Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17315

Geography Surveyed: CA 11th CD RBS
Data Collected: 10/08/2010 - 10/11/2010
Release Date: 10/12/2010 7:10 AM ET
Sponsor: KPIX-TV San Francisco

CA-11: Will 3rd Time Be Charm For GOP's Harmer, As He Tries to Take House Seat from Incumbent Democrat McNerney? In an election for US House of Representatives in California's 11th congressional district today, 10/12/10, Republican David Harmer edges incumbent Democrat Jerry McNerney 48% to 42%, according to this latest exclusive KPIX-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Among men, Harmer leads by 20 points; among women, McNerney leads by 6 -- a 26-point gender gap. Harmer has a bubble of support among voters age 35 to 49; the candidates are effectively even among older voters. Harmer, who previously ran unsuccessfully for Congress in Utah's 2nd District in 1996 and in California's neighboring 10th Congressional District in a special election last year, takes 8 of 10 Republican votes. McNerney, who is seeking a third term, takes 8 of 10 Democratic votes. Independents break 5:3 for the Republican.


Filtering: SurveyUSA 750 registered voters from California's 11th Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/08/10 through 10/11/10 using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle. Of the registered voters, 624 were identified by SurveyUSA as having already cast a ballot, or to be likely to do so on or before election day. Early voting began 10/04/10.

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  Asked of 624 Likely & Actual Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Republican David Harmer? Democrat Jerry McNerney?

48% David Harmer (R)
42% Jerry McNerney (D)
4% David Christensen (AIP)
5% Undecided

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  Statement of Methodology
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