Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10434

Geography Surveyed: Maine
Data Collected: 10/20/2006 - 10/22/2006
Release Date: 10/23/2006 11:10 AM ET
Sponsor: WCSH-TV Portland

Indy & Green Party Maine Gov Candidates Begin to Eat Into Baldacci & Woodcock Support: In an election for Governor of Maine today, 10/23/06, Democrat incumbent John Baldacci remains atop a crowded multi-candidate field, but with support now down to 42% of likely voters, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCSH-TV Portland and WLBZ-TV Bangor. 15 days to the 11/7/06 election, Baldacci is 8 points ahead of Republican Chandler Woodcock, whose support is now down to 34%. Independent Barbara Merrill's support is up to 12%, up 5 points from an identical SurveyUSA poll released 9/27/06. Green Party candidate Pat LaMarche gets 9% today, up 3 points from 9/27/06. Though Baldacci's lead has grown from 5 points on 9/27 to 8 points today, Democrat optimism should be tempered: with 21% of the vote now going to Merrill and LaMarche, and with Baldacci's support declining, further repositioning in the contest is possible. 72% of Democrats vote for the Democrat. 75% of the Republicans vote for the Republican. Baldacci gets 38% of Independent voters, Woodcock gets 21%, LaMarche gets 19%, Merrill gets 17%. Baldacci leads by 17 points among women and trails by 2 points among men. Woodcock leads among voters under age 35. Baldacci leads in other age groups. Baldacci was first elected Governor in 2002.

As Voters Learn More, Oppostion To Taxpayer Bill of Rights Grows: In a referendum in Maine today, the Taxpayer Bill of Rights is defeated, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCSH-TV Portland and WLBZ-TV Bangor. In the 26 days since SurveyUSA's most recent poll on 9/27/06, the number of voters who are "not certain" how they will vote on the Taxpayer Bill of Rights has been halved, from 54% then to 27% today. Of voters who today are certain how they will vote on the Bill of Rights, 41% say they are are certain to vote "No." 32% are certain to vote "Yes." The number of voters who are certain to vote "No" has doubled, from 22% to 41%. The number of voters who today are certain to vote "No" has increased by 9 points, from 23% to 32%. Men are evenly divided on the measure. Women oppose it by 17 points. Republicans support by 23 points. Democrats oppose by 36 points. Independents oppose by 11 points. The most educated voters oppose the measure 3:1. SurveyUSA did not read voters the full ballot text. The exact language read to respondents in today's release appear in the table below.

Filtering: 1,000 Maine adults were interviewed 10/20/06 through 10/22/06. Of them, 890 were registered to vote. Of them, 634 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

1
  Asked of 634 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

If the election for Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Chandler Woodcock? Democrat John Baldacci? Green Party candidate Pat LaMarche? Independent candidate Barbara Merrill? Independent candidate Phillip NaPier? Or some other candidate?

34% Woodcock (R)
42% Baldacci (D)
9% LaMarche (G)
12% Merrill (I)
1% NaPier (I)
2% Undecided

2
  Asked of 634 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

Also on the ballot is a Taxpayer Bill of rights. On the Taxpayer bill of rights, are you...Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or, are you not certain yet how you will vote on the taxpayer bill of rights?

32% 'Certain' Yes
41% 'Certain' No
27% Not Certain

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  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
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  Statement of Methodology
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