Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12737

Geography Surveyed: New Mexico
Data Collected: 10/05/2007 - 10/07/2007
Release Date: 10/08/2007 10:15 AM ET
Sponsor: KOB-TV Albuquerque

10 Possible Head-to-Head U.S. Senate Pairings Tested for Domenici NM Seat: When 5 possible New Mexico Democrats are paired-off against 2 possible New Mexico Republicans, in the contest to replace U.S. Senator Pete Domenici, who announced 10/04/07 his decision to retire from the Senate, Republicans win 5 match-ups and hold the seat, Democrats win 4 match-ups and take-away the seat, and one pairing is a tie, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KOB-TV. Starting with Republican candidate Steven Pearce, Congressman from New Mexico's 2nd District: Pearce loses to Congressman Tom Udall by 18 points, loses to Governor Bill Richardson by 24 points, defeats Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez by 21 points, defeats former Attorney General Patricia Madrid by 16 points, and defeats businessman Don Wiviott by 35 points. Now to Republican candidate Heather Wilson, Congresswoman from New Mexico's 1st Congressional District: Wilson loses to Udall by 18 points (same as Pearce), loses to Richardson by 27 points (Wilson runs 3 points weaker than Pearce), defeats Chavez by 4 points (Wilson runs 17 points weaker than Pearce), effectively ties Patricia Madrid (Wilson runs 15 points weaker than Pearce), and defeats Wiviott by 17 points (Wilson runs 18 points weaker than Pearce). Said the opposite way: Richardson and Udall defeat either Republican, and take-away the seat for Democrats. Wiviott is defeated by either Republican. Chavez and Madrid both are competitive against Wilson. All of the above is true today, 10/08/07, 56 weeks to the General Election on 11/04/08, but much can and will change as the contest begins to take shape.

Whether in Sympathy, or in Agreement with his Decision to Retire, Domenici Job Approval Jumps Up: SurveyUSA has been tracking Senator Domenici's Job Approval monthly for 29 consecutive months. On 09/25/07, SurveyUSA reported that Domenici's Job Approval had fallen to 41%, the first time in 29 months that the Senator's Disapproval number, 54%, had been higher than his approval number. 9 days later, Domenici announced his intention to retire. In interviews conducted over the 3 days immediately following Domenici's announcement to step down, approval of Domenici shoots back up to 59%, higher than it has been in 8 months. This may be in sympathy for a medical condition that the Senator revealed, or it may be a reflection of constituents approving of the Senator's decision to step down. By contrast, and as a control on Domenici's numbers, U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman's Job Approval went up (a statistically insignificant) 1 point from 09/25/07 to today, while Domenici's Approval went up 18 points. Additional tracking in future months will put today's Job Approval numbers into perspective.

Filtering and Context: U.S. Senator Pete Domenici announced 10/04/07 his decision to not seek re-election to a 7th term in the U.S. Senate. 625 New Mexico adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA on the next 3 days, 10/05/07 through 10/07/07. Adults were asked to rate both sitting New Mexico Senators. Of the 625 adults, 514 were registered to vote in New Mexico. The registered voters only were asked about the head-to-head candidate pairings. As this survey was going into the field on 10/05/07, Tom Udall announced that he was not a candidate to replace Domenici. Because of the potential for learning, SurveyUSA elected to leave Udall's name in the rotation of candidate pairings.

1
  Asked of 514 Registered Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.4 percentage points.

New Mexico will elect a United States Senator in November 2008. If the election for United States Senator were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Steve Pearce and Democrat Tom Udall, who would you vote for?

37% Pearce (R)
55% Udall (D)
8% Undecided

2
  Asked of 514 Registered Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.3 percentage points.

What if the only two candidates on the ballot for United States Senator were Republican Steve Pearce and Democrat Bill Richardson?

36% Pearce (R)
60% Richardson (D)
5% Undecided

3
  Asked of 514 Registered Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.4 percentage points.

What if the only two candidates on the ballot for United States Senator were Republican Steve Pearce and Democrat Marty Chavez?

56% Pearce (R)
35% Chavez (D)
9% Undecided

4
  Asked of 514 Registered Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.4 percentage points.

What if the only two candidates on the ballot for United States Senator were Republican Steve Pearce and Democrat Patricia Madrid?

54% Pearce (R)
38% Madrid (D)
8% Undecided

5
  Asked of 514 Registered Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.4 percentage points.

What if the only two candidates on the ballot for United States Senator were Republican Steve Pearce and Democrat Don Wiviott?

58% Pearce (R)
23% Wiviott (D)
20% Undecided

6
  Asked of 514 Registered Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.4 percentage points.

What if the only two candidates on the ballot for United States Senator were Republican Heather Wilson and Democrat Tom Udall?

38% Wilson (R)
56% Udall (D)
5% Undecided

7
  Asked of 514 Registered Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.3 percentage points.

What if the only two candidates on the ballot for United States Senator were Republican Heather Wilson and Democrat Bill Richardson?

35% Wilson (R)
62% Richardson (D)
4% Undecided

8
  Asked of 514 Registered Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.4 percentage points.

What if the only two candidates on the ballot for United States Senator were Republican Heather Wilson and Democrat Marty Chavez?

48% Wilson (R)
44% Chavez (D)
8% Undecided

9
  Asked of 514 Registered Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.4 percentage points.

What if the only two candidates on the ballot for United States Senator were Republican Heather Wilson and Democrat Patricia Madrid?

46% Wilson (R)
45% Madrid (D)
9% Undecided

10
  Asked of 514 Registered Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.4 percentage points.

What if the only two candidates on the ballot for United States Senator were Republican Heather Wilson and Democrat Don Wiviott?

51% Wilson (R)
34% Wiviott (D)
15% Undecided

11
  Asked of 625 adult respondents
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.9 percentage points.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Pete Domenici is doing as United States Senator?

59% Approve
33% Disapprove
9% Not Sure

12
  Asked of 625 adult respondents
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.9 percentage points.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jeff Bingaman is doing as United States Senator?

59% Approve
30% Disapprove
11% Not Sure

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  Statement of Methodology
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