Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12109

Geography Surveyed: Kentucky
Data Collected: 05/12/2007 - 05/14/2007
Release Date: 05/15/2007 10:45 AM ET
Sponsors: WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WHAS-TV Louisville

1 Week to Kentucky Primary for Governor ...

Democrats - Beshear Lunsford Runoff Likely: In a Democratic Primary for Governor of Kentucky today, 5/15/07, one week to the 5/22/07 vote, the ticket of Steve Beshear and Dan Mongiardo leap to a first-ever first-place finish, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely Kentucky Democratic primary voters, conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati. Today, it's Beshear/Mongiardo 32%, the ticket of Bruce Lunsford and Greg Stumbo in 2nd place at 23%. Neither ticket appears likely to reach the 40% needed to avoid a 6/26/07 runoff. A five-week head-to-head runoff campaign between Beshear and Lunsford is likely to begin the morning after the 5/15/07 Primary. The ticket of Steve Henry and Renee True today finishes in 3rd place at 18%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released two weeks ago on 5/1/07, Beshear is up 9 points, from 23% to 32%. Lunsford is down 6 points, from 29% to 23%. Henry is unchanged at 18%. Beshear has traction among men, in North Central KY and in Western KY. Among men, Beshear is up 9 points from 2 weeks ago, Lunsford is down 12 points, a swing of 21 points to Beshear. In North Central KY, Beshear is up 13 points, from 3rd place 2 weeks ago to 1st place today. In Western KY, Beshear is up 10 points, Lunsford is down 10 points, a swing of 20 points to Beshear. In four SurveyUSA tracking polls beginning 03/06/07, Beshear has polled 15% (2nd place), 15% (3rd place), 23% (2nd place) and 32% today (1st place). Henry leads in greater Louisville. The lead in this contest has changed hands 3 times in 4 tracking polls. With 6 surviving candidates, and the lack of a clear frontrunner, a runoff appears inevitable.

Republicans -- Fletcher Continues to Lead Northup, but Can He Avoid a Runoff? In a Republican Primary for Governor of Kentucky today, 5/15/07, one week to the 5/22/07 vote, incumbent Republican Ernie Fletcher and running mate Robbie Rudolph appear to fend-off a challenge from former U.S. Congresswoman Anne Northup and her running mate Jeff Hoover, and may have just enough support to avoid a runoff, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely Republican primary voters, conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati. The ticket of Fletcher-Rudolph gets 44% today. The ticket of Northup-Hoover gets 34% today. In four SurveyUSA tracking polls, Fletcher has never trailed. His support was 33% on 3/6/07, 40% on 4/3/07, 46% on 5/1/07 and 44% today, 5/15/07. Northup has never led. Her support was 31% on both 3/6/07 and 4/3/07, 34% on both 5/1/07 and 5/15/07. Though the contest is fiercely fought, the polling shows remarkable stability, in stark contrast to the Democratic Primary battle. In no demographic subpopulation where Fletcher led two weeks ago does Northup lead today. In no demographic subpopulation where Northup led two weeks ago does Fletcher lead today. Fletcher leads by 35 points in Eastern KY; Fletcher leads by 24 points in North Central KY; Fletcher leads by 19 points in Western KY. Fletcher needs strong turnout in these regions to finish with more than 40% of the vote, which is what's needed to avoid a head-to-head runoff with Northup. Northup leads by 36 points in Greater Louisville. She needs exceptionally strong turnout in Louisville to drag Fletcher below 40%, and force a runoff without Billy Harper in the race. The ticket of Harper-Wilson is at 14% in today's SurveyUSA poll. To the extent Harper's support is an anti-Fletcher vote, Harper supporters would benefit Northup in a runoff. In the past two weeks, Northup has gained some ground among men. On 5/1/07, she trailed Fletcher by 15 among men, today she trails by 8.

Filtering: 2,000 Kentucky adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 05/12/07 through 05/14/07. Of them, 1750 were registered to vote, including 904 registered Democrats and 702 registered Republicans. Of the 904 registered Democrats 676 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the 5/22/07 Democratic primary and were included in the survey. Of the 702 registered Republicans, 511 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the 5/22/07 Republican primary and were included in the survey.

Tracking: SurveyUSA released tracking polls in the Kentucky primaries on 3/6/07 and 4/3/07. In both of those polls, "running mates" (the Lieutenant Governors) were not named. In the 5/1/07 release and in today's 5/15/07 release, SurveyUSA used a questionnaire that did name running mates. SurveyUSA includes here the tracking only from the apples-to-apples 5/1/07 and 5/15/07 releases. Results from the 3/6/07 and 4/3/07 SurveyUSA releases, which did not name running mates, are available here: SurveyUSA Kentucky Tracking Data. Separately, on 5/7/07, candidate Jonathan Miller withdrew from the race. The ticket of Miller/Maze was named in SurveyUSA's 5/1/07 questionnaire, but was removed from the questionnaire used to generate today's 5/15/07 data.