Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #15665

Geography Surveyed: City of Seattle
Data Collected: 08/12/2009 - 08/16/2009
Release Date: 08/17/2009 2:05 PM ET
Sponsor: KING-TV Seattle

3-Way Free-For-All in Seattle Mayor's Primary: 24 hours till votes are counted in the Primary for Mayor of Seattle, a runoff is certain, with 2 of 3 tightly bunched candidates advancing. But which 2? At this hour, among all likely voters, incumbent Mayor Mike Nickels gets 26%, businessman Joe Mallahan gets 22%, community organizer Mike McGinn 21%. Those numbers are close-enough in a low-turnout municipal election to characterize the contest as a jump-ball. Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot in this 100% vote-by-mail election, the finish is Nickels 27%, Mallahan 25%, McGinn 23%. See this SurveyUSA interactive tracking graph to study movement among all likely voters. Research conducted for KING-TV Seattle.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 10 days ago, McGinn is up 6 points, from 15% then to 21% now. Mallahan is up 3 points, from 19% to 22%. Nickels is up 4 points, from 22% to 26%. Nickels' and McGinn's support is young. Mallahan's support is old. Nickels' support is disproportionately Democrat. Mallahan and McGinn do well among Independents.


Who Votes on Last Day Will Determine Whether Bag Bill is Defeated: Referendum 1, which would add a 20-cent fee to disposable shopping bags, may go down to the wire, or may be defeated soundly, depending on whether supporters walk-the-walk or just talk-the-talk. When just those who have already returned a ballot are examined, the measure is defeated convincingly. When SurveyUSA includes those who have not yet voted but who promise to do so in the next 24 hours, the ballot measure is defeated narrowly. Seniors oppose the measure by 2:1. Younger voters support the measure 5:4. Democrats narrowly support. Independents oppose 3:2, Republicans oppose 3:1.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 adults from the city of Seattle 08/12/09 through 08/16/09. Of them, 885 identified themselves as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 644 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to be likely to do so before the 8/18/09 deadline.

1
  Asked of 644 Likely and actual voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.9%

If the primary election for Seattle Mayor were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Greg Nickels? Jan Drago? James Donaldson? Joe Mallahan? Kwame Wyking Garrett? Norman Zadok Sigler? Mike McGinn? Or, Elizabeth Campbell?

26% Nickels
7% Drago
7% Donaldson
22% Mallahan
2% Garrett
2% Sigler
21% McGinn
3% Campbell
11% Undecided

2
  Asked of 644 likely and actual voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.9%

Also on the ballot is Referendum 1, which would add a 20 cent fee on disposable shopping bags. On Referendum 1, , are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Voters who were not certain were asked: At this hour, on Referendum 1, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?}

45% Certain Yes
52% Certain No
3% Not Certain

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  Statement of Methodology
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