Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12862

Geography Surveyed: Oregon
Data Collected: 10/24/2007 - 10/28/2007
Release Date: 11/05/2007
Sponsor: Roll Call Newspaper, Capitol Hill

2008 U.S. Senate Election in Oregon

Republican Incumbent Smith Narrowly Defeats Either Democratic Challenger Today: In an election for United States Senate in Oregon today, 11/05/07, one year to the vote, incumbent Republican Gordon Smith is re-elected when facing either of two Democratic challengers, though the margin is single digits, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill. Smith defeats Jeff Merkley by 9 points, 48% to 39% today. Smith defeats Steve Novick by 6 points, 45% to 39% today. Smith holds 80% of the GOP base against Merkley and holds 79% of the GOP base against Novick. By comparison: Merkley holds 67% and Novick holds 66% of the Democratic base. Among Independents, Novick leads by 6, Merkley by 4. As expected, Conservatives break overwhelmingly for the Republican, Liberals break overwhelmingly for the Democrat. Smith leads Merkley by 5 points among Moderates. Smith leads Novick by 4 points among Moderates.

2 of 3 Oregon voters are 'Unfamiliar' with Democrats Seeking to Unseat Smith: The two Democrats challenging Smith remain virtually unknown. Here are the Favorability numbers: Smith: 26% Favorable, 30% Unfavorable, 31% Neutral, 13% Unfamiliar. Net Favorability = Minus 4 ... Merkley: 5% Favorable, 10% Unfavorable, 18% Neutral, 67% Unfamiliar. Net Favorability = Minus 5 ... Novick: 5% Favorable, 7% Unfavorable, 17% Neutral, 71% Unfamiliar. Net Favorability = Minus 2 ... Nancy Pelosi: 28%, 43%, 17%, 12%. Net Favorability = Minus 15 ... Harry Reid: 23%, 35%, 25%, 16%. Net Favorability = Minus 12 ... Mitch McConnell: 18%, 33%, 24%, 22%. Net Favorability = Minus 15 ... John Boehner: 14%, 32%, 25%, 26%. Net Favorability = Minus 18 ... President Bush's Job Approval is 32%. Half that many, 16%, approve of the job Congress is doing.

Congress Should Focus on Iraq and Immigration Ahead of All Other Issues: Asked which one of eight issues Congress should focus on ahead of all others, 21% of Oregonians pick Iraq, 20% pick Immigration (effectively even). Among voters who pick Iraq: Merkley leads by 24 points, Novick leads by 25 points. Among voters who pick Immigration, Smith leads by 50 points over Merkley and leads by 58 points over Novick.

Filtering: 750 Oregon adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/24/07 through 10/28/07. Of them, 641 were registered to vote and included in this survey.