tightened, and Democrat Roy Cooper today holds a nominal 1-point lead over incumbent Republican Pat McCrory, 48% to 47%. Compared to one month ago, Cooper is flat; McCrory is up 3. Cooper leads by 14 points among women; McCrory leads by 12 points among men. Cooper holds a 9-point lead among those who have voted early; McCrory leads by 4 among those who have not yet cast their ballots.

Further down-ballot, incumbent Republican Dan Forest at this hour leads Democrat Linda Coleman by 7 points, 49% to 42% in the Lieutenant Governor race; Democrat Josh Stein leads Republican Buck Newton 47% to 43% in the contest to replace Roy Cooper as Attorney General.

Context and Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of North Carolina adults 10/28/16 through 10/31/16, in interviewing conducted entirely after the release of a letter from FBI Director James Comey to members of Congress. Of the adults, 718 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 659 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote on or before 11/08/16 in the Presidential election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Republican Mitt Romney defeated Democrat Barack Obama by 2 points in 2012; Obama defeated Republican John McCain by less than 1 point in 2008. North Carolina has 15 electoral votes.

1 Week Till Votes are Counted, Trump on Auto-Pilot in Reliably Red Kansas; GOP Moran Coasts to US Senate Finish Line

SurveyUSA Operations - 36 days ago

In 3 SurveyUSA tracking polls conducted for KSN-TV in Wichita, Republican Donald Trump led by 12 points on 09/12/16, led by 11 points on 10/17/16, and leads by 11 points today, 10/31/16. 30% of the interviews for this survey were completed before the FBI threw the election into chaos 10/28/16. 70% of the interviews for this survey were completed after the FBI announcement. The pendulum may swing yet further before votes are counted, but in this freeze-frame of research results: Trump led by 9 points before the FBI announcement. Trump led by 12 points after the FBI announcement.

Clinton resentment has increased. The percentage of Trump supporters who are voting “against Clinton” has gone from 38% on 09/12/16 to 47% on 10/17/16 to 50% today. At the same time, it is important to note that among voters who have already returned a ballot, in Kansas as elsewhere, Clinton is outperforming Trump. Specifically, Clinton leads Trump 50% to 42% among early voters. This may be a reflection of Clinton’s more sophisticated get-out-the-vote operation, or it could be evidence that Trump voters are fast to talk-the-talk but not so fast to walk-the-walk. Trump leads Clinton by 15 points among voters who have notyet filled out a ballot but who promise to do so before polls close.

In the contest for United States Senator from Kansas, incumbent Republican Jerry Moran is well positioned at this hour for a second full term, 24 points ahead of Democratic challenger Patrick Wiesner. 2 weeks ago, Moran led Wiesner 56% to 31%, today, 55% to 31%. Libertarian Robert Garrard is at 6% today, up 1 point from 2 weeks ago. In rural Kansas, Moran leads by 43 points. Among seniors, Moran leads by 36 points. Among evangelical voters, Moran leads by 59 points.

When voters turn their attention to the Kansas state legislature, 38% say it would be best if Kansas elected more conservatives, 34% say it would be best if Kansas elected more moderates, 17% say it would be best if Kansas elected more liberals.

When voters are asked whether they will vote to retain the 5 state Supreme Court justices who are on the November ballot, 20% say they will vote to retain noneof the justices; 26% say they will vote to retain all of the justices; 15% say they will vote to retain one justice; the rest of voters will pick and choose.

Statewide Favorability Ratings:

Democratic President Barack Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 19% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 41%.
Trump is viewed extremely favorably by 13% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 39%.
Clinton is viewed extremely favorably by 10% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 53%.
Republican Governor Sam Brownback is viewed extremely favorably by 5% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 52%.
Republican Senator Pat Roberts is viewed extremely favorably by 9% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 17%.
Moran is viewed extremely favorably by 15% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 9%.

Context and Methodology:

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Kansas adults 10/26/16 through 10/30/16. 30% of the interviews for this survey were completed prior to the FBI announcement 10/28/16 that additional Clinton-related emails of possible consequence had been identified on a device not previously known to the FBI. Of the adults, 693 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 624 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot or to be likely to do so before polls close on 11/08/16. 2% of voters interviewed for this survey said they almost always vote in Presidential elections, but would not vote in 2016 because they did not like any of the candidates on the ballot. An offsetting 4% of voters said they almost never vote in Presidential elections but would vote in 2016 because they were drawn to one of this year’s candidates. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (60% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (40% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Kansas has 6 electoral votes in 2016. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried the state by 22 points as Obama won a 2nd term. In 2008, John McCain carried the state by 15 points as Obama won his 1st term. In 2004, George W Bush carried KS by 25 points over John Kerry on Bush’s way to a 2nd term. In 2000, Bush carried KS by 21 points. Early voting began 10/19/16.

In NY’s 19th Congressional District, Unclear if Democrat Teachout Can Maintain Narrow Advantage Given Buffeting At Top of Ticket

SurveyUSA Operations - 36 days ago

7 days till votes are counted in the high-profile contest to fill the open seat in New York’s 19th Congressional District, either Democrat Zephyr Teachout or Republican John Faso may emerge victorious, with chaos in the Presidential contest and closeness in the polling data presented here combining to make the outcome uncertain, according to SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for WNYT-TV in Albany. The seat in the U.S. House of Representatives may be pivotal in determining which political party controls the U.S. House of Representatives in the next (115th) Congress.

At this hour, it’s Democrat Teachout 45%, Republican Faso 42%, with 13% of likely voters undecided. Here is why those numbers should be interpreted cautiously: 14% of the interviews for this survey were completed before the FBI announcement 10/28/16 that it had discovered State Department emails on a previously unknown electronic device. In SurveyUSA interviews completed before the FBI announcement, Clinton led Republican Donald Trump in New York’s 19th by 5 points, 47% to 42%. In interviews completed after the FBI announcement, Trump led Clinton by 3 points, 45% to 42%.

Lots of turbulence. Seat belts on.

If Teachout wins, it will be because of young voters, where she leads by 13 points, because of women, where she leads by 12, and because of lower-income voters, where she leads by 9. Voters who say health care is most important in their vote for Congress back Teachout by 24 points. Voters who say the environment is most important in their vote for Congress back Teachout 18:1.

If Faso wins, it will be because of high-school educated voters, where he leads by 32 points, and because of men, where he leads by 7. Voters who say corruption is most important in their vote for Congress, and voters who say that national security is most important in their vote for Congress, back Faso 2:1.

77% of those who vote for Trump at the top of the ticket back Faso down-ballot.
83% of those who vote for Clinton at the top of the ticket back Teachout down-ballot.
Teachout leads by 11 points among both moderates and independents.
For Teachout to seize the seat, she must prevent defections among these 2 groups in the campaign’s final week.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 675 registered voters from NY-19 10/27/16 through 10/30/16, using Registration Based Sample (aka: voter-list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 598 as likely to vote before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents, 26% of likely voters) were contacted by live interviewers, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, ensured the respondent’s safety, asked the questions, noted the answers, and remained on the phone until the interview had concluded. NY’s 19th Congressional District is a U-shape that wraps around Albany, extends to the Pennsylvania border and nearly to the New Jersey border on the bottom of the U, and includes most of the Catskill mountains. Incumbent Republican Chris Gibson, who won the district by 22 points in 2014, is not seeking re-election. Millions of dollars in outside money has poured into the district, in an attempt by the Republicans to hold this seat, and in an attempt by the Democrats to flip this seat.

With Presidential Finish Line in Sight, Early California Voters Limit Impact of FBI Investigation on Clinton Lead; Harris Safely Atop Sanchez in Fight for Boxer’s Seat; Prop 64 Likely to Pass, Legalizing Recreational Marijuana

SurveyUSA Operations - 36 days ago

In California, 7 days till votes are counted, Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 29 points among early voters but leads by just 17 points among voters who have not yet returned a ballot, according to SurveyUSA’s final pre-election tracking poll conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. This is an indication of what the fallout may be from the FBI’s newly announced interest in Anthony Weiner’s computer.

In 3 previous tracking polls, Clinton in California had led by 25 points, 26 points and 26 points; today, by 21. Two weeks ago, Clinton had led by 25 points among independent voters, now by just 9. The political seas are choppy; unclear how much water the Clinton ship will take-on in more competitive states.

In an election today for United States Senator from CA, to replace retiring Democrat Barbara Boxer, Democrat Kamala Harris defeats Democrat Loretta Sanchez, 47% to 27%. Harris’s 20-point advantage is effectively unchanged from her 21-point advantage 2 weeks ago.

Ballot Measures:

Proposition 56, which would increase the tax on cigarettes to $2 per pack, is favored to pass 60% to 33%.
Proposition 62, which would end the death penalty in CA and replace it with life in prison, trails by 11 points today, 39% in favor, 50% against.
Proposition 63, which outlaws large-capacity magazines and requires background checks on ammo purchases, leads 2:1 and will pass.
Proposition 64, which would legalize, regulate, and tax recreational marijuana, is backed 54% to 39%, and now appears positioned to become law.

Statewide Favorability Ratings: 

President Barack Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 38% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 26%.
Trump is viewed extremely favorably by 12% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 52%.
Clinton is viewed extremely favorably by 22% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 33%.
Governor Jerry Brown is viewed extremely favorably by 15% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 20%.
Dianne Feinstein is viewed extremely favorably by 17% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 20%.
Boxer is viewed extremely favorably by 17% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 23%.

Context and Methodology: 

SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of California adults 10/28/16 through 10/31/16. All interviews were completed after FBI director James Comey announced 10/28/16 new interest in emails on a previously unknown electronic device. Of the adults interviewed, 816 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 747 were judged by SurveyUSA to have already voted in the Presidential election or as certain to do so before polls close on 11/08/16. Of registered voters, 2% tell SurveyUSA they almost always vote in a Presidential election but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates. 5% of voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in Presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates. The survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (56% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (44% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the screen of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In Georgia, Clinton Unable to Seal the Deal, Trails Trump by 7 With 11 Days to Go

SurveyUSA Operations - 38 days ago

Democrats have high hopes for Georgia’s 16 electoral votes, but Hillary Clinton falls short in an election today, 10/28/16, according to SurveyUSA polling for WXIA-TV, the Tegna station in Atlanta.

Republican Donald Trump is at 49%, Clinton at 42%, and Libertarian Gary Johnson at 3% at this hour. Among voters who have already returned a ballot, Trump leads by 6. Among voters who have not yet returned a ballot but who promise to vote before polls close on 11/08/16, Trump leads Clinton by 8. When the 2 groups are combined, Trump leads by 7, up from a 4-point Trump lead when SurveyUSA last polled Georgia for WXIA in August.

Trump leads by 58 points among rural men, by 56 points among voters focused on immigration, by 46 points among evangelical voters, by 44 points among whites, by 37 points among rural women, by 28 points among seniors, by 26 points in Northwest GA (which includes Dalton, Rome and 53 counties to the North and West of Greater Atlanta), by 26 points among college-educated whites, by 22 points among middle-income voters and by 18 points among high-school educated men.

Clinton holds 93% of the Democratic base and leads among moderates by 17 points. Although she does have a 21-point edge among just suburban women, when all women statewide are compiled, Clinton leads by just 4 points, not enough to overcome Trump’s 21-point advantage among men statewide.

52% of Trump backers are voting “for Trump,” 46% are voting “against Clinton,” a material change from August.
63% of Clinton backers are voting “for Clinton,” 33% are voting “against Trump,” a slight change from August.
58% of Trump backers are enthusiastic about their candidates, compared to 67% of Clinton backers.
40% of Trump backers have reservations about their candidate, compared to 30% of Clinton backers.

62% of voters (87% of Republicans, 28% of Democrats) say Clinton’s leaked emails are important in 2016.
47% of voters (14% of Republicans, 88% of Democrats) say Trump’s income taxes are important in 2016.
46% of voters (15% of Republican, 85% of Democrats) say Trump’s history with women is important in 2016.
43% of voters (22% of Republicans, 73% of Democrats) say Trump talk about not accepting an election outcome is important.
27% of voters (42% of Republicans, 12% of Democrats) say Bill Clinton’s history with women is important in 2016.

 

Favorability Ratings: 

President Barack Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 27% of GA voters, extremely unfavorably by 36%.
Trump is viewed extremely favorably by 17% of GA voters, extremely unfavorably by 38%.
Clinton is viewed extremely favorably by 14% of GA voters, extremely unfavorably by 47%.

Respondent Filtering / Historical Context: 

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of GA adults 10/25/16 through 10/27/16. Of the adults interviewed, 683 were registered to vote in Georgia. Of the registered voters, 5% say they “almost always” vote in Presidential elections but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates on the ballot. An offsetting 5% say they “almost never” vote in Presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they are uniquely drawn to one of the candidates. These so-called “new” voters split; they do not disproportionately favor Trump. Of the registered voters, 593 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot or to be likely to do so before polls close on 11/08/16.

This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (64% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (36% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Georgia last voted for a Democrat for President in 1992, when Bill Clinton captured the state’s then 13 electoral votes by 1 percentage point over George H. W. Bush. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried Georgia by 8 points. In 2008, John McCain carried Georgia by 7 points. George W. Bush carried Georgia by 17 points in 2004 and by 12 points in 2000.

Out of Time, Trump Fails to Make Inroads in Minnesota Against Clinton, Who Now Leads By 10 With 12 Days Left

SurveyUSA Operations - 40 days ago

Democrat Hillary Clinton, who led Republican Donald Trump by 7 points in Minnesota a month ago, today leads Trump by 10 points, with the finish line in sight, according to SurveyUSA polling for KSTP-TV in in the Twin Cities.

At this hour, it’s Clinton 49%, Trump 39%, Libertarian Gary Johnson 5%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 2%. 11% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, and among those “early” voters, Clinton leads by 48 points, 71% to 23%. Sometimes early voters are a measure of enthusiasm for a candidate and other times early voters are a indicator of one campaign’s better-organized get-out-the-vote effort — the so-called “ground game.” Among voters who have not returned a ballot but who promise to do so before polls close 11/08/16, Trump trails by 5 points, 46% to 41%. To overcome Clinton’s stockpiled advantage and capture The Land of 10,000 Lakes’ 10 electoral votes, Trump would need to win “late” voters by 8 points.

If Johnson, Stein and all other minor-party candidates are scraped off the ballot and only Trump and Clinton remain, Clinton defeats Trump by 11 points in a head-to-head slugfest today, 53% to 42%.

Enthusiasm for both Trump and Clinton remains tepid: just 49% of Trump voters are voting “for Trump,” 48% are voting “against Clinton.” 58% of Clinton backers are “for Clinton,” 40% are “against Trump.” These numbers are largely unchanged month-on-month. 50% of Trump voters are enthusiastic, 47% have reservations. 54% of Clinton voters are enthusiastic, 45% have reservations.

One month ago, Trump led among independent men by 20 points, now that group is tied.
One month ago, Trump led among all independents by 6, now trails by 5.
One month ago, Clinton led among women by 15 points, now by 20.
One month ago, Trump led among voters with a high-school education by 6 points, now by 1.
One month ago, Trump led among Generation X by 8, now trails by 13. X marks the spot.

85% of Republicans but just 24% of Democrats say leaked emails from the Clinton campaign are important to this year’s election.
94% of Democrats but just 16% of Republicans say Trump’s history with women is important to this year’s Presidential election.
48% of Republicans but just 5% of Democrats say Bill Clinton’s history with women is important to this year’s Presidential election.

Approval Ratings:

President Barack Obama has a Plus 6 Net Job Approval Rating in MN: 50% of voters approve of the job Obama is doing; 44% disapprove.
Governor Mark Dayton has a Plus 8 Net Job Approval Rating in MN: 49% of voters approve of the job Dayton is doing; 41% disapprove.
U.S. Senator Al Franken has a Plus 21 Net Job Approval Rating in MN: 54% of voters approve of the job Franken is doing; 33% disapprove.
U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar has a striking Plus 33 Net Job Approval Rating: 59% of voters approve of the job Klobuchar is doing; 26% disapprove.
24% statewide approve of the job the Minnesota legislature is doing, 56% disapprove.

Filtering and Context: 

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Minnesota adults 10/22/16 through 10/26/16. Of the adults, 733 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 656 had either already returned a ballot or were judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to do so before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (67% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (33% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. 3% of registered voters today tell SurveyUSA that they almost always vote in a Presidential election but will not this year, because they do not like the candidates on the ballot, down from 6% a month ago. 2% of registered voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in a Presidential election but will this year because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates. Minnesota last voted for a Republican for President in 1972, when Richard Nixon carried 49 states. In 2012, Obama defeated Mitt Romney in Minnesota by 8 points. In 2008, Obama defeated John McCain in Minnesota by 10 points. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry defeated George W. Bush by 3 points in Bush’s attempt for a 2nd term. In 2000, Democrat Al Gore defeated Bush by 2 points in Bush’s bid for a 1st term.

In San Jose CA, Complicated Measure F, Sequel to Measure B, Appears To Have Enough Support to Pass

SurveyUSA Operations - 41 days ago

Measure F, a compromise designed to end fighting between San Jose City Hall and the labor unions that represent city of San Jose employees, has a broad coalition of support and may become law when votes are counted in 11 days, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by KPIX-TV, the CBS-owned station in the Bay Area. But that is far from certain.

Today, “Yes” leads “No” 39% to 16%. The problem? 46% of likely voters are not yet certain whether they will support or oppose F. The measure is not yet on voters’ radar, even though early voting is underway.

Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Yes leads No by 49 points.

F is backed by both Democrats and Republicans, though liberals are much more likely to support the measure than are conservatives. F is favored by whites and non-whites, by rich and poor, by the better educated and by the less-well educated.

Measure F is a compromise that attempts to preserve the essence of San Jose Measure B, which city voters approved in 2012 but which was tied up in litigation until it eventually was re-drafted this year as Measure F. Among those who voted Yes on B in 2012, 62% back F today.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 city of San Jose adults 10/24/16 through 10/26/16. Of the adults, 704 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 618 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to do so before polls close on 11/08/16. The survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (69% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (31% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Polling ballot measures and citizen initiatives is an inexact science. In general, having nothing to do with San Jose specifically and having nothing to do with 2016 uniquely, opposition to a ballot measure increases as Election Day approaches. Rarely does support for a ballot measure increase over time. Measure F must compete for voter brain space with the Presidential Election, the U.S. Senate election in California and dozens of statewide ballot measures.

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