In GOP Primary for MO Governor: 4 Republicans Clustered, Each With Path To Nomination; Tight Fight for Lt Gov and Attorney General; On the Democratic Side: Koster Certain To Be Democrats’ Choice for Governor; Carnahan Likely to be Lt Gov; Attorney General Is Toss Up

SurveyUSA Operations - 3 days ago

One week till votes are counted in the state of Missouri primary for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and state Attorney General, 3 of 6 high-profile contests are closely contested, with the winner too-close-to-call, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by KSDK-TV, Newschannel 5 in St Louis.

In the 08/02/16 Republican Primary 

In the Gubernatorial Primary, Eric Greitens, John Brunner, Peter Kinder, and Catherine Hanaway are clustered at this hour, each with a chance to become the GOP nominee. Greitens, who nominally is in 1st place with 25% of the vote, gets 38% support among Republicans who say the economy is the most important issue in 2016. He runs strong in the Ozarks, strong among middle-aged voters, strong among those Republican primary voters who live in union households, and strong in rural MO. Brunner, at 21%, has a broad coalition, backed by 22% of strong Republicans, 21% of Republicans, 22% of Independents who lean Republican, and 26% of independents. Brunner leads in greater St Louis and ties Greitens among evangelical voters. But: his support is disproportionately young, which in a primary is a concern. Kinder, at 18%, ties Greitens for 1st place among seniors, does well among self-described moderates, and runs away with the contest in Southeastern MO, known as the Bootheel. Hanaway, at 18%, leads among suburban women and finishes 2nd in greater St Louis.

Greitens has a Plus 2 Net Favorability Rating, Brunner has a Minus 1 Net Favorability Rating, Kinder has a Plus 5 Net Favorability Rating, and Hanaway has a Minus 1 Net Favorability Rating.

In the primary for Lieutenant Governor, Mike Parson edges Bev Randles in a vote today, 37% to 26%. Parson’s support is more to the right: he leads Randles 2:1 among strong Republicans and leads by 18 points among “very conservative” voters. Randles leads Parson 2:1 among independents and leads by 3 points among independents who lean Republican. Randles pulls even with Parson among the most educated Republican primary voters, pulls to within 4 points of Parson among urban Republicans, but Parson leads in all 5 regions of the state, and leads 2:1 among the least affluent primary voters.

In the primary for Missouri Attorney General, Kurt Schaefer and Josh Hawley are locked in a tight fight as the campaign heads for the finish line. Schaefer, at 39%, has young support, which in a primary can be less reliable. Hawley, at 34%, has older support, and leads by 13 points among voters age 65+. The contest is effectively even among women; whatever advantage Schaefer may have comes from men. The candidates are tied in greater Kansas City MO and in the Ozarks. Schaefer is nominally ahead by 4 points in greater St Louis, leads by 8 points in the Bootheel, and leads by 16 points in Northern MO. This contest could go either way.

In the 08/02/16 Democratic Primary 

Chris Koster will win the primary for Governor. He leads challengers 8:1.

Russ Carnahan will win the primary for Lieutenant Governor. He leads Tommie Pierson 5:1.

The Attorney General primary is a jump ball — Teresa Hensley at 41%, Jake Zimmerman at 39%. Gender is everything: Hensley leads by 9 points among women. Zimmerman leads by 7 points among men. Among suburban women, Hensley leads by 15 points. The more women who vote in the Democratic primary, the better Hensley will do. The more men who vote in the Democratic primary, the better Zimmerman will do. Zimmerman leads by 4 points among white primary voters; Hensley leads by 16 points among African American primary voters. Zimmerman leads in union households; Hensley leads in non-union households. Zimmerman leads in rural MO; Hensley has a 7-point advantage in urban MO and a 6-point advantage in suburban MO. Hensley is up 2:1 in greater Kansas City MO.

In the 11/08/16 General Election 

Donald Trump defeats Hillary Clinton 47% to 37% today, in interviews completed during and after the Republican National Convention and before the beginning of the Democratic National Convention. Trump leads, as expected, among men. But Trump also leads Clinton, though narrowly, among all state of Missouri women. When just suburban women are examined, Clinton is 8 points atop Trump. In the Bootheel, Trump leads 3:1. In the Ozarks, Trump leads by more than 2:1. In Northern MO, Trump leads by almost 2:1. Only in greater Kansas City, where Clinton leads by 10 points, and in greater St Louis, where Clinton leads by 6 points, does the Democrat make a stand. Trump and Clinton split the Independent vote; Clinton leads by 8 points among moderates. Trump leads 3:1 among Evangelical voters. Clinton manages just a 3-point advantage in union households.

About 

SurveyUSA interviewed 2,546 state of Missouri adults 07/20/16 through 07/24/2016. Of the adults, 2,268 are registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,943 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for President, 773 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/02/16 Republican primary and 500 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/02/16 Democratic primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (57% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (43% of registered voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Mitt Romney carried MO by 9 points in 2012. Barack Obama carried Missouri by one-tenth of 1 percent in 2008. George W Bush carried the state by 7 points in 2004 and by 3 points in 2000. All 3 top statewide offices — Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General — are “open” in 2016. There is no incumbent on the ballot: incumbent Governor Jay Nixon is term limited; incumbent Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder and incumbent Attorney General Chris Koster are running for Governor.

Race Relations, Police Relations in Portland OR Perceived to be Good; Nationwide, Bad; Community Divided Over ‘Black Lives Matter’

SurveyUSA Operations - 8 days ago

Residents of Portland, Oregon say race relations are mostly good in their neighborhood, but getting worse nationwide, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-2 News in Portland.

Among the findings:

58% of whites and 46% of non-whites say race relations in greater Portland are good.
23% of whites and 21% of non-whites say race relations in greater Portland are bad.
32% of whites and 31% of non-whites have a favorable impression of the slogan “Black Lives Matter.”
36% of whites and 42% of non-whites say they mostly agree with the intentions of Black Lives Matter.
39% of whites and 50% of non-whites say they mostly disagree with the intentions of Black Lives Matter
48% of whites and 65% of non-whites have a favorable opinion of the slogan “Blue Lives Matter.”
Just 12% of whites and 3% of non-whites have an unfavorable opinion of Blue Lives Matter.
37% of whites and 29% of non-whites say police are too quick to use deadly force in cases involving all races.
46% of whites and 42% of non-whites say police are too quick to use deadly force in cases involving black individuals.
3% of whites and 4% of non-whites say “most” police officers where they live are prejudiced against blacks.
50% of whites and 51% of non-whites say “none” of the police officers where they live are prejudiced against blacks.
Among whites, 19% say race relations in Portland are getting better, 21% say race relations are getting worse.
Among non-whites, 14% say race relations in Portland are getting better, 27% say race relations are getting worse.

When asked about race relations nationwide, here is what Portland area residents say:

50% of whites and 62% of non-whites say race relations in the United States are bad.
59% of whites and 58% of non-whites say race relations in the United States are getting worse.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 500 adults in a representative cross-section from the Portland DMA, which includes the city of Portland and 27 surrounding counties. In a normal cross-section of the Portland TV viewing area, 80% of respondents would be white (400 out of 500) and 20% would be minority (100 out of 500). African American respondents comprise 2% of the Portland DMA (or 10 respondents out of a sample size of 500) SurveyUSA over-sampled black respondents such that the number of African Americans interviewed was 3.8 times greater than in a normal cross-section. African Americans were then weighted down to their relative percentage of the population in producing the aggregated data shown here.

As Republicans Gather in Cleveland for RNC Convention, Majority in Kansas Say Delegates Should Be Bound To Candidate Who Won Primary; Trump Leads Clinton by 11 Points, Though Most of His Backers Have Reservations; GOP’s Moran Well Positioned For Re-Election to U.S. Senate

SurveyUSA Operations - 15 days ago

As Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Paul Ryan prepares to gavel the 2016 Republican National Convention to order, Republican Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton 47% to 36% in the red state of Kansas, with Libertarian Gary Johnson siphoning votes from Trump, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSN News in Wichita.

But will Trump be the Republican nominee? Yes, if Kansas voters have a say: 52% say delegates to the convention should be bound to the candidate their state obligates them to support, compared to 39% who say delegates should be free to vote their conscience. Within 7 days, Kansans will learn whether an attempt to deny Trump the nomination and replace him with an as yet unnamed alternative will succeed.

There is good reason for concern. Of those Kansans who vote for Trump in an election “today,” a majority, 54%, do so with reservations. 42% say they support Trump enthusiastically. Worse, 55% of Trump voters say they are not voting “for” Trump, but rather are voting “against” Clinton.

The news is not as bad for Clinton: 55% of those who vote for Clinton in an election “today” do so enthusiastically, compared to 41% who vote for Clinton with reservations. 60% of Clinton voters say they are voting “for” Clinton, compared to 39% who say they are voting “against” Trump.

The polarization of the Kansas electorate is striking:

77% of Democrats have an “extremely unfavorable” view of Trump.
77% of Republicans have an “extremely unfavorable” view of Clinton.

Trump leads narrowly among Kansas unaffiliated voters; Clinton leads materially among self-identified moderates. Libertarian Johnson, polling at 8%, has 3 times as much Republican support as Democratic support.

Trump wins evangelical voters by 37 points.
Trump wins military households by 29 points.
Trump wins rural voters by 22 points.
Trump wins suburban voters by 8 points.
Clinton wins urban voters by 7 points.
Greater Wichita, which includes Sedgwick and 64 surrounding counties, backs Trump by 14 points.
Greater Topeka, which includes Shawnee and 30 surrounding counties, backs Trump by 28 points.
Greater Kansas City KS backs Clinton by 5 points.

Trump leads by 40 points among those with a high-school education.
Trump leads by 8 points among Kansans earning less than $40,000 a year.
Trump leads by 21 points among Kansans earning $40,000 to $80,000 a year.
The wealthiest and most educated Kansans split.

Voters who say the economy is the most important issue facing the country narrowly back Clinton.
Voters who say terrorism is the most important issue overwhelmingly back Trump.
Voters who say national security is the most important issue split.

In the contest for United States Senator from Kansas, incumbent Republican Jerry Moran is well positioned at this hour to defeat either of the 2 Democratic challengers he may face in November. Moran leads Patrick Wiesner today 52% to 33%. Moran leads Monique Singh today 54% to 30%. 51% of Kansas voters have a favorable view of Moran, 32% have an unfavorable view.

By contrast:

40% have a favorable view of U.S. Senator Pat Roberts, 49% have an unfavorable view.
22% have a favorable view of Governor Sam Brownback, 72% have an unfavorable view (including 50% with an “extremely unfavorable” view).
47% have a favorable view of President Barack Obama, 52% have an unfavorable view.
41% (among all voters) have a favorable view of Donald Trump, 55% have an unfavorable view.
32% (among all voters) have a favorable view of Hillary Clinton, 66% have an unfavorable view (including 50% with an “extremely unfavorable” view).

About / Filtering / Context: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Kansas adults 07/08/16 through 07/11/16. Of the adults, 675 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 559 were likely to vote in the 11/08/16 Presidential election and 537 were likely to vote in the contest for U.S. Senator. Of the registered voters, 4% tell SurveyUSA that they always vote in Presidential elections but will not vote in this year’s Presidential election, because they do not like any of the candidates. Another 4% tell SurveyUSA that they almost never vote in Presidential elections, but in 2016 they will go out of their way to vote because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates. Although there are just a handful of these “new” voters, and caution should be used when extrapolating, new voters back Trump 4:1. “Protest” voters — those who say they will not vote for any Presidential candidate — offset; there are as many Democrats who will sit out 2016 as Republicans. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (60% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents, 40% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Kansas has 6 electoral votes. In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney carried Kansas by 22 points. In 2008, Republican John McCain carried Kansas by 15 points. In 2004, Republican George W. Bush carried Kansas by 25 points. In 2000, Bush carried Kansas by 21 points. Trump today leads by 11 points. Votes in the 2016 general election will be counted in 116 days.

Florida, 19 Wks Till Votes Counted, Clinton 4 Atop Trump; Marco and Murphy Tied in Pivotal Battle for Rubio’s Senate Seat; Amendment 2 Up

SurveyUSA Operations - 30 days ago

Donald Trump desperately needs Florida’s 29 electoral votes to capture the White House in 134 days. But in an election for President in Florida today, between presumptive Republican Party nominee Trump and presumptive Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton, Clinton edges Trump, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by Bay News 9 in Tampa and News 13 in Orlando.

At this hour, it’s Clinton 46%, Trump 42%, Libertarian Gary Johnson 2%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1%. 19 weeks until votes are counted, Trump leads among Florida’s white voters and among Florida’s Cubans, but trails among Florida’s non-Cuban Hispanics, Florida’s blacks and Florida’s Asians. Among “very conservative” men, a group Trump must dominate, he holds 73% of the vote, but loses 20%, who cross-over to Clinton. Among high-school educated men, Trump leads, as one would expect, but just by 16 points, 54% to 38%. Among the most affluent voters, who typically gravitate to Republicans, Trump and Clinton tie, 44% each.

In Southeast Florida, which includes Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties (Mar a Lago is in Palm Beach County), Trump trails 56% to 32%. Trump leads in Northwest FL, Northeast FL, and Central FL, and ties Clinton in Southwest FL, but that is not enough for him to overcome Clinton’s advantage in the population centers of Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Boca Raton. Clinton leads by 12 points among voters under age 50. Trump leads by 2 points among voters age 50+. Clinton leads by 11 points among women. Trump leads by 3 points among men — a 14-point gender gap.

Trump wins pro-life voters by 40 points, he wins gun owners by 22 points and wins Evangelicals by 28 points. Tea-Party members break 4:1 for Trump. Moderates break 5:3 for Clinton. Among voters who say the economy is the most important issue, Clinton leads Trump by 9. Among voters who say that national security is the most important issue, Trump edges Clinton. Among voters who say that immigration is the most important issue, Trump crushes Clinton by 45 points.

In a hypothetical election today for United States Senator from Florida, incumbent Republican Marco Rubio, who vowed not to seek re-election before seeking re-election, may or may not hold onto his seat, today’s poll results show. In a match-up against possible Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy, Rubio and Murphy tie, 43% each, at this hour. If the Democrats instead nominate Alan Grayson, Rubio today leads narrowly, 44% to 40%. Much can and will change in this contest as voters get re-accustomed to Rubio being back in the race, but for now, the contest is a jump-ball. Trump’s coattails, or lack of coattails, may help determine Rubio’s fate. The seat has national significance if the Democrats are able to pick-up 4 or more other U.S. Senate seats on Election Day.

The 08/30/16 Republican primary is not competitive — Rubio has 3 times as many vote as his 3 Republican challengers combined. The Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate is not yet on voters’ radar. The last 5 public polls released in the contest show, on average, 45% of likely voters to be undecided. SurveyUSA today finds 35% of likely Democratic Primary voters undecided. Among voters with a preference, Murphy is at 30%, atop Grayson at 21%, Pam Keith at 10%, Reginald Luster at 3% and Rocky De La Fuente at 2%. Any outcome is possible, though Grayson certainly would rather be in Murphy’s shoes today.

Amendment 2, which would legalize medical marijuana for individuals with certain conditions, is 3:1 favored to pass at this hour. Opposition to ballot measures increases as Election Day approaches. When votes are counted in 134 days, the “No” vote may be significantly greater than it is today.

Voter Screening / Historical Context: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,000 state of Florida adults 06/25/16 through 06/27/16. Research began as soon as names on the primary ballots were finalized 06/24/16. Most interviews were completed after the results of the British vote to leave the European Union were announced. Of the 2,000 adults interviewed, 1,873 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 555 were determined by SurveyUSA to be eligible and likely to vote in the 08/30/16 Democratic Primary, 618 were determined by SurveyUSA to be eligible and likely to vote in the 08/30/16 Republican Primary. Only voters eligible and likely to vote in each primary were asked the Senate primary horse-race questions. 1,678 survey respondents were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for President, other state offices and statewide ballot measures. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (66% of likely November voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (34% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In 2012, Democrat Barack Obama carried Florida by less than 1 percentage point. In 2008, Obama carried Florida by 3 percentage points. In 2004, George W Bush carried Florida by 5 percentage points. In 2000, a handful of votes separated Al Gore and Bush before The Supreme Court of the United States awarded the state to Bush. In 1996, Bill Clinton carried the state by 6 points, the largest margin of victory for either party in Florida in the past 25 years. In 1992 George Herbert Walker Bush carried Florida by 2 points.

Unlike Supreme Court of United States, San Diego is Not Evenly Divided on Question of Immigration

SurveyUSA Operations - 36 days ago

On a day when the Supreme Court of the United States split 4 to 4 on immigration, SurveyUSA finds San Diego County split 5:3. 34% of area adults say those in the United States illegally should be allowed to stay; 54% say undocumented individuals should be deported. Research conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV and the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Of the majority in San Diego County who say undocumented immigrants should be deported:

48% say all immigrants, including children born in America, should be deported.
34% say children born in America should be allowed to stay.
61% are willing to pay the estimated $4,000 each taxpayer would owe to underwrite the cost of mass deportation. 29% are not.

Of the minority in San Diego County who says that undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay in America:

91% say immigrants should have a path to citizenship.
72% say immigrants should be allowed to get a driver’s license.
84% say immigrants should be allowed to purchase health insurance.
86% say immigrants should be allowed to work for wages.
92% say immigrants should be allowed to attend public schools.
86% say immigrants should be allowed to attend state universities.

Could Bright-Red Utah Go ‘Blue’ For First Time in 52 Years? Clinton Starts-Off Tied With Trump

SurveyUSA Operations - 46 days ago

In a state that Republican Mitt Romney carried with 72% of the vote in 2012, that John McCain carried with 63% of the vote in 2008, that George W. Bush carried with 73% of the vote in 2004 and 67% of the vote in 2000, that Bob Dole carried with 54% of the vote in 1996, Republican Donald Trump today can only manage to tie Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, with 35% for each major-party candidate, as the primary season ends and the general election season begins, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for the Salt Lake Tribune and the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah. Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 13% today, 5 months until votes are counted; 16% of likely voters are undecided; and 1% of likely voters tell SurveyUSA they will stay home and not vote.

At this hour, 65% of all Utah voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump. That negative yard-marker grows from 43% among very conservative voters, to 56% among somewhat conservative voters, to 74% among moderates, to 90% among somewhat liberal voters, to 93% among very liberal voters. The only thing that Trump has going for him is that Clinton is liked even less. Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 67% of all voters, including 95% of very conservative voters, 86% of somewhat conservative voters, 55% of moderates, 25% of liberals and 20% of very liberal voters. When all Utah voters are asked to rate the quality of candidates for public office in 2016, just 5% say the quality is excellent, 72% say the quality is fair or poor.

Utah’s disaffection for Trump does not extend down-ballot to the 2 other high-profile statewide contests. Incumbent Republican Governor Gary Herbert, who is running for his 3rd term, defeats Democrat Mike Weinholtz by 21 points today in a general election vote. And incumbent Republican Senator Mike Lee, who is running for his 2nd term, defeats possible Democratic challenger Jonathan Swinton today by 11 points and defeats possible Democratic challenger Misty K. Snow today by 14 points.

Herbert has a Plus 24 Net Favorability Rating today: 48% of voters view him favorably, compared to 24% of voters who view him unfavorably. (48% minus 24% = Plus 24 Net Favorability Rating.) Jonathan Johnson, who is running against Herbert to be the Republican party nominee for Governor, but who trails Herbert among primary voters 3:1, is viewed favorably by 21% of voters, unfavorably by 25% of voters. 40% of voters have a neutral opinion of Johnson; 13% have no opinion.

Lee has a Plus 1 Net Favorability Rating today: 38% of voters view him favorably, 37% view him unfavorably, far worse than Governor Herbert, but, surprisingly, far better than Utah icon Orrin Hatch, who is viewed favorably by 33% of voters, unfavorably by 45% of voters, and who as a result has a Minus 12 Net Favorability Rating today.

In the contest for President, Trump leads in Congressional District #1, trails in Congressional District #3, and runs effectively even with Clinton in Congressional District #2 and #4. Trump leads by 19 points among Mormon voters, Clinton leads by 15 points among Non-Mormon voters, and by 38 points among voters who are not a member of an organized religion. Trump leads by 12 among voters with a high school education. Clinton leads by 9 among voters with a 4-year college degree. Trump leads by 5 among men; Clinton leads by 5 among women.

separate analysis has been prepared for the Mia Love vs Doug Owens general election in Utah’s 4th Congressional District.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed a total of 1,725 registered voters from the state of Utah, which included an oversample of 300 voters from Utah’s 4th Congressional District, using registration based sample (RBS, also known as: voter list sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. Once the 4th Congressional District was weighted to its correct proportion of the state, a representative universe of 1,425 registered voters was analyzed. Of them, 1,238 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for President, Governor and United States Senator. 517 were identified as likely to vote in the 06/28/16 Utah Republican primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephone (82% of likely November voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents; 18% of likely November voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Caution: interviews for this survey were conducted during a week when Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party were in the news in a positive light, celebrating Clinton’s clinching of the party’s nomination for President, and at a time when Donald Trump and the Republican Party were in the news in a mostly negative light, having to do with Trump’s comments about a federal judge. The Trump-Clinton contest can be expected to evolve during the 5 months between now and when votes are counted.

Context: The last Democrat to carry Utah was Lyndon Baines Johnson, who in 1964 carried 44 states including Utah’s then 4 Electoral Votes. Republican Richard Nixon carried Utah with 56% of the vote in 1968 and 68% of the vote in 1972; Republican Gerald Ford carried Utah with 62% of the vote in 1976; Republican Ronald Reagan carried Utah with 73% of the vote in 1980 and with 75% of the vote in 1984; George Herbert Walker Bush carried Utah with 66% of the vote in 1988 and 43% of the vote in 1992.

Republican Congresswoman Mia Love, Rumored by Some To Be A Possible Running Mate for Donald Trump, Has Her Hands Full Seeking Re-Election in Utah’s 4th Congressional District Against Democrat Doug Owens

SurveyUSA Operations - 49 days ago

In an election today in Utah’s 4th Congressional District, 1st-term incumbent Republican Mia Love trails Democratic challenger Doug Owens 51% to 45%, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for the Salt Lake Tribune and the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah.

Love, who is African American and known nationally, was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2014. She seeks a 2nd term. Her support is young. The younger the electorate, the stronger she will perform. Owens’ support is older; he leads by 16 points among voters age 50+. Love leads 8:1 among Strong Republicans. But that is overshadowed by Owens, who leads among Strong Democrats by 49:1. Owens wins independents by 54 points and wins moderates by 32 points. Owens leads by 7 among men and by 4 among women.

Among Mormons, Love leads by 26 points. Among non-Mormons, Owens leads by 37 points. Among voters who do not belong to an organized religion, Owens leads 5:1. Love leads ever-so-slightly among voters with a high school education. Owens leads by 8 points among voters who have attended some college, and leads by 6 points among voters with a 4-year college degree.

Love has a Minus 1 Net Favorability Rating: 39% of voters have a favorable opinion of Love, compared to 40% who have an unfavorable opinion of her. Love is viewed favorably by 81% of Strong Republicans and 66% of very conservative voters. But she is viewed unfavorably by 89% of Strong Democrats and by 80% of very liberal voters.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,725 registered voters from the state of Utah 06/02/16 through 06/08/16 using Registration Based Sample (RBS, also known as “voter list sample”), including an oversample of 300 registered voters from Utah’s 4th U.S. Congressional District. Only voters in the 4th Congressional District were asked about the Love-Owens contest. Of the registered voters from UT-04, SurveyUSA identified 573 who were likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (89% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (11% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Caution: this research was conducted at a time when Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party were in the news, celebrating Clinton’s clinching of the party’s nomination for President of the United States, and at a time when Donald Trump was in the news, in a mostly unflattering light, for comments he made about a federal judge. This contest is likely to evolve over the 5 months between now and the day votes are counted.

If Sanders Continues Run for President, Trump Defeats Clinton by 3 Points.

SurveyUSA Operations - 50 days ago

In a 4-way election for President of the United States today, 06/10/16, with Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Gary Johnson all candidates on the ballot, Trump defeats Clinton 35% to 32%, with Sanders at 18% and Johnson at 4%, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for The Guardian. Of those who vote for Sanders if his name is on the ballot, 73% say theirs is a vote “for” Sanders, 19% say theirs is a vote “against” Trump, and 7% say theirs is a vote “against” Clinton.

In a 4-way election for President with Sanders’ name not on the ballot, Clinton defeats Trump 39% to 36%, with Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 4%. 5% of all voters tell SurveyUSA they would “stay home and not vote” in this ballot constellation. Of those who vote for Sanders when Sanders’ name appears on the ballot, 13% say they will stay home if Sanders name is not on the ballot, 41% vote for Clinton, 15% vote for Johnson, 11% vote for Stein, and 7% defect to Trump.

With Sanders on the ballot, Clinton holds 54% of those who voted for Barack Obama in 2012. 24% vote for Sanders and 13% defect to Trump. With Sandersnot on the ballot, Clinton holds 66% of Obama voters, 14% defect to Trump.

With Sanders on the ballot, Trump wins suburban voters 35% to 30%. With Sanders not on the ballot, Clinton edges Trump among suburban voters, 37% to 36%. In either case, Clinton handily wins in urban areas and Trump handily wins in rural areas.

With Sanders on the ballot, voters age 18 to 34 split 32% for Clinton, 29% for Sanders, and 26% for Trump. With Sanders not on the ballot, Clinton wins the youngest voters by 14 points.

With Sanders on the ballot, very liberal voters split, 49% for Clinton, 42% for Sanders. With Sanders not on the ballot, Clinton gets 71% of very liberal voters. With Sanders on the ballot, Clinton edges Trump among moderates by a single point. With Sanders not on the ballot, Clinton wins moderates by 7 points.

With Sanders on the ballot, Trump wins the Northeast, Midwest, and South. Clinton carries only the West. With Sanders not on the ballot, Clinton carries the Northeast, Midwest, and West. With Sanders on the ballot, Trump wins Union households. With Sanders not on the ballot, Clinton wins Union households.

Trump leads Clinton by more than 20 points in military households. Clinton has a double-digit advantage among 1st-time voters. Trump wins white voters regardless of whether Sanders is on the ballot or not. Clinton wins the black, Hispanic and Asian vote regardless of whether Sanders is on the ballot.

Of all voters, 22% have an “extremely favorable” view of Clinton, 18% have an extremely favorable view of Sanders, 16% have an extremely favorable view of Trump.

Of all voters, 47% have an extremely unfavorable view of Trump, 39% have an extremely unfavorable view of Clinton, 20% have an extremely unfavorable view of Sanders.

Of all voters, 42% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party, 36% have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party, 21% have an unfavorable opinion of the Libertarian Party and 15% have an unfavorable opinion of the Green Party.

Sanders is seen as more honest than either Clinton or Trump. Sanders is seen as more committed to protecting the environment than either Clinton or Trump.

Voters were asked which Democrat should take Clinton’s place if for any reason she is unable to run. 49% say Sanders, 21% say Joe Biden and 21% say someone else should be the replacement Democrat.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,600 adults nationwide after the results of the 06/07/16 primary elections were known, and after Sanders’ speech late on 06/07/16 in which he said he would keep fighting. Of the adults, 1,408 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,254 are likely to vote if Sanders’ name is on the ballot, 1,201 are likely to vote if Sanders’ name is not on the ballot. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (47% of voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (53% of voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In Fresno, Late Charge By Brand May Overtake Perea, Or Perea May Hold On to Win Tuesday Primary, But November Runoff is Almost Certain

SurveyUSA Operations - 53 days ago

36 hours till votes are counted in the open primary for Mayor of Fresno CA, a late charge by Lee Brand may result in a suspenseful election night, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for KFSN-TV.

At this hour, it’s Henry R. Perea 36%, Brand 30%, with 3 other candidates further back and 9% of voters undecided. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Brand and Perea are tied, 35% each. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have not yet returned a ballot but will do so before polls close on Tuesday, Perea leads Brand 36% to 26%.

If Fresno’s Latino voters turn-out in larger numbers than SurveyUSA here forecasts, Perea may edge Brand. If Latino voters turn-out in smaller numbers, Brand may overtake. In either case, both Perea and Brand are likely to advance to a runoff general election on 11/08/16. Unless support for H. Spees, shown today receiving 17% of the vote, completely collapses, neither Perea nor Brand is likely to reach the “50% + 1 vote” majority that is necessary to win the Mayor’s seat outright on Tuesday and avoid a runoff.

In 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls, Brand has never led, Perea has never trailed. Perea led Brand by 19 points in February, by 12 points in April and May, and leads by 6 points today. Among Strong Republicans, Brand gets half of votes cast. Among Strong Democrats, Perea gets 3 of 4 votes cast. Independents and moderates break for Perea.

Among Latinos, Perea today gets 54% of votes cast, down from 63% in February, 61% in April and 66% in May. Still, no other candidate today is above 17% among Latinos. Among whites, Brand today edges Perea 35% to 30%. Perea had led among white voters in February, ran even among white voters in April, trailed Brand by 4 points among white voters in May and today trails Brand by 5 points among whites.

Among voters who say the city is well managed, Perea had led by 17 points in February but today trails Brand 35% to 32%. Among voters who say they are “just getting by” financially, Perea had led by 22 points, now leads by 7. Among middle-income voters, Perea had led by 16 points, now leads by just 4. Among “very conservative” voters, Perea started at 26%, ends at 9%.

One confounding variable: The city of Fresno Mayoral Primary is on the same day as the state of California presidential primary and U.S. Senate Primary. The Republican primary for President is no longer contested, and the Republican candidates running for U.S. Senate are of no consequence, so there will not be any coattails for Brand to ride. By contrast, Bernie Sanders may be making a late charge against Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary for President, which could increase Democratic turnout on Tuesday and help Perea. Perea leads Brand 2:1 among voters under age 50. The more Sanders’ succeeds in driving younger voters to the polls statewide, the better Perea will do.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 city of Fresno registered voters 06/02/16 through 06/05/16 using voter-list sample (also known as “RBS” sample) from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 588 had either already returned a ballot in the open, non-partisan primary or were certain to do so before the deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (89% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (11% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Sitting Fresno mayor Ashley Swearengin is term limited. Swearengin won election in 2008 by defeating Henry R. Perea’s son, Henry T. Perea.

In California’s 17th Congressional District, Incumbent Democrat Honda Will Advance to General Election Runoff in Re-Match With Democrat Khanna

SurveyUSA Operations - 64 days ago

2 weeks till votes are counted in California’s 06/07/16 primary, the open, non-partisan, Top-2 contest in the Golden State’s 17th Congressional District sets up as an exact re-run of the 2014 match-up, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KPIX-TV, CBS in San Francisco.

In 2014, then 1st-term Congressman Mike Honda was challenged by Democrat Ro Khanna and 2 Republicans. Honda and Khanna combined to take 3/4ths of the primary votes cast, and advanced to a November 2014 runoff, which Honda won narrowly.

Today, 2nd-term Congressman Honda is again challenged by Khanna, and by Democrat Pierluigi Oliverio, Republican Ron Cohen, Republican Peter Kuo and Libertarian Kennita Watson. Honda and Khanna again combine to take the lion’s share of the primary vote and, barring something extraordinarily unforeseen happening in the 2 weeks until votes are counted, almost certainly advance to a do-over-re-match on 11/08/16.

The exact research results at this hour show Honda at 31%, Khanna at 25%, Cohen at 7%, Kuo at 5%, and Oliverio and Watson each at 2%.

29% of voters are undecided. When the undecided voters finally pick a horse in this race, Honda and Khanna should again end up with about 3/4ths of the primary votes cast. It is possible that in the primary, Khanna may finish ahead of Honda, or, somewhat more likely, that Honda will finish ahead of Khanna, as these poll results show. Regardless, the same 2 candidates advance.

Honda and Khanna split the Asian-American vote. Honda leads narrowly among whites, and leads by larger margins among the district’s smaller Latino and African American populations. Among Republicans, Cohen and Khanna tie for the lead, with Honda and Kuo battling for 3rd place. Among Democrats, Honda leads decisively. Among Independents, Khanna has a narrow advantage. Among moderates, among the wealthiest voters, and among the most educated voters, Khanna and Honda run even. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Khanna has a slight edge over Honda, 33% to 30%, which may indicate Khanna’s voters are more enthusiastic and/or that Khanna has better organized voter outreach.

About: From 05/18/16 through 05/23/16, SurveyUSA interviewed 600 registered voters from CA-17 using Registration-Based Sample (aka: Voter List Sample) from Aristotle, in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 564 had either already returned a ballot (early voting began 05/09/16) or were certain to do so before the deadline. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents with a landline (home) telephone (69% of likely voters, were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents without a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents) (31% of likely voters) were interviewed on their cell-phone by a live operator who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, and asked the respondents the questions. Live interviewers remained on the call until completion. Honda defeated Khanna by 20 points in the 2014 primary, and by 3 points in the 2014 general. The seat was previously held by Democrat Sam Farr, who was redistricted to California’s 20th Congressional District at the end of 2012.

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