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Missouri Senate Race Continues to Defy Stable Polling: SurveyUSA is working more than 120 separate contests this 2006 Mid-Term Election cycle, and many of them are cliffhangers, where candidates have for months been in tight fights -- but in consistent tight-fights. Other contests are blowouts, but at least they are consistently blowouts. Not one of the contests SurveyUSA is polling, has proven to be as unpredictable, as volatile, and frankly, as un-pollable, as the Missouri Senate race, where Democrat Claire McCaskill, Republican Jim Talent and Amendment 2 are intertwined in a dance of complexity that is hard to untangle. Where SurveyUSA ends up, after a weekend of polling, and 24 hours till polls close, is: Democrat challenger McCaskill 51%, Republican incumbent Talent 42%, and 7% of the vote going elsewhere.
Where? SurveyUSA has Libertarian Frank Gilmour at 4%. 3% undecided. Gilmore gets 13% of Independent voters. If the Republicans capture some of Gilmour's vote and all of the undecided vote, the contest is closer than these results indicate. If not, it's a key Democrat take-away. Of those voting for McCaskill, 75% are voting Yes on Amendment 2. Of those voting for Talent, 73% are voting No on Amendment 2.
Talent's support, in the campaign's final days, has weakened in greater Kansas City, where he once was tied, but finishes down 27 points. In greater St. Louis, McCaskill finishes 15 points ahead of McCaskill. 91% of Republicans vote Republican. 90% of Democrats vote Democrat.
Be Advised:
SurveyUSA will continue to poll this contest through Monday night 11/6, and will update these findings if warranted.
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