Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #7295

Geography Surveyed: City of Detroit
Data Collected: 10/18/2005 - 10/19/2005
Release Date: 10/20/2005 11:55 AM ET
Sponsor: WDIV-TV Detroit

Kilpatrick Comes Off the Mat in Detroit Mayor Election, Slices Hendrix Lead: Following Monday night's debate and an endorsement by former rival Sharon McPhail, incumbent Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick has cut challenger Freman Hendrix's lead to 4 points, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 407 likely city of Detroit voters, conducted exclusively for WDIV-TV, Channel 4. In interviews conducted Tuesday 10/18/05 and Wednesday 10/19/05, Hendrix today 10/20 leads Kilpatrick 50% to 46%, with 4% undecided. The election is in 19 days, on 11/8/05. In 4 polls over the previous 10 weeks, Hendrix's lead had ranged between 11 and 17 points. Until today, Kilpatrick had never led among Detroit's African American voters. Today, Kilpatrick is up by 7 among blacks. Kilpatrick has also made gains among voters under age 35: in interviews conducted 10/15 to 10/17, Hendrix led by 1 point among voters age 18 to 34, but now Kilpatrick leads by 29 points among this group. Voters under age 35 are the least reliable voters, and the outcome of the election is sensitive to voter turnout within this age group. 18-34 year olds make-up 36% of city of Detroit adults, and in SurveyUSA's voter model, are assumed to be 31% of voters. If you instead assume that younger voters will turn out in lower numbers, Hendrix's lead increases. Specifically: if young voters make up 28% of voters on election day (instead of the 31% presumed here), Hendrix's lead increases to 5 points. If young voters make up 25% of voters on election day, Hendrix's lead increases to 6 points. All interviews for today's 10/20 release were completed prior to Detroit Free Press 10/20 endorsement of Hendrix, and prior to final candidate debate, tonight 10/20.

Filtering: 1,000 City of Detroit adults were interviewed 10/18/05 - 10/19/05. Of them, 940 were registered voters. Of them, 407 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect "likely" voters. The Hendrix-Kilpatrick debate began at 8pm Monday 10/17. 82% of respondents in the current poll were interviewed after McPhail endorsed Kilpatrick at 5:30pm Tuesday 10/18.