Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #7189

Geography Surveyed: California
Data Collected: 10/15/2005 - 10/17/2005
Release Date: 10/18/2005 2:40 PM ET
Sponsors: KABC-TV Los Angeles, KGTV-TV San Diego, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KXTV-TV Sacramento

All 5 CA Ballot Propositions Still Leading ... But 3 Are Narrowing: In an election today, 10/18/05, 3 weeks to the 11/8/05 vote, California voters approve Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76 and Proposition 77, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll of 613 likely voters. Proposition 73, on parental notification for abortions on minors, passes by 22 points. In an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Proposition 73 passed by 20 points. Proposition 74, on teacher tenure, passes by 8 points today. 2 weeks ago, it passed by 11 points. Propositions 75, 76, and 77 have lost support: 2 weeks ago, Proposition 75 passed by 23 points, today by 14 points. 2 weeks ago, Proposition 76 passed by 22 points, today by 13 points (significant movement among men and among voters over 65). Two weeks ago, Proposition 77 passed by 23 points, today by 13 points. Republicans support all 5 Propositions by at least a 54-point margin. Democrats oppose Proposition 73 by 10 points and oppose propositions 74, 75, 76, and 77 by at least 28 points. Support for all 5 measures is strongly tied to approval of Governor Schwarzenegger. Those who approve of the job the Governor is doing, vote overwhelmingly "Yes" on all 5 Propositions. Those who disapprove of the job the Governor is doing oppose all 5 Propositions. Interest in ballot measures intensifies as the election approaches and ad dollars are spent to influence voters. These numbers can and should be expected to fluctuate, perhaps significantly.

Filtering: 1,200 California adults were interviewed 10/15/05 - 10/17/05. Of them, 963 were registered voters. Of them, 609 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 73. 613 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 74. 609 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 75. 594 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 76. 600 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 77. Crosstabs reflect "likely" voters. Voter interest in this election has increased: in an identical poll of 1,200 California adults 2 weeks ago, at most 529 voters were judged to be "likely" to vote on any question. No change was made to the way voters were filtered or the way questions were asked.

Pollster Caveat: When a Pollster conducts a telephone survey on a ballot measure, the Pollster must decide whether to read to the respondent the exact language that appears on the ballot, or a summary. SurveyUSA, for these California propositions, has chosen to read a summary. To compare what happens when the exact ballot language is read to respondents, see polling data produced by competing research organizations, such as The Field Poll (see also here) and by The Public Policy Institute of California. Quantifying the difference: On Proposition 76, the question that PPIC asks contains 105 words. The question that SurveyUSA asks contains 36 words. On 11/9/05, we will know which question wording produced a more accurate pre-election poll.

Introductory Question Text: On November 8th, California will hold a special election. We're going to ask about some of the Propositions on the ballot. ...