Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13166

Geography Surveyed: Florida
Data Collected: 01/09/2008 - 01/10/2008
Release Date: 01/11/2008 11:00 AM ET
Sponsors: WFLA-TV Tampa, WKRG-TV Mobile-Pensacola

Suddenly, NH Win Slingshots McCain Past Giuliani in Florida Republican Primary: Rudolph Giuliani, who had led in a Florida Republican Primary by as many as 14 points in previous SurveyUSA tracking polls, today trails John McCain by 8 points, fighting with Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney to hold onto 2nd place, 3 days after McCain won the New Hampshire Primary. At this hour, in polling completed exclusively for WFLA-TV and WKRG-TV, conducted after New Hampshire, but before the Myrtle Beach GOP Debate, Florida stands: McCain in 1st at 27%, Giuliani at 19%, Huckabee at 17%, and Romney at 17%, all tied for 2nd place, with Fred Thompson and Ron Paul further back. Giuliani's entire campaign is predicated on a win in Florida on 01/29/08, immediately followed by wins in other "big states." Giuliani did not compete in Iowa and competed half-heartedly in New Hampshire and South Carolina, concentrating his time and once-considerable resources on Florida. Now, McCain runs stronger than Giuliani in all 5 regions of Florida, including Southeast Florida, where Giuliani had led McCain by 51 points 6 weeks ago. Among males, Giuliani's support is half of what it was 5 weeks ago. McCain among men jumped 20 points after New Hampshire. Among Conservatives, Huckabee is tied with McCain for the lead, Giuliani and Romney tied for 3rd place. Among Moderates, McCain leads Giuliani 2:1 and leads Huckabee 5:1. Among voters age 49 and younger, Huckabee, McCain and Giuliani are in an effective tie for the lead. Among voters age 50+, McCain leads Giuliani by 11.

Filtering / Caveats: 2,000 state of Florida adults were interviewed on 01/09/08 and 01/10/08, after the New Hampshire Primary results were known and before a GOP debate in Myrtle Beach which began at 9 pm on 01/10/08. Of the adults, 1,744 were registered to vote. Of them, 502 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 01/29/08 Florida Republican Primary. In the 17 days between this poll and the Florida Primary, voting will take place in Michigan and South Carolina, and John McCain's momentum will either be stronger or weaker. Other Republican story lines can and will buffet these results.