Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #7189

Geography Surveyed: California
Data Collected: 10/15/2005 - 10/17/2005
Release Date: 10/18/2005 2:40 PM ET
Sponsors: KABC-TV Los Angeles, KGTV-TV San Diego, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KXTV-TV Sacramento

All 5 CA Ballot Propositions Still Leading ... But 3 Are Narrowing: In an election today, 10/18/05, 3 weeks to the 11/8/05 vote, California voters approve Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76 and Proposition 77, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll of 613 likely voters. Proposition 73, on parental notification for abortions on minors, passes by 22 points. In an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Proposition 73 passed by 20 points. Proposition 74, on teacher tenure, passes by 8 points today. 2 weeks ago, it passed by 11 points. Propositions 75, 76, and 77 have lost support: 2 weeks ago, Proposition 75 passed by 23 points, today by 14 points. 2 weeks ago, Proposition 76 passed by 22 points, today by 13 points (significant movement among men and among voters over 65). Two weeks ago, Proposition 77 passed by 23 points, today by 13 points. Republicans support all 5 Propositions by at least a 54-point margin. Democrats oppose Proposition 73 by 10 points and oppose propositions 74, 75, 76, and 77 by at least 28 points. Support for all 5 measures is strongly tied to approval of Governor Schwarzenegger. Those who approve of the job the Governor is doing, vote overwhelmingly "Yes" on all 5 Propositions. Those who disapprove of the job the Governor is doing oppose all 5 Propositions. Interest in ballot measures intensifies as the election approaches and ad dollars are spent to influence voters. These numbers can and should be expected to fluctuate, perhaps significantly.

Filtering: 1,200 California adults were interviewed 10/15/05 - 10/17/05. Of them, 963 were registered voters. Of them, 609 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 73. 613 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 74. 609 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 75. 594 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 76. 600 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 77. Crosstabs reflect "likely" voters. Voter interest in this election has increased: in an identical poll of 1,200 California adults 2 weeks ago, at most 529 voters were judged to be "likely" to vote on any question. No change was made to the way voters were filtered or the way questions were asked.

Pollster Caveat: When a Pollster conducts a telephone survey on a ballot measure, the Pollster must decide whether to read to the respondent the exact language that appears on the ballot, or a summary. SurveyUSA, for these California propositions, has chosen to read a summary. To compare what happens when the exact ballot language is read to respondents, see polling data produced by competing research organizations, such as The Field Poll (see also here) and by The Public Policy Institute of California. Quantifying the difference: On Proposition 76, the question that PPIC asks contains 105 words. The question that SurveyUSA asks contains 36 words. On 11/9/05, we will know which question wording produced a more accurate pre-election poll.

Introductory Question Text: On November 8th, California will hold a special election. We're going to ask about some of the Propositions on the ballot. ...

1
  Asked of 609 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

First, Proposition 73. Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before performing an abortion. If the special election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, would you vote Yes on Proposition 73? Or would you vote No?

60% Yes
38% No
2% Undecided

2
  Asked of 613 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

Next, Proposition 74. Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to dismiss teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 74? Or would you vote No?

53% Yes
45% No
1% Undecided

3
  Asked of 609 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

Next, Proposition 75. Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 75? Or would you vote no?

56% Yes
42% No
2% Undecided

4
  Asked of 594 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%

Next, Proposition 76. Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 76? Or would you vote no?

54% Yes
41% No
5% Undecided

5
  Asked of 600 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%

Finally, Proposition 77. Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts. District boundaries would be drawn by a panel of retired judges and approved by voters in a statewide election. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on 77? Or would you vote no?

54% Yes
41% No
5% Undecided

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  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
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  Statement of Methodology
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