Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16580

Geography Surveyed: California
Data Collected: 05/21/2010 - 05/23/2010
Release Date: 05/24/2010 12:35 PM ET
Sponsors: KABC-TV Los Angeles, KFSN-TV Fresno, KGTV-TV San Diego, KPIX-TV San Francisco

CA Republicans Whitman & Fiorina Surge; Air Goes Out of Poizner Statehouse Balloon; Campbell's Train to DC Stalls: California's Republican primary contests for Governor and US Senator have sea-sawed, according to new SurveyUSA polling conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno.

In the Republican primary for Governor, Meg Whitman has re-captured momentum she appeared to lose earlier this month, and today leads Steve Poizner 2:1, with 1 in 6 likely voters having already cast a ballot. SurveyUSA's tracking graphs display a pronounced bow-tie, exemplified by, but not limited to, male voters, where Whitman went from 51% support on 04/22/10 to 37% support on 05/10/10 to 55% support today 05/24/10. Poizner's angle of support is inverted, from 28% on 04/22/10 to 41% on 05/10/10 to 28% today 05/24/10. Almost identical sea-sawing is evident among gun owners and among likely voters in greater Los Angeles.

In the Republican primary for US Senator, support for former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is up sharply in the past 2 weeks, from 24% on 05/10/10 to 46% today 05/24/10. Fiorina's support has more than doubled among women, seniors, Hispanics, the less educated, and in the Inland Empire. During these 2 weeks, Former Congressman Tom Campbell's support dropped 12 points, from 35% on 05/10/10 to 23% today 05/24/10.

In the Republican primary for CA Attorney General, Los Angeles County DA Steve Cooley and State Senator Tom Harman today tie, with 29% voting Cooley, 28% Harman. But: another 29% of likely GOP Primary voters are undecided, which means any outcome is possible. Compared to 2 weeks ago, Cooley is up 7 points; Harman and a third candidate, law school professor John Eastman, are flat.

In the Democratic primary for CA Attorney General, San Francisco DA Kamala Harris edges businessman Chris Kelly and Los Angeles City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo, among voters who have a preference. But: almost half of of likely voters vote for someone else or are undecided, so any outcome is possible. Kelly is up 6 points from SurveyUSA's previous poll; Harris is up 3; Delgadillo is down 3. Incumbent Attorney General Jerry Brown is running for Governor.

In the Democratic primary for CA Governor, Jerry Brown coasts with 70% of the vote. 6 other Democrats combined get 15% of the vote. Brown served as California's 34th Governor, elected in 1974 and re-elected in 1978. Incumbent Governor Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger is term limited; the state's term limit law does not apply to terms served before 1990, allowing Brown to run for the office again.


Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,700 California adults 05/21/10 through 05/23/10. Of them, 2,311 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 612 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 06/08/10 Republican Primary; 716 were determined to be likely to vote in the 06/08/10 Democratic primary. Early voting began two weeks ago, 05/10/10.

1
  Asked of 612 likely & actual GOP primary voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

(candidate names rotated)
If the Republican Primary for Governor were today, who would you vote for? Bill Chambers? Douglas Hughes? Ken Miller? Larry Naritelli? Robert Newman? Steve Poizner? David Tully-Smith? Or, Meg Whitman?

2% Chambers
2% Hughes
2% Miller
2% Naritelli
1% Newman
27% Poizner
1% Tully-Smith
54% Whitman
9% Undecided

2
  Asked of 716 likely & actual Democratic primary voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.4%

(candidate names rotated)
If the Democratic Primary for Governor were today, who would you vote for? Richard Aguirre? Jerry Brown? Lowell Darling? Vibert Greene? Chuck Pineda Jr.? Peter Schurman? Or, Joe Symmon?

4% Aguirre
70% Brown
2% Darling
2% Greene
4% Pineda
1% Schurman
2% Symmon
14% Undecided

3
  Asked of 612 likely & actual GOP primary voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

(candidate names rotated)
California Republicans will also hold a primary for United States Senate. If the Republican Primary for US Senate were today, who would you vote for? Tom Campbell? Chuck DeVore? Carly Fiorina? Tim Kalemkarian? Or, Al Ramirez?

23% Campbell
14% DeVore
46% Fiorina
4% Kalemkarian
2% Ramirez
11% Undecided

4
  Asked of 612 likely & actual GOP primary voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

(candidate names rotated)
California Republicans will also hold a primary for Attorney General. If the Republican Primary for Attorney General were today, who would you vote for? Steve Cooley? John Eastman? Or, Tom Harman?

29% Cooley
14% Eastman
28% Harman
29% Undecided

5
  Asked of 716 likely & actual Democratic primary voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.7%

(candidate names rotated)
California Democrats will also hold a primary for Attorney General. If the Democratic Primary for Attorney General were today, who would you vote for? Rocky Delgadillo? Kamala Harris? Chris Kelly? Ted Lieu? Pedro Nava? Mike Schmier? Or, Alberto Torrico?

13% Delgadillo
25% Harris
17% Kelly
7% Lieu
8% Nava
3% Schmier
5% Torrico
22% Undecided

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