Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13542

Geography Surveyed: IL 14th CD RBS
Data Collected: 03/03/2008 - 03/04/2008
Release Date: 03/05/2008 7:00 AM ET
Sponsor: Roll Call Newspaper, Capitol Hill

Republican Oberweis In Uphill Fight to Beat Democrat Foster in Race for Hastert's US House Seat: In the final week of the campaign to replace Dennis Hastert in Illinois' 14th Congressional District, Democrat Bill Foster runs ever-so-slightly ahead of Republican Jim Oberweis, with both candidates positioned for a possible win on Saturday 03/08/08. Oberweis leads by 8 among men. Foster leads by 23 among women. When men and women are combined, it's Foster 52%, Oberweis 45%, in research conducted exclusively for Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill. Oberweis holds 89% of the Republican base. Foster holds 97% of the Democrat base. Independents break 3:2 Democrat. Hispanics vote Republican. Hispanics are 18% of the District, but 6% of SurveyUSA's likely voters. If Hispanics are under-counted here, Oberweis will over-perform these numbers. Should Foster win, Hastert's Republican-held House seat flips. The contest has national implications.

Favorability: Among likely voters: Hastert is viewed favorably by 48%, unfavorably by 35%, for Net Plus 13. IL Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich is viewed favorably by 12%, unfavorably by 74%, for a Net Minus 62. IL Democratic Senator Barack Obama is viewed favorably by 49%, unfavorably by 35%, for a Net Plus 14. 36% of likely voters say Congress should continue funding the Iraq war at the level requested by the President. 35% say Congress should fund the war, but at a different Level. 26% say Congress should stop funding the war. 39% say the Bush tax cuts should be allowed to expire, 52% say the cuts should be made permanent. 47% say Congress should require those in the country illegally to leave, 39% say Congress should penalize illegals but allow them to stay, 10% say illegals should be allowed to stay without penalty.

Filtering: 725 registered voters were interviewed by SurveyUSA 03/03/08 and 03/04/08 using Registration Based Sampling from Aristotle. Of them, 517 told SurveyUSA they already voted, or were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the Special Election on 03/08/08. Among those who have already voted, Foster and Oberweis are effectively tied. The composition of the likely voters in this survey is: 37% Republican, 33% Democrat, 25% Independent; 32% Conservative, 41% Moderate, 19% Liberal. Caveat: In a low-turnout, stand-alone special election, held on a Saturday, it is difficult for any pollster to forecast turnout precisely. A close contest is forecast, but motivated Republican voters may well hold this House Seat for the GOP.