In Minnesota, Clinton 7 Atop Trump on Eve Of 1st Presidential Debate:

SurveyUSA Operations - 3 days ago

Minnesota’s 10 Electoral Votes at this hour appear likely to remain blue, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities.

When likely voters are presented with 4 candidates for President, including Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, both of whom are on the ballot in 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton tops Republican Donald Trump, 46% to 39%, with Johnson at 6% and Stein at 2%. When the same likely voters are asked how they would vote if the only choice were between Clinton and Trump, Clinton’s margin shrinks ever-so-slightly from 7 points to 6 points, 49% to 43%.

Trump leads 11:1 among Strong Republicans, but Clinton leads 24:1 among Strong Democrats. That difference, on the extreme ends of the political spectrum, lays the groundwork for Clinton to carry the state. Among very conservative voters, 15% defect to Clinton, triple the number of very liberal voters who defect to Trump. Trump leads among evangelicals 2:1, leads among rural men by 2:1, leads among high school educated men by 5:2, leads in military households by 5:3, leads in Western MN by 3:2 and leads in Northeastern MN 5:4. Clinton leads by 18 points among those with a 4-year college degree, leads by 16 points among seniors, leads by 15 points among women, leads by 15 points in the greater Twin Cities and by 11 points in Southern MN. Trump battles Clinton to a draw among middle-income voters, but Clinton leads by 12 points among the least affluent voters and by 9 points among the most affluent voters.

Trump leads among voters focused on immigration, terrorism and national security. Clinton leads among voters focused on the economy, the environment and education. Trump leads by 20 points among independent men. Clinton leads by 10 points among independent women. In rural Minnesota, Trump leads 2:1 among men, runs even with Clinton among women. In suburban Minnesota, Trump leads by 4 among men, Clinton leads by 13 among women.

52% of those voting for Clinton say they cast their ballot enthusiastically, compared with 54% of Trump voters. 45% of Clinton voters say they cast their vote “with reservations,” compared to 44% of Trump voters. 58% of Clinton voters are voting “for” Clinton, compared to 39% who are voting “against Trump.” 52% of Trump voters are voting “for Trump,” compared to 46% who are voting “against Clinton.”

Filtering and Context: 

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Minnesota adults 09/16/16 through 09/20/16. Of the adults, 743 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 625 were determined by SurveyUSA to return a ballot on or before the 11/08/16 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (65% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (35% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. 6% of registered voters tell SurveyUSA that they almost always vote in a Presidential election but will not this year, because they do not like the candidates on the ballot. 2% of registered voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in a Presidential election but will this year because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates. Minnesota last voted for a Republican for President in 1972, when Richard Nixon carried 49 states. In 2012, Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 8 points. In 2008, Obama defeated John McCain by 10 points. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry defeated George W. Bush by 3 points in Bush’s attempt for a 2nd term. In 2000, Democrat Al Gore defeated Bush by 2 points in Bush’s bid for a 1st term.

Do-Si-Do in Fresno: Brand and Perea Still Tied, Though Now The Conservative Is Ahead By a Point

SurveyUSA Operations - 4 days ago

In an election for Mayor of Fresno today, Lee Brand and Henry R. Perea remain tied in a jump-ball election for the city’s open seat, according to the latest ABC30 News Poll. Today, Brand leads by a nominal 1 point, 45% to 44%. 5 weeks ago, in an identical SurveyUSA poll, also conducted for KFSN-TV, Perea led Brand by a nominal 2 points. Both results are within the pre-election poll’s theoretical margin of sampling error. The 3-point swing from August to September in favor of Brand could be just statistical noise.

That said, there are troubling signs for Perea: In mid-August, Perea led by 49 points among the city’s Latino voters. Today he leads by 30. Brand’s support among Latinos is up from 20% then to 30% now. Among white voters, the contest is unchanged: Brand led by 20 points in August and leads by 20 points today.

Among seniors, who are the most reliable voters, Brand had led by 4 points, now leads by 11. Among voters age 18 to 34, who are the least reliable voters, Perea had led by 14 points, now leads by 21 points. The younger the 11/08/16 electorate, the better Perea will do.

Brand’s support is conservative and affluent. Perea is backed by liberals, moderates, voters with a high-school education and lower-income voters.

5 weeks ago, Brand and Perea were tied among voters who said that crime was the most important issue facing the new Mayor. Today, Brand leads by 8 in that cohort. Conversely, among voters who say that economic development is the most important city issue, Brand had led by 6 points, but now trails Perea by 18.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the city of Fresno 09/19/16 through 09/21/16. Of the adults, 720 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 549 likely to vote in a contest “today.” This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Sitting Fresno mayor Ashley Swearengin is term limited. Swearengin won election in 2008 by defeating Henry R. Perea’s son, Henry T. Perea.

Could 2016 Be 1st Time That Maine Electoral Votes Split? Trump Up By 10 Points in 2nd Congressional District; Clinton Up By 18 in 1st District; 54% Give Republican Governor LePage Vote of ‘No Confidence’; GOP Incumbent Poliquin Has Slight Edge in Re-Match with Democrat Cain

SurveyUSA Operations - 14 days ago

For the first time in Maine’s history, the state’s electoral votes may not all go to one candidate, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by Colby College of Waterville, Maine, and the Boston Globe newspaper.

In what should be a solid-blue state, Democrat Hillary Clinton today barely edges Republican Donald Trump 42% to 39%, eight weeks till votes are counted. Should Clinton carry the state on Election Day, she would pick up at least 3 of the state’s 4 electoral votes. But Maine does not allocate its electoral votes “winner take all.” Maine awards two votes to the statewide winner, and one additional vote to the winner of each of the state’s two U.S. Congressional Districts. Today, Trump leads Clinton by 10 points in C.D. #2. This single electoral vote is inconsequential in a landslide, but in a close race, and depending on how the chips fall in other states, Northern Maine’s half-a-million residents could be kingmakers.

30 days until early-voting begins:

Clinton, who leads by 3, is running 12 points weaker than Barack Obama did in 2012, when he carried Maine by 15 points. Not since 2000, when Democrat Al Gore carried Maine by 5 percentage points, has the state been this closely contested. A 38-point Gender Gap carves up the state. Trump carries Maine men by 17 points. Clinton carries Maine women by 21 points. Trump holds 86% of the Republican base, surrendering 8% to Libertarian Gary Johnson, who polls at 9% overall, but who draws 4 times as many Republican votes as he does Democrat. Clinton holds 88% of the Democratic base, surrendering 5% to Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Independent voters split, 34% Clinton, 34% Trump, 14% Johnson, 9% Stein. (Independent candidate Evan McMullin is not on the ballot in Maine.)

In the 1st Congressional District, which includes greater Portland, along the coast to Camden and up though Augusta and Waterville, Clinton leads Trump by 18 points, 49% to 31%. Regardless of whether Clinton carries the state, she is almost certain to carry this Congressional District, ensuring her of 1 electoral vote. In the 2nd Congressional District, which includes Lewiston and Auburn, Bangor, northern and rural parts of the state and Downeast, Trump leads Clinton by 10 points, 47% to 37%. Those who envision a possible 269-to-269 electoral-vote tie as one 2016 outcome, see Maine’s 2nd District as critical for Trump. Since 1972, when Maine first set up its current allocation system, the state’s 4 electoral votes have always gone to 1 candidate. If CD #2 goes one way and the rest of the state goes another, it will be the first time in history.

Of Trump supporters, 63% say they are voting “for” Trump; 37% say they are voting “against” Clinton. Of Clinton supporters, 64% say they are voting “for” Clinton; 35% say they are voting “against” Trump. 73% of Trump voters cast their vote enthusiastically, compared to 26% who vote for Trump with reservations. 65% of Clinton voters cast their vote enthusiastically, compared to 34% who vote for Clinton with reservations.

Trump leads among voters under age 50. Clinton leads among voters age 50+. Trump leads by 16 points among voters with a high-school education. Clinton leads by 22 points among voters with a 4-year college degree. Clinton leads among the most affluent and least affluent voters. Trump leads among middle-income voters.

In Maine’s 1st Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Chellie Pingree is poised for easy re-election to her 5th term, today 20 points atop Republican challenger Mark Holbrook. In Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin, first elected in 2014 when the seat was open, seeks his 2nd term. Today, Poliquin leads Democratic challenger Emily Cain 50% to 45% in a 2014 re-match, when Poliquin defeated Cain 47% to 42%. (Independent Blaine Richardson received 11% of the 2014 vote; there is no independent on the 2016 Congressional ballot.)

54% of Mainers statewide, including 90% of Democrats, 63% of women, 62% of college-educated voters and 56% of Independents, today say they have no confidence in Republican Governor Paul LePage’s ability to govern. 40% of Mainers, including 85% of Republicans, say they have confidence in LePage. Of those with no confidence in LePage, 72% vote for Clinton. Of those with confidence in LePage, 81% vote for Trump. LePage is viewed extremely unfavorably by 48% of voters, compared to just 18% who view him extremely favorably. 64% of Mainers say the level of civility in Maine politics has gotten worse since LePage took office in 2010, 4 times as many as say that civility under LePage has gotten better. When voters are asked about a hypothetical 2018 match-up for United States Senator between Independent incumbent Angus King and LePage, King wipes the floor with LePage, 59% to 37%.

Context and Methodology: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 adults from the state of Maine 09/04/16 through 09/10/16. Of the adults 903 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 779 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the 11/08/16 general election. Of the likely voters, 382 were from the 1st Congressional District (with a theoretical margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points in either direction), 397 were from the 2nd Congressional District (with a theoretical margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.0 percentage points in either direction). This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. The last time a Republican carried Maine was in 1988, when George H.W. Bush of Kennebunkport defeated Democrat Michael Dukakis by 12 points. In 1992, Bill Clinton carried the state by 8 points over Independent Ross Perot, with Bush finishing 3rd. In 1996, Clinton carried the state by 21 points over Republican Bob Dole. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry carried the state by 9 points over George W. Bush. In 2008, Obama carried the state by 17 points. During the field period for this survey, Libertarian Johnson asked, “What is Aleppo?” during a TV interview. It is unclear whether Johnson’s support will diminish or be unaffected by this perceived gaffe, and how that might impact Trump’s support. Most of the interviews for this survey were completed before Clinton called some Trump supporters a “basket of deplorables.” All of the interviews for this survey were completed before Clinton experienced a medical episode during a 09/11 memorial service in New York City. Nebraska is the only other state that allocates electoral votes by Congressional District.

8 Weeks Till Votes Are Counted, Trump Now Well Positioned to Carry Kansas; GOP Incumbent Moran Sailing to 2nd Term in U.S. Senate

SurveyUSA Operations - 15 days ago

A month ago, SurveyUSA polling for KSN News found Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton in Kansas, but 60% of those supporting Trump said they were voting “against Clinton,” compared to just 39% who were voting “for Trump.” Today, the tide has turned, new KSN polling shows. Trump now leads Clinton in Kansas by 12 points, 48% to 36%, up from a 5-point lead a month ago, and 57% today who support Trump are voting “for” him, compared to now 38% of Trump backers who are “against” Clinton — a complete transformation.

A month ago, 50% of Trump voters backed him enthusiastically, now 55%, an increase of 5 points.
A month ago, 46% of Trump voters supported him with reservations, now 43%, a drop of 3 points.

The news for Clinton is bad:

A month ago, 66% of Clinton backers were “for” her, compared to 55% today, a drop of 11 points.
A month ago, 31% of Clinton backers were “against” Trump, now 43%, an increase of 12 points.
A month ago, 63% of Clinton backers were enthusiastic, today 51%, a drop of 12 points.
A month ago, 35% of Clinton backers supported her with reservations, today 46%, an increase of 11 points.
A month ago, 44% of all voters viewed Clinton “extremely unfavorably,” today 49%, an increase of 5 points.

Trump leads by 23 points in rural Kansas and by 7 points in suburban Kansas. Trump leads by 21 points in the Greater Wichita area, which includes Sedgwick and 63 surrounding counties. Trump and Clinton run even in Greater Topeka, which includes Shawnee and 30 surrounding counties. Trump leads by 7 points among suburban men and by 6 points among suburban women. There is no Gender Gap in Kansas.

Clinton leads by 23 points among Independent men and by 9 points among Independent women. Voters focused on immigration and terrorism vote overwhelmingly for Trump. Voters focused on education vote overwhelmingly for Clinton. Voters focused on the economy split. Trump leads by 23 points in military households.

In the election for United States Senator from Kansas, incumbent Republican Jerry Moran is well positioned at this hour for a second term, 16 points ahead of Democratic challenger Patrick Wiesner, 50% to 34%. Compared to a SurveyUSA KSN News poll a month ago, Moran is down 2 points, Wiesner is up 2 points. Libertarian Robert Garrard is flat, 6% a month ago, 6% today.

Statewide Favorability Ratings: 

Democratic President Barack Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 20% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 40%.
Republican Governor Sam Brownback is viewed extremely favorably by 4% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 49%.
Republican Senator Pat Roberts is viewed extremely favorably by 8% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 19%.
Moran is viewed extremely favorably by 13% of KS voters, extremely unfavorably by 12%.

Context and Methodology: 

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Kansas adults 09/06/16 through 09/11/16. Of the adults, 703 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 595 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. 4% of voters interviewed for this survey said they almost always vote in Presidential elections, but would not vote in 2016 because they did not like any of the candidates on the ballot. An offsetting 5% of voters said they almost never vote in Presidential elections but would vote in 2016 because they were drawn to one of this year’s candidates.

84% of the interviews for this survey were completed before Clinton buckled at Ground Zero the morning of 09/11/16 and doctors offered pneumonia as an explanation. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (57% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (43% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the screen of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Kansas has 6 electoral votes in 2016. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried the state by 22 points as Obama won a 2nd term. In 2008, John McCain carried the state by 15 points as Obama won his 1st term. In 2004, George W Bush carried KS by 25 points over John Kerry on Bush’s way to a 2nd term. In 2000, Bush carried KS by 21 points. Early voting begins in 5 weeks, on 10/19/16.

In California, Immediately Prior to Pneumonia Reveal, Clinton Far Ahead of Trump; Harris Atop Sanchez in Fight for Boxer’s Open Senate Seat; Death Penalty Likely to Survive, But Ballot Measures on Recreational Marijuana, Background Checks & New Cigarette Tax Ahead At This Hour

SurveyUSA Operations - 16 days ago

8 weeks till votes are counted in California, in interviews conducted in the days immediately prior to Hillary Clinton’s collapse on 09/11/16 in New York City, Clinton is in front of Donald Trump by margins comparable to Barack Obama’s defeat of Mitt Romney and John McCain, according to a SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno.

Clinton leads Trump by 25 points in California today, 57% to 32%, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 3% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 1%. These numbers are likely to change, of course, after news of Clinton’s illness is digested by voters. Obama carried California by 23 points in 2012 and by 24 points in 2008. Clinton today leads by 30 points among all women, leads by 28 points among suburban moms, and leads by 52 points among single moms. She leads by 18 points among white voters, by 24 points among Asian American voters, by 31 points among Latino voters, and by 58 points among African American voters.

Clinton leads by 38 points among 1st-generation Californians (those whose parents were born in another country). She leads by 30 points among 2nd-generation Californians (those with 1 or more grandparents born in another land). Clinton holds 90% of the Democratic base, compared to 80% of Republican who stand with Trump. Independents break for Clinton by 17 points. Moderates break for Clinton by 39 points.

Trump leads Clinton by 4 points among gun owners. Trump closes to within 17 points of Clinton among voters who grew up in a household where one parent hit the other. Clinton leads by 28 points among voters who did not witness domestic violence between their parents growing up. Trump runs 12 points stronger among motorcycle owners than he does among voters who do not ride a bike. Clinton leads by 52 points among vegetarians. The candidates run even in the Inland Empire, but Clinton leads by more than 2:1 in Greater Los Angeles and by more than 3:1 in the Bay Area. Catholics are ever-so-slightly more likely to back Clinton than Trump. Union households vote the same as non-union households. Trump ties Clinton in evangelical homes; Clinton leads by 38 points in non-evangelical homes.

In the election for United States Senator from CA, to replace retiring Democrat Barbara Boxer, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Democrat Loretta Sanchez, 44% to 27%, but, 4 weeks till early voting begins, almost a third of likely voters remain undecided in the contest. Harris leads overwhelmingly among Asian Americans and African Americans, and leads comfortably among whites. Latinos split. Sanchez narrowly leads among voters who have lived in California less than 10 years. Harris leads among those who have lived in California 10+ years. Harris leads among men and women, rich and poor, educated and uneducated. Harris leads in urban areas, suburban areas and rural areas and in all 4 named regions of the state. Those who voted for Boxer in 2010 back Harris in 2016 by 40 points. Those who voted for Carly Fiorina in 2010 narrowly favor Sanchez in 2016.

Ballot Measures:

Proposition 56, which would increase the tax on cigarettes to $2 per pack, is favored to pass by nearly 2:1.
Proposition 62, which would end the death penalty in CA and replace it with life in prison, trails by 16 points today and is headed for defeat.
Proposition 63, which outlaws large-capacity magazines and requires background checks before ammo can be purchased, leads by more than 2:1.
Proposition 64, which would legalize, regulate and tax recreational marijuana, is supported 52% to 40%. Caution advised.

Statewide Favorability Ratings:

President Obama is viewed extremely favorably by 36% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 24%.
Trump is viewed extremely favorably by 13% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 52%.
Clinton is viewed extremely favorably by 19% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 31%.
Governor Jerry Brown is viewed extremely favorably by 15% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 18%.
Dianne Feinstein is viewed extremely favorably by 14% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 17%.
Boxer is viewed extremely favorably by 14% of CA voters, extremely unfavorably by 22%.

Context and Methodology:

SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of California adults 09/08/16 through 09/11/16. Of the adults, 782 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 678 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. Of registered voters, 4% tell SurveyUSA they almost always vote in a Presidential election but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates. An offsetting 6% of voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in Presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates. 87% of the interviews for this survey were completed before Clinton buckled at Ground Zero the morning of 09/11/16 and before doctors offered pneumonia as an explanation. The survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (53% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (47% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the screen of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Polling ballot measures and citizen initiatives is an inexact science. In general, having nothing to do with California specifically and having nothing to do with 2016 uniquely, opposition to a ballot measure increases as Election Day approaches. Rarely does support for a ballot measure increase over time. It is likely that opposition to Propositions 56, 62, 63 and 64 will increase once early voting begins in one month, on 10/10/16. This may alter the calculus on recreational marijuana Proposition 64, which today has the most fragile advantage of those measures tested.

Support For San Diego Measure C Increases; Support for Measure D Unchanged

SurveyUSA Operations - 30 days ago

10 weeks until votes are counted, city of San Diego Measure C, which would authorize the creation of a joint-use downtown stadium and convention center, has new support, on the heels of a report by the San Diego Chargers that the city could receive an additional $750 million in revenues if the measure passes, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KGTV-TV and the Union Tribune.

Today, support for Measure C is at 39%, Opposition is at 36%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago, support is up 9 points, opposition is down 4 points, a 13-point swing. Men had opposed the measure by 5 points, now support the measure by 17 points.

33% of likely November voters say Measure C will be a money maker. 33% say Measure C will be a money loser. 11% say Measure C will be a break-even proposition.

71% say that if the city’s hotel tax is raised to 16.5%, as called for by Measure C, it will deter visitors to the city — 33% calling it a major deterrent, 38% calling it a minor deterrent. 25% say the increase in hotel taxes will not make a difference in whether visitors choose to stay in San Diego hotels.

Support for Measure D is largely unchanged from 5 weeks ago. Then, the measure led by 3 points, today by 2 points.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 adults from the city of San Diego 08/24/16 through 08/26/16. Of the adults, 690 were registered vote. Of the registered voters, 678 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (61% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (39% of likely voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In City of Fresno, Perea and Brand in Tight Fight For Open Mayor’s Seat

SurveyUSA Operations - 44 days ago

3 months till votes are counted in the general election for Mayor of Fresno CA, Henry R. Perea and Lee Brand run effectively even, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KFSN-TV.

In an election “today,” it’s Perea 46%, Brand 44%, a nominal 2-point advantage for Perea that may or may not be statistically meaningful and which is within this survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Both candidates — the winners of a Top 2 primary in June — have clearly defined constituencies.

Perea is backed by the city’s Latinos, where he leads by 49 points. Brand is backed by the city’s whites, where he leads by 20 points. In this portrait of the Fresno electorate, Latinos are 30% of likely voters. If more than 30% of November voters are Latino, Perea will outperform these poll numbers. If fewer than 30% of November voters are Latino, Brand will outperform these poll numbers.

Brand leads by 7 points among men, Perea leads by 11 points among women, an 18-point Gender Gap. Perea’s support is younger. Brand’s support is older. The younger the electorate, the better Perea will do. The older the electorate, the better Brand will do.

Although the contest is officially non-partisan, Brand is backed by 73% of Republicans; Perea is backed by 79% of Democrats. Independents break for Brand by 16 points. Moderates break for Perea by 26 points.

Brand leads materially among the most affluent voters. Perea runs away with the least affluent voters. Middle-income voters split. Less-well educated voters prefer Perea. Better educated voters back Brand.

Among voters who say crime is the most important issue facing the city, the candidates split. Among voters who cite economic development, Brand leads narrowly. Among voters focused on homelessness, Perea leads decisively.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 860 adults from the city of Fresno 8/08/16 through 08/14/16. Of the adults, 736 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA identified 539 likely to vote in a contest “today.” This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (23% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Sitting Fresno mayor Ashley Swearengin is term limited. Swearengin won election in 2008 by defeating Henry R. Perea’s son, Henry T. Perea.

Clinton Halves Trump Lead in Kansas; GOP Incumbent Moran Positioned for Easy Re-Election to US Senate

SurveyUSA Operations - 50 days ago

In the Red State of Kansas, which Republican Mitt Romney carried by 22 points in 2012, Republican Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton by 5 points, 44% to 39%, in an election today, 08/08/16, three months to Election Day, according to this latest KSN News poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 8% today, with twice as much support from Republican voters as Democrats; 9% of Kansas’ most likely voters are today undecided.

Trump holds just 74% of the Republican base. Clinton holds 87% of the Democratic base. Among strong Republicans, Clinton gets 4% of the vote. Among strong Democrats, Trump gets zero percent of the vote. Among very conservative voters, Clinton siphons 11% of the vote. Among very liberal voters, Trump siphons 2% of the vote.

Just 39% of Trump supporters are voting “for” Trump. 60% of Trump supporters are voting “against” Clinton. In contrast, 66% of Clinton supporters are voting “for” Clinton. 31% of Clinton supporters are voting “against” Trump. 50% of Trump supporters say they vote for Trump “enthusiastically,” compared to 63% of Clinton voters who vote for her “enthusiastically.” 46% of Trump supporters vote for Trump “with reservations,” compared to 35% who vote for Clinton “with reservations.” Of those voting for the Libertarian Johnson, 35% are voting “for Johnson,” another 35% are voting “against Trump.”

Voters focused on the economy split, 42% for the businessman Trump, 41% for the politician Clinton. Voters focused on terrorism back Trump 2:1. Voters focused on education back Clinton 5:1. Voters focused on immigration back Trump by nearly 3:1. Trump leads among evangelicals by 33 points. Trump leads in military households by 24 points. Trump leads by 3:2 among the least educated voters and by 5:3 among the least affluent voters. Clinton leads by 10 points among the most affluent Kansans. Trump leads in Greater Wichita and Greater Topeka. Clinton leads in Greater Kansas City KS.

Trump leads by 14 points among men. Clinton leads by 4 points among women. An 18-point Gender Gap. The Gender Gap is not larger because, in a rural state such as Kansas, Trump carries rural women by 7 points. Trump carries suburban men by 12 points. Clinton carries suburban women by 6 points. Clinton carries independent women by 20 points. Trump carries independent men by 9 points.

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 4 weeks ago, immediately before both the Republican National Convention and the Democratic National Convention, Trump had led by 11 points in Kansas, now 5. Moran had led Wiesner by 19 points (in a hypothetical head-to-head conducted before the Kansas primary). Today, with Wiesner the confirmed Democratic nominee, Moran leads by 20 points. Then, 39% of Kansas voters had an extremely unfavorable opinion of Trump. Today, 41% have an extremely unfavorable opinion of Trump. Then, 50% had an extremely unfavorable opinion of Clinton. Today, 44% have an extremely unfavorable opinion of Clinton. Then, Moran had a Plus 19 Net Favorability Rating. Now, Moran has a Plus 25 Net Favorability Rating. Then, Republican Governor Sam Brownback had a Minus 50 Net Favorability Rating. Today, Brownback has a Minus 36 Net Favorability Rating. Then, US Senator Pat Roberts had a Minus 8 Net Favorability Rating. Today, Roberts has a Minus 2 Net Favorability Rating. Every Republican tested in Kansas has improved in the past 4 weeks except Trump. President Barack Obama was at Minus 5 four weeks ago. Today, Obama is at Minus 7.

About / Filtering / Context: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Kansas adults 08/03/16 through 08/07/16. Of the adults, 673 were registered to vote in the state of Kansas. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 566 were likely to vote in the 11/08/16 Presidential election and 541 were likely to vote in the contest for U.S. Senator. Of the registered voters, 4% tell SurveyUSA that they always vote in Presidential elections but will not vote in this year’s Presidential election, because they do not like any of the candidates. 5% tell SurveyUSA that they almost never vote in Presidential elections, but in 2016 they will go out of their way to vote because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (60% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (aka: the cell-phone respondents, 40% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Kansas has 6 electoral votes. In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney carried Kansas by 22 points. In 2008, Republican John McCain carried Kansas by 15 points. In 2004, Republican George W. Bush carried Kansas by 25 points. In 2000, Bush carried Kansas by 21 points.

Coming Out of RNC and DNC Conventions, Trump Leads Clinton in Georgia, Though Way Too Close For GOP’s Comfort; Incumbent Republican Isakson 9 Atop Challenger Barksdale; Democrats Unlikely to Pick Up This US Senate Seat in 2016

SurveyUSA Operations - 57 days ago

Donald Trump is expected to carry the Red State of Georgia, and 14 weeks till votes are counted, Trump leads — but not by as much as Republicans hope, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WXIA-TV, the Tegna station in Atlanta. Incumbent U.S. Senate Republican Johnny Isakson runs stronger than Trump at this hour.

In the fiercely fought contest for President, it’s Republican Trump 46%, Democrat Hillary Clinton 42%, Libertarian Gary Johnson 5%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 2%. Trump leads Clinton by more than 2:1 among whites and by almost 2:1 among seniors. Clinton leads by 66 points among African American voters, who, in today’s portrait of the GA electorate, comprise 29% of likely voters. If black turnout in November is higher than 29% in Georgia, Clinton will outperform these numbers. Trump leads by 9 points among men. Clinton leads by only 2 points among women (just an 11-point Gender Gap), the small size of the Gap largely driven by the fact that Clinton trails among rural women by 31 points.

Trump and Clinton tie 44% each in suburban Georgia: Trump leads by 12 points among suburban men; Clinton leads by 11 points among suburban women. Trump leads in military households by 16 points, in evangelical households by 27 points. Among Georgia Democrats, Trump gets 1% of the vote. Among Georgia Republicans, Clinton gets 6%. Moderates break for Clinton by 12 points. Independents break for Trump by 12 points.

Among Trump supporters, 60% say they are voting “for Trump,” 38% say they are voting “against Clinton.”
Among Trump supporters, 69% say they vote for Trump enthusiastically. 29% say they vote for Trump with reservations.
Among Trump supporters, 79% say race relations in the past 8 years have gotten worse; just 5% say relations have gotten better.

Among Clinton supporters, 68% say they are voting “for Clinton,” 26% say they are voting “against Trump.”
Among Clinton supporters, 69% say they vote for Clinton enthusiastically. 28% say they vote for Clinton with reservations.

Among Johnson supporters, 66% are voting “for Johnson,” 17% are voting “against Trump,” 17% are voting “against Clinton.”

Trump is viewed unfavorably by 52% of likely voters (40% “extremely unfavorable,” 12% unfavorable).
Trump is viewed favorably by 45% of likely voters (21% “extremely favorable,” 24% favorable).
Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 57% of likely voters (46% “extremely unfavorable,” 11% unfavorable).
Clinton is viewed favorably by 40% of likely voters (20% “extremely favorable,” 20% favorable).
By contrast, President Barack Obama is viewed unfavorably by 50% of likely voters (38% “extremely unfavorable,” 12% unfavorable).
Obama is viewed favorably by 48% (31% “extremely favorable,” 17% favorable).

Trump voters say undocumented immigrants should be deported by a 12:1 margin; Clinton voters say they should be allowed to stay by a 5:2 margin.
Voters who say the economy is the most important issue in 2016 back Clinton by 17 points. Voters who say terrorism is the most important issue in 2016 back Trump by 24 points.

4% of registered GA voters tell SurveyUSA that they “always” vote in Presidential elections, but are sitting out 2016 because they don’t like the candidates. Another 7% of Georgia registered voters tell SurveyUSA they rarely vote in Presidential elections, but will vote this year because they are especially attracted to one of the candidates. These “new” voters split; they do not disproportionately favor Trump.

In the election for United States Senator from Georgia, Incumbent Republican Isakson defeats Democratic challenger Jim Barksdale 48% to 39% today, with Libertarian Allen Buckley at 5% and 8% of likely voters undecided. Of Trump supporters, just 2% crossover in the Senate contest and vote Democratic. Of Clinton supporters, just 6% crossover in the Senate contest and vote Republican. Isakson leads 3:1 among whites, 3:1 among rural men, nearly 3:1 in Northwest GA and 5:3 in Southern and Coastal GA. Barksdale leads by 25 points among young voters, by 54 points among African American voters, and by 86% among Democrats (including, leading 96% to zero percent among “strong Democrats”). Independents break 5:3 for Isakson, moderates break for Isakson by 4 points. Barksdale leads by 9 points among lower-income voters, but Isakson leads by 6 points among middle-income voters and by 22 points among affluent voters. Barksdale leads by 26 points in Greater Atlanta, which includes Fulton and 3 surrounding counties. Barksdale carries suburban women by 7 points. Isakson carries suburban men by 23 points — a 30-point Gender Gap in the suburbs.

Respondent Filtering / Historical Context: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of GA adults 07/29/16 through 07/31/16. All interviews were conducted after the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention. Of the adults interviewed, 711 were registered to vote in Georgia. Of the registered voters, 628 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (65% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (35% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on the screen of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Georgia last voted for a Democrat for President in 1992, when Bill Clinton captured the state’s then 13 electoral votes by 1 percentage point over George H. W. Bush. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried Georgia by 8 points. In 2008, John McCain carried Georgia by 7 points. George W. Bush carried Georgia by 17 points in 2004 and by 12 points in 2000. The last time Georgia voted for a 3rd-party candidate was 1968, when George Wallace defeated Richard Nixon by 12 points and defeated Hubert Humphrey by 16 points.

In GOP Primary for MO Governor: 4 Republicans Clustered, Each With Path To Nomination; Tight Fight for Lt Gov and Attorney General; On the Democratic Side: Koster Certain To Be Democrats’ Choice for Governor; Carnahan Likely to be Lt Gov; Attorney General Is Toss Up

SurveyUSA Operations - 64 days ago

One week till votes are counted in the state of Missouri primary for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and state Attorney General, 3 of 6 high-profile contests are closely contested, with the winner too-close-to-call, according to a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by KSDK-TV, Newschannel 5 in St Louis.

In the 08/02/16 Republican Primary 

In the Gubernatorial Primary, Eric Greitens, John Brunner, Peter Kinder, and Catherine Hanaway are clustered at this hour, each with a chance to become the GOP nominee. Greitens, who nominally is in 1st place with 25% of the vote, gets 38% support among Republicans who say the economy is the most important issue in 2016. He runs strong in the Ozarks, strong among middle-aged voters, strong among those Republican primary voters who live in union households, and strong in rural MO. Brunner, at 21%, has a broad coalition, backed by 22% of strong Republicans, 21% of Republicans, 22% of Independents who lean Republican, and 26% of independents. Brunner leads in greater St Louis and ties Greitens among evangelical voters. But: his support is disproportionately young, which in a primary is a concern. Kinder, at 18%, ties Greitens for 1st place among seniors, does well among self-described moderates, and runs away with the contest in Southeastern MO, known as the Bootheel. Hanaway, at 18%, leads among suburban women and finishes 2nd in greater St Louis.

Greitens has a Plus 2 Net Favorability Rating, Brunner has a Minus 1 Net Favorability Rating, Kinder has a Plus 5 Net Favorability Rating, and Hanaway has a Minus 1 Net Favorability Rating.

In the primary for Lieutenant Governor, Mike Parson edges Bev Randles in a vote today, 37% to 26%. Parson’s support is more to the right: he leads Randles 2:1 among strong Republicans and leads by 18 points among “very conservative” voters. Randles leads Parson 2:1 among independents and leads by 3 points among independents who lean Republican. Randles pulls even with Parson among the most educated Republican primary voters, pulls to within 4 points of Parson among urban Republicans, but Parson leads in all 5 regions of the state, and leads 2:1 among the least affluent primary voters.

In the primary for Missouri Attorney General, Kurt Schaefer and Josh Hawley are locked in a tight fight as the campaign heads for the finish line. Schaefer, at 39%, has young support, which in a primary can be less reliable. Hawley, at 34%, has older support, and leads by 13 points among voters age 65+. The contest is effectively even among women; whatever advantage Schaefer may have comes from men. The candidates are tied in greater Kansas City MO and in the Ozarks. Schaefer is nominally ahead by 4 points in greater St Louis, leads by 8 points in the Bootheel, and leads by 16 points in Northern MO. This contest could go either way.

In the 08/02/16 Democratic Primary 

Chris Koster will win the primary for Governor. He leads challengers 8:1.

Russ Carnahan will win the primary for Lieutenant Governor. He leads Tommie Pierson 5:1.

The Attorney General primary is a jump ball — Teresa Hensley at 41%, Jake Zimmerman at 39%. Gender is everything: Hensley leads by 9 points among women. Zimmerman leads by 7 points among men. Among suburban women, Hensley leads by 15 points. The more women who vote in the Democratic primary, the better Hensley will do. The more men who vote in the Democratic primary, the better Zimmerman will do. Zimmerman leads by 4 points among white primary voters; Hensley leads by 16 points among African American primary voters. Zimmerman leads in union households; Hensley leads in non-union households. Zimmerman leads in rural MO; Hensley has a 7-point advantage in urban MO and a 6-point advantage in suburban MO. Hensley is up 2:1 in greater Kansas City MO.

In the 11/08/16 General Election 

Donald Trump defeats Hillary Clinton 47% to 37% today, in interviews completed during and after the Republican National Convention and before the beginning of the Democratic National Convention. Trump leads, as expected, among men. But Trump also leads Clinton, though narrowly, among all state of Missouri women. When just suburban women are examined, Clinton is 8 points atop Trump. In the Bootheel, Trump leads 3:1. In the Ozarks, Trump leads by more than 2:1. In Northern MO, Trump leads by almost 2:1. Only in greater Kansas City, where Clinton leads by 10 points, and in greater St Louis, where Clinton leads by 6 points, does the Democrat make a stand. Trump and Clinton split the Independent vote; Clinton leads by 8 points among moderates. Trump leads 3:1 among Evangelical voters. Clinton manages just a 3-point advantage in union households.

About 

SurveyUSA interviewed 2,546 state of Missouri adults 07/20/16 through 07/24/2016. Of the adults, 2,268 are registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,943 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election for President, 773 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/02/16 Republican primary and 500 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/02/16 Democratic primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (57% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (43% of registered voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Mitt Romney carried MO by 9 points in 2012. Barack Obama carried Missouri by one-tenth of 1 percent in 2008. George W Bush carried the state by 7 points in 2004 and by 3 points in 2000. All 3 top statewide offices — Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General — are “open” in 2016. There is no incumbent on the ballot: incumbent Governor Jay Nixon is term limited; incumbent Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder and incumbent Attorney General Chris Koster are running for Governor.

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