Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #8957

Geography Surveyed: OH 2nd Congressional District
Data Collected: 04/17/2006 - 04/19/2006
Release Date: 04/20/2006 9:40 AM ET
Sponsor: WCPO-TV Cincinnati

Analysis: In a Republican Primary in Ohio's 2nd Congressional District today, 4/20/06, incumbent Jean Schmidt defeats former Congressman Bob McEwen 56% to 33%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati. 8% prefer some other candidate. 3% are undecided. The Primary is in 12 days, on 5/2/06. McEwen wins 51% to 32% among Independents who choose to vote in the Republican primary, but they make up only 14% of the "likely voters" in SurveyUSA's voter turnout model. Schmidt won a special election on 8/2/2005 to fill this seat, which was vacated when Republican Rob Portman resigned on 4/29/05.

Filtering: 1,600 adults from Ohio's 2nd Congressional District were interviewed 4/17/06 - 4/19/06. Of them, 1,497 were Registered Voters. Of them, 863 were judged to be "likely voters". Of them, 543 chose to vote in the Republican Primary. Crosstabs reflect Likely Republican Primary Voters.

Competing Poll by Trailing Candidate: A competing poll, paid for by the McEwen campaign and conducted 04/05/06 to 04/06/06 by the polling firm Zogby International of Utica, New York, offers a different view of the election. Zogby shows the contest 35% Schmidt to 33% McEwen, with 29% undecided. A complete copy of the Zogby questionnaire is available here. Analysis by Zogby is available here.

  Asked of 543 Likely Republican Primary Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.3 percentage points.

If the Republican Primary were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Bob McEwen? Jean Schmidt? Or some other candidate?

33% McEwen
56% Schmidt
8% Other
3% Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
  © 2006 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations