AL
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/28/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/31/2004
Capital
Survey
10/15/2004
Mobile
Register
10/3/2004
In Alphabetical Order, By State.
No SurveyUSA polls omitted.
This is an exhaustive accounting of every election contest polled by SurveyUSA during 2004,
and every known competing poll from final month of compaign. No competing polls omitted.
* = Incumbent
Current as of 11 am ET 11/24/04.
Actual returns are rounded to whole numbers, after actual margin is calculated.
Bush (R)* 63% 57% 53% 56% 59%
Kerry (D) 37% 39% 42% 32% 22%
1st Place minus 2nd 26 18 11 24 37
 
Survey USA: 636 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/27
Rasmussen Reports: Universe: n/a, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: n/a, Conducted: 10/17 - 10/30
Capital Survey: 546 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 11%, Conducted: 10/12 - 10/14
Mobile Register: 519 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.3%, Undecided: 17%, Conducted: 09/27 - 09/30
 
AR
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/30/2004
U of
Arkansas
10/27/2004
Opinion Research
Associates
10/24/2004
Zogby
Poll
10/14/2004
Bush (R)* 54% 51% 51% 47% 48% 46%
Kerry (D) 45% 46% 43% 40% 48% 45%
1st Place minus 2nd 9 5 8 7 0 1
 
SurveyUSA: 550 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.3%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/31 - 11/01
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/26 - 10/29
U of Arkansas: 758 Registered Voters, MOE: 3.6%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/05 - 10/20
Opinion Research Associates: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/18 - 10/20
Zogby Poll: 503 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/10 - 10/11
         
AR
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Opinion Research
Associates
10/21/2004
Zogby
Poll
10/12/2004
Lincoln (D) 56% 53% 66% 60%
Holt (R) 44% 43% 30% 32%
1st Place minus 2nd 12 10 36 28
 
SurveyUSA: 550 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.3%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/31-11/1
Opinion Research Associates: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/18-10/20
Zogby Poll: 503 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/10-10/11
 
AR
U.S. House
2nd Cong District
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/28/2004
Snyder (D) 58% 60%
Parks (R) 42% 36%
1st Place minus 2nd 16 24
 
SurveyUSA: 583 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/25-10/27
 
AZ
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/27/2004
KAET/
ASU
10/26/2004
Arizona
Republic
10/21/2004
NAU
Poll
10/13/2004
Bush (R)* 55% 56% 50% 47% 47% 49%
Kerry (D) 44% 41% 45% 42% 40% 44%
1st Place minus 2nd 11 15 5 5 7 5
 
SurveyUSA: 599 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/28 - 10/30
Rasmussen Reports: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/26
KAET/ASU: 573 Registered Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/19 - 10/21
Arizona Republic: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 13%, Conducted: 10/18 - 10/19
NAU Poll: 401 Likely Voters, MOE: 5.0%, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 10/07 - 10/11
 
CA
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/31/2004
Field
Poll
10/29/2004
LA
Times
10/21/2004
Strategic
Vision
10/21/2004
PPIC
Institute
10/18/2004
SJSU
Poll
10/6/2004
Kerry (D) 54% 54% 53% 49% 58% 50% 51% 48%
Bush (R)* 44% 43% 43% 42% 40% 41% 39% 42%
1st Place minus 2nd 10 11 10 7 18 9 12 6
 
SurveyUSA: 767 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.6%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
Rasmussen Reports: MOE: 4.5%, Conducted: 10/24 - 10/30
Field Poll: 1086 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.3%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/21 - 10/27
LA Times: 925 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/14 - 10/18
Strategic Vision: 801 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/16 - 10/18
PPIC Institute: 1170 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/10 - 10/17
SJSU Poll: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 09/27 - 10/01
 
CA
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Field
Poll
10/29/2004
Strategic
Vision
10/20/2004
LA Times
Poll
10/19/2004
PPIC
Institute
10/18/2004
Boxer (D) 58% 57% 53% 53% 55% 53%
Jones (R) 38% 36% 34% 36% 33% 35%
1st Place minus 2nd 20 21 19 17 22 18
 
SurveyUSA: 767 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.6%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Field Poll: 1086 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.2%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/21-10/27
Strategic Vision: 801 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 8%, Conducted: 10/16-10/18
LA Times Poll: 925 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/14-10/18
PPIC Institute: 170 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/10-10/17
         
CA
Mayor
San Diego
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/28/2004
CERC
11/1/04
PRM
Consulting
11/1/04
Murphy 35% 31% 27% 32%
Frye 34% 29% 30% 29%
Roberts 31% 30% 27% 37%
1st Place minus 2nd 1 2 -3 3
         
SurveyUSA: 522 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.4%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/25-10/27/04
CERC: 402 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.7%, Undecided: 15%, Conducted: 10/30-10/31/04
PRM Consulting: Universe: n/a, MOE: n/a, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: n/a
 
CO
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Zogby
Poll
11/1/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/30/2004
POS
10/30/2004
Fairbank
Maslin
10/26/2004
Circuli
Associates
10/22/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/20/2004
CNN/USAT/
Gallup Poll
10/18/2004
Bush (R)* 52% 50% 49% 50% 51% 48% 48% 50% 51%
Kerry (D) 47% 47% 47% 43% 42% 48% 42% 45% 45%
1st Place minus 2nd 5 3 2 7 9 0 6 5 6
 
SurveyUSA: 705 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.8%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/30 - 11/01
Zogby Poll: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/29 - 11/01
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 10/26 - 10/29
POS: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.3%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/27
Fairbank Maslin: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/20 - 10/21
Circuli Associates: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/15 - 10/19
Rasmussen Reports: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/18
CNN/USAT/Gallup Poll: 666 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/14 - 10/17
 
CO
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
Survey
USA
11/1/2001
Zogby
Poll
10/31/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/29/2004
POS
10/29/2004
Ciruli
Associates
10/22/2004
Fairbank
Maslin
10/22/2004
Global
Strategy
10/20/2004
Harstad
 Research
10/19/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/19/2004
Gallup
Poll
10/18/2004
K. Salazar (D) 51% 51% 52% 46% 48% 47% 50% 49% 49% 50% 49%
Coors (R) 47% 47% 44% 46% 42% 43% 45% 43% 43% 46% 48%
1st Place minus 2nd 4 4 8 0 6 4 5 6 6 4 1
 
SurveyUSA: 701 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.8%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/30-11/1
Zogby Poll: 602 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/28-10/31
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/25-10/27
POS: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.3%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/25-10/27
Ciruli Associates: 600 Registered Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/15-10/19
Fairbank Maslin: 400 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.9%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/20-10/21
Global Strategy: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 8%, Conducted: 10/17/10/19
Harstad Research: 515 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.6%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/17-10/18
Rasmussen Reports: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/18
Gallup Poll: 666 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/14-10/17
 
CO
Amendment 35
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/29/2004
POS
10/29/2004
Yes 61% 61% 58% 59%
No 39% 38% 35% 39%
1st Place minus 2nd 21 23 23 20
 
SurveyUSA: 615 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/28-10/30/04
Mason Dixon: 625 n/a, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: n/a
POS: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.3%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/25-10/27/04
 
CO
Amendment 36
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/29/2004
No 65% 65% 55%
Yes 35% 32% 31%
1st Place minus 2nd 30 33 24
 
SurveyUSA: 583 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.4%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/28-10/30/04
Mason Dixon: 625 n/a, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 14%, Conducted: n/a
 
CO
U.S. House
3rd Cong District
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/28/2004
Fairbank
Maslin
10/22/2004
Anzalone-Liszt
Research
10/1/2004
J. Salazar (D) 51% 48% 47% 48%
Walcher (R) 47% 45% 30% 33%
1st Place minus 2nd 4 3 17 15
 
SurveyUSA: 630 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/25-10/27
Fairbank Maslin: 259 Likely Voters, MOE: 6.2%, Undecided: 20%, Conducted: 10/20-10/21
Anzalone-Liszt Research: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.4%, Undecided: 19%, Conducted: 9/28-9/30
 
FL
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
ARG
Poll
11/1/2004
Insider
Advantage
11/1/2004
Opinion Dynamics (FOX)
11/1/2004
Quinnipiac
University
11/1/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
11/1/2004
Strategic
Vision
11/1/2004
Zogby
Poll
11/1/2004
CNN/USAT/
Gallup Poll
10/31/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/30/2004
Hamilton
Beattie
10/29/2004
NY Times
(no CBS)
10/29/2004
LA Times
Poll
10/28/2004
Research
2000
10/23/2004
Schroth
Associates
10/23/2004
U Northern
Florida
10/20/2004
Wash Post
(no ABC)
10/16/2004
HB&S
Poll
10/07/2004
Bush (R)* 52% 49% 48% 48% 44% 51% 50% 50% 48% 47% 49% 48% 47% 51% 47% 46% 44% 48% 47%
Kerry (D) 47% 48% 50% 48% 49% 43% 47% 46% 48% 50% 45% 46% 48% 43% 48% 46% 45% 48% 49%
1st Place minus 2nd 5 1 -2 0 -5 8 3 4 0 -3 4 2 -1 8 -1 0 -1 0 -2
 
SurveyUSA: 742 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
ARG Poll: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/30 - 11/01
Insider Advantage: 400 Likely Voters, MOE: 5.0%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
Opinion Dynamics (FOX): 700 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/30 - 10/31
Quinnipiac University: 1098 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/27 - 10/31
Rasmussen Reports: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/31
Strategic Vision: 801 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
Zogby Poll: 601 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/29 - 11/01
CNN/USAT/Gallup Poll: 1138 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/28 - 10/30
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 10/26 - 10/29
Hamilton Beattie: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/24 - 10/27
NY Times (no CBS): 802 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/23 - 10/27
LA Times Poll: 510 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/22 - 10/26
Research 2000: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/18 - 10/21
Schroth Associates: 800 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/19 - 10/21
U Northern Florida: 641 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/10 - 10/15
Wash Post (no ABC): 655 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/04 - 10/10
HB & S Poll: 800 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/01 - 10/04
 
FL
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Gallup
Poll
11/1/2004
Insider
Advantage
11/1/2004
Opinion
Dynamics
11/1/2004
Quinnipiac
U
11/1/2004
Strategic
Vision
11/1/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/30/2004
NY Times
(no CBS)
10/30/2004
Hamilton
Beattie
10/28/2004
Global
Strategy
10/27/2004
Zogby
Poll
10/26/2004
Research
2000
10/25/2004
Schroth
Associates
10/25/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/23/2004
U Northern
FL
10/16/2004
Wash Post
(no ABC)
10/16/2004
Martinez (R) 49% 48% 46% 46% 41% 49% 49% 47% 44% 46% 43% 46% 48% 44% 47% 35% 47%
Castor (D) 48% 48% 47% 47% 47% 44% 45% 46% 47% 46% 47% 46% 48% 44% 48% 38% 47%
1st Place minus 2nd 1 0 -1 -1 -6 5 4 1 -3 0 -4 0 0 0 -1 -3 0
 
SurveyUSA: 742 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Gallup Poll: 1521 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/28-10/31
Insider Advantage: 400 Likely Voters, MOE: 5.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Opinion Dynamics: 700 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 12%, Conducted: 10/30-10/31
Quinnipiac U: 1098 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/27-10/31
Strategic Vision: 801 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/26-10/27
NY Times (no CBS): 802 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/23-10/27
Hamilton Beattie: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/24-10/27
Global Strategy: 700 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/24-10/26
Zogby Poll: 599 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/28-10/31
Research 2000: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/18-10/21
Schroth Associates: 800 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/19-10/21
Rasmussen Reports: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: n/a, Conducted: 10/21
U Northern FL: 614 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 24%, Conducted: 10/10-10/15
Wash Post (no ABC): 665 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 8/4-8/10
 
FL
Palm Beach County
Sheriff Runoff
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/27/2004
Bradshaw 57% 49%
Eggleston 43% 42%
1st Place minus 2nd 14 7
 
SurveyUSA: 707 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.8%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/24-10/26/04
 
GA
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Strategic
Vision
11/1/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/31/2004
Zogby/
AJC
10/30/2004
Bush (R)* 58% 55% 55% 54% 52%
Kerry (D) 41% 43% 41% 39% 42%
1st Place minus 2nd 17 12 14 15 10
 
SurveyUSA: 628 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/28 - 10/30
Strategic Vision: 801 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
Rasmussen Reports: MOE: 4.5%, Conducted: 10/17 - 10/30
Zogby/AJC: 501 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/27 - 10/29
 
GA
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Strategic
Vision
11/1/2004
Zogby
Poll
10/30/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/11/2004
Isakson (R) 58% 56% 55% 49% 54%
Majette (D) 40% 40% 40% 36% 42%
1st Place minus 2nd 18 16 15 13 12
 
SurveyUSA: 628 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/28-10/30
Strategic Vision: 801 Registered Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Zogby Poll: 501 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 11%, Conducted: 10/27-10/29
Rasmussen Reports: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/6