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Jump Ball in CO4; Democrat Paccione Catches Republican Musgrave:
96 hours to the election, the contest for U.S. House of Representatives in Colorado's 4th Congressional District is the closest it has been in 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls conducted exclusively over the past 10 weeks for KUSA-TV Denver. 10 weeks ago, the incumbent Republican Marilyn Musgrave led by 4. 6 weeks ago, identical, Musgrave by 4. 2 weeks ago, Musgrave led by 10.
Today, Musgrave leads by 1, far enough inside of the survey's 4.2 percent margin of sampling error that the contest should be reported as a tie. Favoring Democrat challenger Angie Paccione: males have rallied to her. Compared to 2 weeks ago, among males, Paccione is up 12 points, Musgrave is down 9 points. Musgrave had led by 22 among males, now is tied. Females have been and remain tied.
Favoring Republican incumbent Musgrave: the number of self-identified Republican likely voters in today's sample is 42%, the lowest it has been in 4 polls. The number of self-identified Democrats in today's sample is 32%, the highest in 4 polls. If the composition of actual voters is closer to 46% Republican and 27% Democrat, as it has been in prior SurveyUSA polls, advantage Musgrave. 81% of Republicans vote Republican. 78% of Democrats vote Democrat. Paccione's support is up sharply among Independents, where she had led 4:3, but today leads 2:1. Older voters have also broken late for Paccione. In 3 prior tracking polls, Paccione trailed among voters 65+ by 11, 12, and 12 points. Today, she leads by 2, a 14-point swing. Observation: Colorado's Governor race is not competitive, according to SurveyUSA's most recent polling for KUSA-TV, but Colorado does have a number of fiercely contested constitutional amendments on the ballot. Turnout in the 4th Congressional District may be influenced by voters who show up on Election Day with a passionate position on marriage, marijuana or the minimum wage. Musgrave was first elected to Congress in 2002.
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