Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12966

Geography Surveyed: South Carolina
Data Collected: 11/09/2007 - 11/11/2007
Release Date: 11/13/2007 9:30 AM ET
Sponsors: WCSC-TV Charleston, WSPA-TV Greenville

South Carolina: Both Presidential Primaries Volatile, Two Months to the Vote

GOP Primary -- 5 in Double Digits, 4 within Striking Distance of Giuliani, Who Remains the One To Beat: In a Republican Primary for President of the United States held in South Carolina today, 11/13/07, two months to the vote, New Yorker Rudolph Giuliani finishes 1st at 26%, with 4 other Republicans bunched in his rear-view mirror. Mitt Romney is in 2nd place at 20%, just ahead of Fred Thompson who finishes 3rd at 18%. John McCain is 4th at 14%. Mike Huckabee is 5th at 12%. SC Republican primary voters are divided on what issue the next president should focus on ahead of all others. Those who name "Terrorism" consolidate behind Giuliani, then Huckabee. Those who name "Immigration" as the most important issue, back Romney and Thompson. Republicans are 12 times more likely than Democrats to name "Terrorism" as the issue the next president should focus on first. Romney leads Upstate, Giuliani leads in the Midlands and in the Low Country.

Democratic Primary -- Clinton Slugs it Out with Obama: In a Democratic Primary for President of the United States held in South Carolina today, 11/13/07, two months to the vote, Hillary Clinton leads with 47%, 14 points atop Barack Obama, at 33%. Clinton leads by 33 points among women. Obama leads by 19 point among men. A 52-point Gender Gap. Among white South Carolina Democratic Primary voters, Obama runs 3rd, behind John Edwards, who gets 17% of white votes and 10% overall. Obama gets 15% of white votes, 40 points behind Clinton, who gets 55% of white votes. Obama leads 5:4 among black voters, but that is not enough of a lead to catapult Obama past Clinton -- not today, anyway. In SurveyUSA's turnout model, 49% of likely Democratic voters are black, 48% are white. Clinton leads by 22 points Upstate, by 15 points in the Midlands, and by 5 points in the Low Country. Obama leads among voters under age 50. Democrats say Iraq is the most important issue for the next President to focus on, followed by the Economy, followed by Health Care. On all 3 issues, Clinton leads by at least 16 points.

Filtering: 2,200 South Carolina adults were interviewed 11/09/07 through 11/11/07. Of them 1,895 were registered to vote. Of the 1,895, a total of 1,483 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the South Carolina Presidential Primary. Of them, 201 were disqualified by SurveyUSA because they could not commit to voting "no matter what date the primary is held," and of the remaining 1,282 likely voters, 257 were disqualified by SurveyUSA because they said they had not decided yet which Primary they were going to vote in. The net yield is 577 likely Republican Primary voters and 447 likely Democratic Primary voters. All of these are voters who say they are certain to vote no matter what day the primary is held, and are certain today which one of the two primaries they will vote in. Caveat: Measuring African American turnout in South Carolina is a challenge in any election, but uniquely so in a Primary where an African American is a candidate for President. It is unknowable at this hour how many infrequent black voters, if any, Obama may turnout in a Primary, and, separately, how many infrequent young voters an Obama candidacy may attract in a Primary. These survey results should be evaluated with these caveats in mind.