2 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted in CA U.S. Senate Primary, Harris & Sanchez Still Favored to Advance to 11/08/16 General Election; Clinton Well Positioned To Defeat Sanders in Primary, But Starts 10 Points Behind Obama in General Election Fire Fight With Trump

SurveyUSA Operations - 3 days ago

With early primary voting underway, Democrat Kamala Harris and Democrat Loretta Sanchez appear poised to advance to a runoff, ensuring that Barbara Boxer’s U.S. Senate seat continues to be held by a Democrat no matter which of these 2 candidates prevails in the 11/08/16 general election, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV in San Francisco, KGTV-TV in San Diego, and KFSN-TV in Fresno.

Today, it’s Harris 31%, Sanchez 22%. The 3 Republican candidates in the primary — Duf Sundheim at 9%, Tom Del Beccaro at 9%, and Ron Unz at 7% — combine to receive 25% of the primary vote. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Harris leads at 33%, followed by Sanchez at 21%, Sundheim at 11%, and Unz and Del Beccaro at 8%. There has been little movement in the contest since SurveyUSA began polling the contest in early April. Harris has never trailed. Sanchez has always run 2nd. The 3 Republicans have consistently split the conservative vote; no one of them has ever challenged Sanchez for 2nd.

In the Presidential primary, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 57% to 39%. The contest is unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll 3 weeks ago. Sanders continues to lead among the youngest voters. Clinton leads by 12 points among voters age 35 to 49, leads by 34 points among voters age 50 to 64, and leads by 45 points among voters age 65+. Clinton gets 57% of the primary vote in union households and gets 57% of the vote in non-union households. Clinton has majority support among every income group. Sanders leads by 2:1 among 1st-time primary voters.

Among all California voters, 48% have an extremely negative view of Donald Trump, 30% have an extremely negative view of Clinton, 13% have an extremely negative view of Sanders.
Among women, 52% have an extremely negative view of Trump, 27% have an extremely negative view of Clinton, 11% have an extremely negative view of Sanders.
Among strong Democrats, 44% have an extremely positive view of Clinton, 24% have an extremely positive view of Sanders, 2% have an extremely positive view of Trump
Among independents, 4% have an extremely positive view of Clinton, 20% have an extremely positive view of Sanders, 7% have an extremely positive view of Trump.
Among strong Democrats, 84% have an extremely negative opinion of Donald Trump.
Among independents, 41% have an extremely negative opinion of Donald Trump.
Among strong Republicans, 39% have an extremely positive opinion of Trump, compared to 4% who have an extremely positive opinion of Clinton and 11% who have an extremely positive opinion of Sanders.
Among independents, 7% have an extremely positive view of Trump, 41% have an extremely negative view of Trump.
Among moderates, 10% have an extremely negative view of Sanders, 23% have an extremely negative view of Clinton, 46% have an extremely negative view of Trump.

Looking ahead to the 11/08/16 general election for President, Clinton carries California today 52% to 38%, keeping the Golden State’s 55 Electoral Votes pale blue. Of concern to Democrats: Clinton leads Trump today by 14 points. Barack Obama carried CA by 24 points in 2008 and by 23 points in 2012. There is a Gender Gap at this hour: Trump loses California by 3 points among men, but loses by 25 points among women. It is unclear in the 170 days that remain until the next President is chosen whether this Gender Gap will close or open wider. Of greater concern to Democrats: among those who tell SurveyUSA they are paying “a lot” of attention to the 2016 election, Clinton defeats Trump in California today by just 9 points, 50% to 41%. Trump’s negatives have remained constant the past 3 times SurveyUSA has polled California; Clinton’s negatives have increased during that period.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,800 state of California adults 05/19/16 through 05/22/16. Of the adults, 1,598 were registered to vote in the state of California. Of the CA registered voters, 803 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 Democratic Presidential primary, 1,416 were determined to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 open, non-partisan U.S. Senate primary, and 1,383 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for President. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (62% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. California’s 55 Electoral Votes are 20% of the 270 that any candidate needs to be elected to the White House. For additional California context: John Kerry defeated George W Bush by 10 points in 2004. Al Gore defeated Bush by 12 points in 2000.

In Fresno, Mayoral Candidates Perea and Brand Fight To Be 1 of the 2 Who Advance From June Primary To Runoff Election in November

SurveyUSA Operations - 10 days ago

3 weeks till votes are counted in the open, non-partisan primary for Mayor of Fresno CA, Henry R. Perea leads Lee Brand and 3 other candidates, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KFSN-TV. But Perea does not appear positioned at this hour to reach the 50% plus 1 vote that is required in order to avoid an 11/08/16 runoff.

With early voting underway, SurveyUSA finds Perea at 38%, Lee Brand at 26%, H. Spees at 16%, Doug Vagim at 5%, and Richard Renteria at 3%. Among those who have already returned a ballot, Perea leads by 15 points. Among those who have not yet voted but who tell SurveyUSA they will on or before 06/07/16, Perea leads by 11 points.

12% of voters today are undecided. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, the number of undecided voters has dropped by 6 percentage points, from 18% to 12%. Each of the top 3 candidates picked up a couple of extra votes as a result:

Perea was at 36% two weeks ago, now at 38%.
Brand was at 24% two weeks ago, now at 26%.
Spees was at 13% two weeks ago, now at 16%.

If Perea were to receive 38% of today’s undecided voters, he would finish with 43% on Primary Election Day. Perea would need to receive every undecided vote to approach the 50% needed to win the Mayor’s seat outright.

Perea is backed by 2 of 3 Latino voters. Brand edges Perea 33% to 29% among white city voters. Brand runs strong among the oldest voters, where he inches to within 3 points of Perea, 33% for Perea to 30% for Brand. The older the 06/07/16 primary electorate is, the better Brand will perform. The younger the primary electorate, the better Perea will perform. Perea leads by 41 points among voters age 35 to 49.

Perea leads Brand both among voters who say the city is well managed and among voters who say the city is poorly managed. And, regardless of which issue voters say is most important — crime, gangs, economic development or homelessness — Perea leads Brand.

Brand leads among Strong Republicans and Republicans. Brand and Perea tie among Independents who Lean Republican. Perea leads among Independents, Independents who Lean Democratic, Democrats and Strong Democrats. Brand leads narrowly among the city’s most affluent voters; Perea leads among middle-income and lower-income voters.

The city of Fresno Mayoral Primary is held on the same day as the state of California presidential primary and U.S. Senate Primary. At one point, it appeared that the Republican presidential nominee would be determined by California, in which case Republican turnout statewide would have been higher, helping Brand. Now, the Republican and Democratic presidential nominations are all-but-decided, and so Fresno candidates will have to generate their own tailwind.

60% of white primary voters vote for someone other than Perea, so were Perea to face Brand one-on-one in November, the outcome is far from certain.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 city of Fresno registered voters using voter-list sample (also known as “RBS” sample) from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 589 were likely to vote in the 06/07/16 open, non-partisan primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (88% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (12% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Sitting Fresno mayor Ashley Swearengin is term limited. Swearengin won election in 2008 by defeating Henry R. Perea’s son, Henry T. Perea.

Top 3 CA Primary Contests Not Close At This Hour — Democrats Harris, Sanchez Likely to Advance to Runoff In Fight for Boxer’s Senate Seat; Clinton Now 3:2 Atop Sanders; Cruz and Kasich No Longer Competitive, Though Congressional-District Delegate-Math Does Matter to Trump

SurveyUSA Operations - 24 days ago

5 weeks till votes are counted in the 06/07/16 California primary, a majority of Republicans are resigned to vote for unpopular Donald Trump, a majority of Democrats are resigned to vote for unpopular Hillary Clinton, and 2 Democrats are poised to advance to the 11/08/16 U.S. Senate general election, which gives Republicans little chance to pick up Barbara Boxer’s seat, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, KPIX-TV in San Francisco, KGTV-TV in San Diego and KFSN-TV in Fresno.

Today, it’s Trump 54%, Ted Cruz 20%, John Kasich 16%. One month ago, at the height of what some saw as Trump’s inevitable self-destruction, a Los Angeles Times Poll found Trump just 1 point ahead of Cruz. Since then, polls have shown Trump’s lead expanding to 7 points, then 8, then 18, then 27 points and now, today 05/02/16, 34 points. Whatever chance Cruz or Kasich may once have had to cramp Trump is gone. The only suspense that remains is whether Trump will collect all 172 of the Golden State’s Republican National Convention delegates, which Trump would do if he wins each of California’s 53 U.S. Congressional Districts. Each convention delegate is precious at this hour, as Trump tries to secure a 1st-ballot nomination and avoid the chaos that would come with a Cleveland floor-fight. Should Cruz and Kasich supporters see the California primary outcome as a foregone conclusion, and fail to turn out, Trump may succeed at capturing all 172. Or, if confident Trump backers sense they have the contest in hand and fail to turn out on 06/07/16, Trump and his delegate man Paul Manafort may allow the deal to go unsealed.

Today, it’s Clinton 57%, Bernie Sanders 38%. No recent poll has shown Clinton with this large of a lead in California, but this is the first California poll to be conducted after Sanders laid off 225 paid campaign workers and after 4 losses on 04/26/16, the day before interviewing began for this study. Clinton’s 1st-ballot nomination is much more secure than is Trump’s, and when the East Coast wakes up on Wednesday 06/08/16 to see how much Sanders lost by in California, Clinton will have just 46 days to turn Bernie backers from “November-stay-at-homes” into enthusiastic Clinton supporters before Democrats gather in Philadelphia.

Of significance:

51% of registered voters and 88% of “Strong Democrats” have an “extremely negative” view of Trump. 14% of registered voters and 45% of “Strong Republicans” have an “extremely positive” view of Trump

28% of registered voters and 69% of “Strong Republicans” have an “extremely negative” view of Clinton. 16% of registered voters and 51% of “Strong Democrats” have an “extremely positive” view of Clinton.

By contrast, just 9% of registered voters have an “extremely negative” view of Kasich; 28% of registered voters have an “extremely negative” view of Cruz.

In the open, non-partisan, Top-2 primary for United States Senator, Republicans Tom Del Beccaro, Ron Unz and Duf Sundheim split conservative voters, paving the way for Democrats Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez to finish 1 and 2, and advance to an 11/08/16 runoff. Harris gets 29% today, Sanchez 18%. Harris gets 32% of the white vote, 58% of the black vote, 19% of the Latino vote and 29% of the Asian vote. Sanchez gets 11% of the white vote, 18% of the black vote, 36% of the Latino vote and 9% of the Asian vote.

Del Beccaro at 10%, Unz at 8% or Sundheim at 7% could overtake Sanchez if Latinos vote in smaller numbers than here shown. A best-case scenario for the 3 Republican Senate candidates had been that the outcome of the Democratic presidential primary was a foregone conclusion (suppressing Democratic turnout statewide), but that the Republican presidential primary would be white hot (boosting Republican turnout statewide). But that seems unlikely, even with Cruz picking Californian Carly Fiorina to be his running mate and even with Kasich continuing to be the least polarizing option.

Harris’ support is older, which in a primary often translates to be “more reliable.” Sanchez’ support is younger. Harris runs 1st in all 4 regions of the state; she leads Sanchez and Del Beccaro by 35 points in the Bay Area, leads Sanchez by 9 points in the Central Valley, leads Sanchez by 3 points in greater Los Angeles, and leads Sanchez by a nominal 1 point in the Inland Empire. Among very conservative voters, Del Beccaro leads with 21%, followed by Sundheim at 17% and Unz at 14%. Among very liberal voters, Harris leads with 57% to Sanchez’ 24%. Harris runs ever-so-slightly stronger among women than men, and Unz’s support is twice as strong among men as women, but otherwise, there are no gender gaps to note.

In hypothetical head-to-head match-ups today for the 11/08/16 general election for President:

Clinton defeats Donald Trump 56% to 34%.
Clinton defeats Cruz 57% to 29%.
Clinton defeats Kasich 53% to 34%.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 state of California adults 04/27/16 through 04/30/16. All interviews were conducted after results of the 04/26/16 primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island were known. Of the adults, 2,011 were registered to vote in the state of California. Of the CA registered voters, 529 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 Republican Presidential primary, 826 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 Democratic Presidential primary, 1,502 were determined to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 open, non-partisan U.S. Senate primary, and 1,683 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (61% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (39% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Barack Obama carried CA by 24 points in 2008 and by 23 points in 2012.

5 Weeks Till Fresno Mayoral Primary, Perea and Brand Positioned to Advance to General Election Runoff

SurveyUSA Operations - 31 days ago

Henry R. Perea leads the 5-candidate open-primary contest for Mayor of the city of Fresno CA, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KFSN-TV. But if Perea does not receive a majority of the vote on 06/07/16 (50% plus 1 vote), the top 2 finishers will advance to an 11/08/16 runoff.

At this hour, it’s Perea 36%, Lee Brand 24%, H Spees 13%, Doug Vagim 6%, and Richard Renteria 3%. 18% of likely primary voters are undecided, which is material to the primary finish. If the 18% of voters who are undecided today break proportionally across all 5 candidates, Perea would finish with 44% of the vote — short of a majority. Perea would need to receive 3 out of every 4 undecided votes to win the primary outright and avoid a runoff.

Perea is backed by 6 of 10 Latino voters. Perea and Brand split the white vote, each candidate with 29%. Brand runs strong among the oldest voters, where he creeps to within 5 points of Perea. The older the 06/07/16 primary electorate is, the better Brand will perform. The younger the primary electorate, the better Perea will perform.

Perea and Brand run almost even among those likely Fresno voters who say the city is well managed. Among voters who say the city is not well managed, Perea leads by 17 points. Among voters who say crime is the most important issue facing the city, Perea and Brand are tied. Perea leads in single digits among voters who say that gangs or economic development are the most important city issues. Perea leads in double digits among voters who say that homelessness is the city’s most important issue.

Brand leads Spees 39% to 23% among voters who say they are strong Republicans. Brand leads Spees 43% to 17% among voters who say they are Republicans. Perea leads Spees 71% to 4% among strong Democrats. Perea leads Spees 62% to 10% among Democrats. Moderates and independents choose Perea.

Even if Brand were to overtake Perea in the primary, the same 2 candidates would advance to the general election, though Brand would have more of a tailwind. To overtake Perea, Brand needs wealthy Freno voters — among whom he narrowly leads — to be a larger percentage of the electorate than the 32% SurveyUSA herein forecasts, and he needs Republicans (and strong Republicans) to be more than the 41% of the electorate that SurveyUSA forecasts here.

Compared to a SurveyUSA KFSN-TV poll conducted 8 weeks ago, before Vagim and Renteria entered the race, Perea had led Brand by 19 points. Today, Perea leads Brand by 12 points. Vagim and Renteria combine for 9% of the vote.

The city of Fresno Mayoral Primary will coincide with the state of California presidential primary, also to be held on 06/07/16. If the Republican nomination fight has not been settled by that date, and if the Democratic nomination fight has been settled by that date, Republicans may vote in larger numbers than Democrats in the statewide primary. It is unclear to what extent this would affect the Fresno Mayoral Primary, but these survey results suggest that such a scenario would favor Brand. At the same time, there is an open primary for United States Senator from California on 06/07/16, and turnout for that statewide primary may also be a tail that wags the city of Fresno dog.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 750 city of Fresno registered voters using voter-list sample (also known as “RBS” sample) from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 571 were likely to vote in the 06/07/16 open, non-partisan primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (87% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (13% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Sitting Fresno mayor Ashley Swearengin is term limited. Swearengin won election in 2008 by defeating Henry R. Perea’s son, Henry T. Perea.

NC Voters Continue to Wrestle With HB2 Fallout: Majority in State Now Opposes New ‘Bathroom’ Law in General, But Supports Specific Birth-Gender Provision; Ongoing Economic Toll Impacts 2016 Gov Race, Where Democrat Cooper Now Leads GOP Incumbent McCrory

SurveyUSA Operations - 44 days ago

North Carolina voters are conflicted about the state’s new “bathroom” law, HB2, as they wrestle with both the law’s specific provisions but also the law’s ongoing cultural and economic fallout, according to brand new opinion research conducted exclusively for WRAL-TV in Raleigh.

Today, 38% support the new law, 50% oppose. Support for the law is greatest among strong Republicans, 62%; among very conservative voters, 61%; and among evangelicals, 53%. Opposition to HB2 is greatest among strong Democrats, 72%; very liberal voters, 84%; liberals, 80%; people who almost never attend religious services, 62%; and among voters who say they know someone who is transgender, 61%. A majority opposes HB2 in greater Charlotte and greater Greensboro, a plurality opposes HB2 in greater Raleigh and in Southern and Coastal NC.

But matters are not so simple:

56% of North Carolinians agree with the provision of the law (46% strongly agree) that requires transgender individuals to use the bathroom of their birth, and not the bathroom of their choosing. 56% say that allowing a transgender individual to use the public restroom of their choice does pose a security risk for women and children. Those provisions notwithstanding, a majority in NC (52%) say gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender individuals should be protected against discrimination, versus 36% who say LGBT individuals should not be protected. The younger you are, the more likely you are to say LGBT individuals should be protected by law against discrimination. Those who attend church regularly are divided on the issue, 44% in favor, 45% against.

61% of Tar Heel voters say HB2 has hurt North Carolina’s image nationally. Just 18% say HB2 has helped the state’s image. The same number, 61%, say that HB2 has hurt North Carolina’s ability to attract and keep businesses. Just 11% say the law has helped the state attract and keep businesses, 19% say it has had no impact. At this hour, 37% of voters say the law should be repealed in its entirety, 20% say most of the law should repealed but the bathroom provision should remain in place, 19% say other changes are needed and the smallest group, 18%, say the law should be left in place “as is.”

HB2 may be also taking a toll on incumbent Republican Governor Pat McCrory, who signed HB2 into law 3 weeks ago, and who now finds himself trailing Democratic challenger Roy Cooper, the state’s attorney general, 43% to 47% among likely 11/08/16 voters. McCrory has a Minus 4 Net Job Approval Rating today: 43% of voters approve of the job he is doing as Governor, 47% disapprove. Cooper has a Plus 28 Net Job Approval Rating today: 53% of voters approve of the job Cooper is doing as Attorney General, 25% disapprove. Compared to a 03/08/16 SurveyUSA WRAL-TV poll, McCrory’s job approval is largely unchanged, but Cooper has gone from Plus 18 five weeks ago to Plus 28 today.

McCrory carries white voters in an election today, 04/12/16. Cooper’s lead comes from African American voters, who back him 8:1. Cooper leads by 10 points in greater Raleigh and by 11 points in greater Greensboro. The contest is effectively even in greater Charlotte and in Southern and Coastal NC. Support for HB2 is highly correlated with the vote for Governor. Of those who approve of HB2, 74% vote for McCrory. Of those who disapprove of HB2, 69% vote for Cooper.

About this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of North Carolina adults 04/08/16 through 04/11/16. Of the adults, 779 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 701 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for Governor. During the course of the field period for this survey, the singer Bruce Springsteen announced that he was canceling a 04/10/16 concert in NC because of HB2. Approximately 1/3 of interviews were completed before this announcement, 2/3 after. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. 86% of North Carolinians say they know someone who is gay or lesbian. 25% say they know someone who is transgender. 8% of adult survey respondents indicate they are gay, lesbian, bisexual or transgender. 20% of likely gubernatorial voters are black in today’s results. If African Americans comprise more than 20% of the electorate on 11/08/16, the Democrat Cooper will outperform these numbers. If blacks comprise less than 20% of the electorate, the contest will be closer than it is shown herein.

NC Conflicted Over Bathroom Brouhaha: By 2:1, Voters Worry Tar Heel State Will Lose Business And Be Respected Less, But By 5:4, Voters Want State Ordinance to Stay in Effect; GOP Gov McCrory Helped As Much As He’s Hurt By Spotlight

SurveyUSA Operations - 52 days ago

The emotional and spiritual tug-of-war in North Carolina over just how to treat fairly those who are transgender is on full display in this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Time Warner Cable News North Carolina. Voters by 5:4 say the new state law that requires individuals to use the public restroom of their birth gender as opposed to their chosen gender is a good idea. But by 2:1, voters say the state will be harmed because of it.

Let’s take it a step at a time:

51% of North Carolinians think the new state law, which overwrites the Charlotte Bathroom Ordinance, is a good idea. 40% say the new state law is a bad idea. Republicans, conservatives, evangelicals, pro-life voters and regular church goers are more likely to like the new state law. Democrats, liberals, pro-choice voters and those who almost never attend religious services are more likely to think the state law is a bad idea. Voters in all 4 regions of the state support the state law — especially so in greater Greensboro.

40% say that transgender individuals should be able to choose which public bathroom to use (the exact same number as who oppose the new state law); 51% say transgender individuals should not be able to choose which public restroom to use (the exact same number as who support the new law).

Republican Governor Pat McCrory, who is running for re-election in 2016 and who signed the state ordinance into law, has a Minus 2 Net Job Approval. 44% of voters approve of the job that McCrory is doing, 46% disapprove. 35% say that McCrory’s handling of the bathroom law makes them have a more positive view of the Governor, 39% say McCrory’s handling of the bathroom law makes them have a more negative view of the Governor. 24% say McCrory’s handling of the issue makes no difference. 33% say they are now more likely to vote to re-elect McCrory as Governor; 35% say they are less likely to vote to re-elect McCrory as Governor; 26% say the bathroom will not influence how they vote in the 11/08/16 general election. Should, hypothetically, McCrory lose his re-election battle by 1 percentage point or less, analysts can point to this very small negative bathroom backlash as a possible reason why. Should McCrory win, or should McCrory lose by more than 1 percentage point, the bathroom law will likely not be the only reason why.

21% say the new state law will make it easier for North Carolina businesses to attract talent, keep customers and win contracts, but twice as many, 45%, say the new state law will have a negative effect on NC businesses.

23% say North Carolina’s overall image will be helped by the new state law, but twice as many, 46%, say the state’s overall image will be harmed by the new state law. The concern is shared by both men and women, voters in every age group, by whites and minorities, by rich and poor, and in every region of the state.

About: 600 state of North Carolina adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 04/01/16 through 04/03/16. Of the adults, 540 were registered to vote and were asked the questions included in this survey. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (70% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (30% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.


In CA, 47% of Registered Voters and 15% of Likely GOP Primary Voters Have ‘Extremely Negative’ View of Trump; Still He Leads Cruz Narrowly; Clinton Atop Sanders in Democrat Primary; Harris & Sanchez Likely To Advance for Boxer’s Seat; CA’s Vital 55 Electoral Votes Stay Blue in 2016

SurveyUSA Operations - 52 days ago

Extremely unscripted Donald Trump is viewed extremely unfavorably by half of California’s registered voters and by 15% of Republicans most likely to vote in the state’s 06/07/16 GOP Primary, according to research just completed by SurveyUSA for television stations KABC in Los Angeles, KPIX in San Francisco, KGTV in San Diego, and KFSN in Fresno. 71% of CA women and 75% of CA Latinos view Trump negatively today. But even with this anchor tied to his foot, Trump at this hour continues to lead Ted Cruz, though narrowly, among likely Republican primary voters.

Today, it’s Trump 40%, Cruz 32%, John Kasich 17%. Trump still leads among women, though his comments about women, and his staff’s treatment of women, were in the news during the field period for this survey. Among moderates, Kasich and Trump run effectively even in the GOP Primary, 35% for Trump to 34% for Kasich, with Cruz at 10%. Among those who say they are “somewhat conservative,” Cruz leads Trump 44% to 38%. But among those who are “very conservative,” Trump leads Cruz 45% to 38%. Among primary voters with an “extremely positive” view of Trump, Trump defeats Cruz 8:1. Among those who are “neutral” on Trump, Cruz leads Trump 4:3. And among those who have an “extremely negative” view of Trump, Cruz defeats Trump 10:1. The contest is fluid; much could change between now and 06/07/16. To win all 172 of California’s delegates to the Republican National Convention, Trump, Cruz, or Kasich would need to carry every one of CA’s 53 Congressional Districts.

In the Democratic presidential primary today, it’s Hillary Clinton 53%, Bernie Sanders 39%. Clinton wins the white vote by 6 points, 48% to 42%, and wins the African American vote 3:1. Sanders edges Clinton among single Democratic primary voters; Clinton leads decisively among married voters.

In the open, non-partisan, “Top 2″ primary for United States Senator, to fill the seat that will become open when Democrat Barbara Boxer retires at year-end, Democrat Kamala Harris, the Attorney General of the State of California, and Democrat Loretta Sanchez, a Congresswoman from California’s 46th Congressional District, top 3 other challengers and are likely to advance to the 11/08/16 general election. Republican Phil Wyman and Republican Tom Del Beccaro today tie for 3rd place at 8%, and Republican Duf Sundheim trails at 5%. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they “always” vote in “every” California primary, and who therefore are the most reliable voters, Harris leads Sanchez today by 11 points, 30% to 19%. A smaller turnout might increase the size of Harris’ primary margin and a larger turnout might narrow the gap between the Top 2 primary finishers, but in any turnout scenario, at this hour, 2 Democrats advance to the general, and Boxer’s seat stays Blue.

In hypothetical November head-to-head presidential match-ups today:

Hillary Clinton defeats Donald Trump by 34 points, 60% to 26%.
Hillary Clinton defeats Ted Cruz by 25 points, 57% to 32%.
Hillary Clinton defeats John Kasich 23 points, 56% to 33%.

Bernie Sanders defeats Donald Trump by 39 points, 63% to 24%.
Bernie Sanders defeats Ted Cruz by 35 points, 61% to 26%.
Bernie Sanders defeats John Kasich by 29 points, 57% to 28%.

Registered voters from all parties were asked, regardless for whom they may vote, which candidate for President would they want sitting in the Oval Office if there were a major terrorist attack on the United States today: 37% say Clinton, 21% say Sanders, 15% say Trump, 9% say Cruz, 5% say Kasich.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 state of California adults 03/30/16 through 04/03/16. Of the adults, 1,991 were registered to vote in the state of California. Of the CA registered voters, 356 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 Republican Presidential primary, 767 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 Democratic Presidential primary, 1,269 were determined to be likely to vote in the 06/07/16 open, non-partisan U.S. Senate primary, and 1,507 were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (58% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (42% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Barack Obama carried CA by 24 points in 2008 and by 23 points in 2012.

In City of Portland, Oregon: Ted Wheeler Is Overwhelming Favorite to Win Mayoral Primary; But Will He Avoid an 11/08/16 Runoff?

SurveyUSA Operations - 55 days ago

4 weeks till voting begins in the open contest for Mayor of Portland, Oregon State Treasurer Ted Wheeler is an overwhelming favorite to win the city’s 05/17/16 mail-in non-partisan primary, according to newly completed SurveyUSA research conducted exclusively for KATU-TV. But there is drama as to whether Wheeler will get more than 50% of the votes cast, which is what he would need to avoid a runoff election with the 2nd-place finisher. Incumbent Charlie Hales is not seeking re-election.

Here are the 15 candidates for Portland Mayor, in order of finish (this is not the order the names were read to respondents):

Ted Wheeler = 38%.
Jules Bailey = 8%.
David Ackerman = 4%
Patty Burkett = 4%.
Bruce Broussard = 3%.
Deborah Harris = 2%
Sean Davis = 2%.
Sarah Iannarone = 2%.
Lew Humble = 2%.
Eric Alexander Calhoun = 1%.
Bim Ditson = 1%.
David Schor = 1%.
Steven J Entwisle Sr = 0%
Trevor Manning = 0%.
Jessie Sponberg = 0%.
Undecided = 31%.

Wheeler dominates among Republicans, Democrats and Independents, among conservatives, moderates and liberals, among men and women. Wheeler runs away with the contest among city of Portland Hillary Clinton supporters, Bernie Sanders supporters, Donald Trump supporters, Ted Cruz supporters and John Kasich supporters. Wheeler leads overwhelmingly among voters who say the most important issue in the campaign is affordable housing, among those who say the most important issue is homelessness, among those who say the most important issue is taxes, and among those who say the most important issue is traffic.

If Wheeler receives more than 50% of the vote in the Primary, he wins. Even with 14 other candidates on the ballot, this is possible given that 31% of the likely voters interviewed by SurveyUSA are undecided at this hour. If undecided voters break proportionately across all candidates, Wheeler will approach the cutoff. If undecided voters break for other candidates and not for Wheeler, he will fall short. The fierce battle in Portland will be for 2nd place, in the event of a runoff.

Also on the primary ballot is Measure #26-173, the Temporary Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax for Street Repair, which would create a 4-year 10-cent a gallon fuel tax. At this hour, voters are divided: approximately 1/3 support the measure, 1/3 oppose the measure and 1/3 are not sure how they will vote on the measure. Support is strongest among the youngest voters and among the most liberal voters. Opposition to ballot measures typically increases as Election Day approaches (having nothing to do with Oregon, the city of Portland or with this specific measure). Every vote will be needed for Measure #26-173 to pass.

About SurveyUSA interviewed 700 city of Portland adults 03/28/16 through 04/01/16. Of the adults 630 were registered to vote. Of the registered, SurveyUSA identified 576 who were likely to vote in the Mayoral primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other electronic device.

In Michigan, Kasich Runs Strongest of 3 GOP Finalists, But Sanders Beats All Comers; Baselines Established for Possible Ryan or Romney Entries

SurveyUSA Operations - 62 days ago

In hypothetical head-to-head matchups in a general election held “today,” Republican John Kasich runs the strongest of any of the 3 remaining GOP candidates against Democrat Hillary Clinton, but Bernie Sanders outperforms Hillary Clinton and defeats all comers, according to SurveyUSA’s latest polling. Possible monkey-wrench candidates Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney are also paired.

Michigan has potentially great significance in 2016 given bluster from Donald Trump that he will flip the state’s 16 electoral college votes from Blue to Red. In 2008, Barack Obama carried Michigan by 16 points over John McCain. In 2012, Obama carried Michigan by 9 points over Mitt Romney, whose family has deep Michigan ties. Michigan last voted for a Republican for President in 1988, when George H.W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis by 8 points.

Here is how the 2016 contest in Michigan looks at this hour, 230 days until votes are counted:

Hillary Clinton defeats Donald Trump today by 11 points, 49% to 38%. Trump is the weakest of the Republican candidates.
Hillary Clinton defeats Ted Cruz today by 10 points, 49% to 39%.
John Kasich defeats Hillary Clinton today by 5 points, 46% to 41%. Kasich is the strongest of the Republican candidates at this hour.

Bernie Sanders defeats Donald Trump today by 19 points, 55% to 36%.
Bernie Sanders defeats Ted Cruz today by 21 points, 56% to 35%.
Bernie Sanders defeats John Kasich today by 5 points, 47% to 42%.

Though neither Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Paul Ryan nor 2012 Republican Party nominee Mitt Romney have asked to be the 2016 Republican nominee, speculation about an unforeseen outcome at the Republican National Convention keeps both names in circulation. Today, in Michigan, SurveyUSA finds:

Hillary Clinton defeats Paul Ryan today by 10 points, 48%to 38%.
Hillary Clinton defeats Mitt Romney today by 13 points, 48%to 35%. 75% of Romney 2012 voters stick with Mitt in 2016; 10% defect to Clinton; 15% are undecided.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 904 likely voters statewide 03/23/16 and 03/24/16. Research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (63% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (37% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Like other polls which have shown similar results, these research findings may be unbearable for Kasich and Sanders supporters. Both Kasich and Sanders face a relentless drumbeat of criticism for staying in the race, and not dropping out.

1 Week To NC Republican Presidential Primary, Before Results from Michigan are Known, Trump Atop Cruz; Ross Atop Rey in Democratic Senate Primary; Burr, McCrory, Cooper Positioned for Statewide Primary Wins

SurveyUSA Operations - 79 days ago

Ted Cruz may be closing in on Donald Trump in North Carolina, in the Republican primary for President of the United States, according to the latest poll commissioned by WRAL-TV in Raleigh. During the first half of interviewing for this survey, before the results of the 03/05/16 Kansas, Maine, Kentucky, and Louisiana Republican contests were known, Cruz polled at 23%. After news of Cruz’s strong Saturday showing had been digested, Cruz polled at 33%. During the same period, Trump’s support softened ever-so-slightly, from 42% to 39%. Rubio’s support declined from 16% to 11% and John Kasich’s support crept 3 points higher.

When data from all 4 days of interviewing is integrated, the results at this hour are:

Trump 41%, Cruz 27%, Marco Rubio 14%, and John Kasich 11%. 

Trump led Cruz by 19 points during the first 2 days of interviewing. Trump led Cruz by 6 points during the last 2 days of interviewing.

Results of next week’s North Carolina presidential voting may be influenced by today’s 03/08/16 Michigan and Mississippi primaries. Should Trump perform worse than expected in Michigan, that may cast doubt on his inevitability. Should Rubio perform worse than expected in Michigan, that may increase the calls for him to exit the race. Should Cruz surprise in Michigan, that may make him an acceptable Trump alternative to some Republican primary voters who have not yet returned a ballot in the Tarheel State.

At this hour, among voters who say they are a member of the Tea Party, Cruz edges Trump, 42% to 40%. Among NC evangelicals, which should be Cruz’s strong suit, Trump prevails 42% to 31%. Among “very conservative” Republican primary voters, Trump and Cruz are bunched, 39% to 37%. Among “moderates,” Rubio moves into 2nd place behind Trump, Kasich moves into 3rd place, and Cruz falls to 4th. Trump leads in all 4 regions of the state. Cruz runs 2nd in all 4 regions of the state. Trump leads Cruz by 19 points among those with a high school education. Trump leads Cruz by 23 points among primary voters earning less than $40,000 a year. The contest is closer among college educated voters, where Cruz draws to within 5 points of Trump.

Trump leads by 7 among pro-life primary voters and leads by 32 points among pro-choice primary voters. Trump leads by 24 points among those who almost never attend church. Trump leads by just 5 points among those who attend church regularly.

In a Democratic Primary for President today, Hillary Clinton defeats Bernie Sanders 57% to 34%. Sanders’ support is young; he leads Clinton nearly 2:1 among those 18 to 34. But among seniors, Clinton buries Sanders by nearly 4:1. Clinton leads by 8 points among white Democrats, and leads by 54 points among black Democrats. Momentum is with Clinton. During the first half of the field period, Clinton led Sanders by 12. During the 2nd half of the field period, Clinton led Sanders by 46 points. About 1/6th of the interviews for this survey were completed after the 03/06/16 CNN Democratic Presidential Debate in Flint MI.

In a Republican primary today for US Senator from North Carolina, incumbent Richard Burr defeats Greg Brannon 3:1. Burr polls above 40% in every region of the state. 27% of likely Republican primary voters say they are undecided, even though voting is well underway.

In a Democratic primary today for US Senator, Deborah Ross leads her nearest challenger, Chris Rey, by 25 points. 44% of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided in this contest, so any outcome is conceivably possible. Among those Democrats who have decided, Ross leads materially among both whites and blacks. Ross’s support is strongest in greater Raleigh, weakest in Southern and Coastal Carolina. Rey challenges Ross among primary voters with a high school education, but Ross distances herself, with a 5:1 advantage, among college educated primary voters.

In a Republican primary for NC Governor today, incumbent Pat McCrory sails to an easy win. In a Democratic primary for Governor, Roy Cooper is well positioned to defeat Ken Spaulding, though 30% of likely Democratic primary voters say they are undecided in the contest.

“For” leads “Against” on the Connect NC bond referendum on the primary election ballot. 45% of voters today support the measure, 18% oppose, 36% are not certain how they will vote on Connect NC.

Job approvals:

Barack Obama, Minus 10 …… 43% of NC registered voters approve of the job Obama is doing as President, 53% disapprove.
Pat McCrory, Minus 6 …… 40% of NC registered voters approve of the job McCrory is doing as Governor, 46% disapprove.
Richard Burr, Minus 9 …… 34% of registered voters approve of the job Burr is doing as U.S. Senator, 43% disapprove.
Roy Cooper, Plus 18 …… 46% of registered voters approve of the job Cooper is doing as NC Attorney General, 28% disapprove.
NC State Legislature, Minus 25 …… 28% of registered voters approve of the job the legislature is doing, 53% disapprove.
US Congress, Minus 65 …… 12% of registered voters approve of the job the U.S. Congress is doing, 77% disapprove.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,000 North Carolina adults 03/04/16 through 03/07/16. Of the adults, 1,800 were registered to vote. Of those registered to vote, SurveyUSA identified 1,555 as likely to vote in the 03/15/16 primary election, with 688 likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Republican primary, and 687 likely to vote in the 03/15/16 Democratic primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (70% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Random-digit-dial sample provided by SSI. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (30% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. All interviews for this survey were completed after the 03/03/16 Fox News “small hands” debate in Detroit.

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