Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12862

Geography Surveyed: Oregon
Data Collected: 10/24/2007 - 10/28/2007
Release Date: 11/05/2007
Sponsor: Roll Call Newspaper, Capitol Hill

2008 U.S. Senate Election in Oregon

Republican Incumbent Smith Narrowly Defeats Either Democratic Challenger Today: In an election for United States Senate in Oregon today, 11/05/07, one year to the vote, incumbent Republican Gordon Smith is re-elected when facing either of two Democratic challengers, though the margin is single digits, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill. Smith defeats Jeff Merkley by 9 points, 48% to 39% today. Smith defeats Steve Novick by 6 points, 45% to 39% today. Smith holds 80% of the GOP base against Merkley and holds 79% of the GOP base against Novick. By comparison: Merkley holds 67% and Novick holds 66% of the Democratic base. Among Independents, Novick leads by 6, Merkley by 4. As expected, Conservatives break overwhelmingly for the Republican, Liberals break overwhelmingly for the Democrat. Smith leads Merkley by 5 points among Moderates. Smith leads Novick by 4 points among Moderates.

2 of 3 Oregon voters are 'Unfamiliar' with Democrats Seeking to Unseat Smith: The two Democrats challenging Smith remain virtually unknown. Here are the Favorability numbers: Smith: 26% Favorable, 30% Unfavorable, 31% Neutral, 13% Unfamiliar. Net Favorability = Minus 4 ... Merkley: 5% Favorable, 10% Unfavorable, 18% Neutral, 67% Unfamiliar. Net Favorability = Minus 5 ... Novick: 5% Favorable, 7% Unfavorable, 17% Neutral, 71% Unfamiliar. Net Favorability = Minus 2 ... Nancy Pelosi: 28%, 43%, 17%, 12%. Net Favorability = Minus 15 ... Harry Reid: 23%, 35%, 25%, 16%. Net Favorability = Minus 12 ... Mitch McConnell: 18%, 33%, 24%, 22%. Net Favorability = Minus 15 ... John Boehner: 14%, 32%, 25%, 26%. Net Favorability = Minus 18 ... President Bush's Job Approval is 32%. Half that many, 16%, approve of the job Congress is doing.

Congress Should Focus on Iraq and Immigration Ahead of All Other Issues: Asked which one of eight issues Congress should focus on ahead of all others, 21% of Oregonians pick Iraq, 20% pick Immigration (effectively even). Among voters who pick Iraq: Merkley leads by 24 points, Novick leads by 25 points. Among voters who pick Immigration, Smith leads by 50 points over Merkley and leads by 58 points over Novick.

Filtering: 750 Oregon adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/24/07 through 10/28/07. Of them, 641 were registered to vote and included in this survey.

1
  Asked of 641 registered voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

Is your opinion of Gordon Smith ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, are you unfamiliar with Gordon Smith?

26% Favorable
30% Unfavorable
31% Neutral
13% Unfamiliar

2
  Asked of 641 registered voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.7%

Is your opinion of Jeff Merkley ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, are you unfamiliar with Jeff Merkley?

5% Favorable
10% Unfavorable
18% Neutral
67% Unfamiliar

3
  Asked of 641 registered voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.6%

Is your opinion of Steve Novick ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, are you unfamiliar with Steve Novick?

5% Favorable
7% Unfavorable
17% Neutral
71% Unfamiliar

4
  Asked of 641 registered voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

If there were an election for United States Senate today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were (names rotated) Republican Gordon Smith and Democrat Jeff Merkley, who would you vote for?

48% Smith (R)
39% Merkley (D)
13% Undecided

5
  Asked of 641 registered voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

What if the only two candidates on the ballot were (names rotated) Republican Gordon Smith and Democrat Steve Novick? Who would you vote for?

45% Smith (R)
39% Novick (D)
16% Undecided

6
  Asked of 637 registered voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.9%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

32% Approve
62% Disapprove
6% Not Sure

7
  Asked of 633 registered voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.6%

Do you approve? Or disapprove? Of the job the United States Congress is doing?

16% Approve
72% Disapprove
12% Not Sure

8
  Asked of 626 registered voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

Democrat Nancy Pelosi is Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. Is your impression of Nancy Pelosi .... Favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or do you have no impression?

28% Favorable
43% Unfavorable
17% Neutral
12% No Impression
1% Not Sure

9
  Asked of 605 registered voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%

Democrat Harry Reid is Majority Leader of the United States Senate. If your impression of Harry Reid is ...

23% Favorable
35% Unfavorable
25% Neutral
16% No Impression
2% Not Sure

10
  Asked of 593 registered voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%

Republican Mitch McConnell is the Minority Leader of the United States Senate. If your impression of McConnell is ...

18% Favorable
33% Unfavorable
24% Neutral
22% No Impression
2% Not Sure

11
  Asked of 574 registered voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.2%

Republican John Boehner is Minority Leader of the U.S. House of Representatives. If your impression of Boehner is...

14% Favorable
32% Unfavorable
25% Neutral
26% No Impression
3% Not Sure

12
  Asked of 569 registered voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.2%

Which one issue should Congress focus on ahead of all others? The economy? The environment? Health care? Iraq? Terrorism? Social Security? Education? Immigration? Or some other issue?

11% Economy
8% Environment
13% Health Care
21% Iraq
13% Terrorism
4% Social Security
8% Education
20% Immigration
2% Other
1% Not Sure

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