Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10431

Geography Surveyed: KY 3rd Congressional District
Data Collected: 10/16/2006 - 10/18/2006
Release Date: 10/19/2006 11:40 AM ET
Sponsor: WHAS-TV Louisville

Democrat Challenger Yarmuth Catches Republican Incumbent Northup In KY3: In an election in Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District today, 10/19/06, Democratic challenger John Yarmuth and Republican incumbent Anne Northup tie, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville. 19 days to the 11/7/06 election, it's Yarmuth 48%, Northup 47%, within the poll's 4.3 percent margin of sampling error. Since an identical SurveyUSA WHAS-TV poll released 20 days ago, on 9/29/06, Northup has lost 3 points, Yarmuth has gained 4 points, a 7-point swing to the Democrat. Independent voters, who had favored Northup by 18 points, now favor Yarmuth by 1 point, a 19-point swing. Northup gets 87% of Republican votes. Yarmuth gets 73% of Democrat votes. 21% of Democrats cross over to vote for the Republican Northup. Northup leads by 10 points among male voters; Yarmuth leads by 10 points among female voters. Northup's lead among white voters has declined from 18 points to 7 points. Yarmuth leads 3:1 among African American voters, who make up 14% of the electorate in SurveyUSA's turnout model. If more blacks vote, it benefits the Democrat. If fewer blacks vote, it benefits the Republican. In a race this closely contested, the ratio of white voters to black voters will in part determine the winner. Northup, who has was first elected to Congress in 1996, won in 2004 with 60% of the vote, but in her previous 4 elections she had not exceeded 53%. Democrats have targeted Kentucky's 3rd District as a possible pick-up in their push to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Abramson Re-Elected as Metro Mayor of Louisville: In an election today, 10/19/06, Louisville Metro Mayor Jerry Abramson is re-elected with 70% of the vote, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville. Republican Kelly Downard is a distant 2nd with 24%. There has been no significant movement since an identical SurveyUSA WHAS-TV poll 20 days ago. 83% of Democrats vote for Abramson. 50% of Republicans cross-over to vote for Abramson. Abramson wins all demographic groups. The election is in 19 days, on 11/7/06. Abramson was elected Mayor of the City of Louisville in 1985, 1989, and 1993. In 2002, after the City of Louisville merged with Jefferson County, he was elected to be the first Louisville Metro Mayor. SurveyUSA tracks the Job Approval rating of Abramson every 30 days for WHAS-TV. Abramson's approval is 72% today.

Filtering: 1,000 adults from Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District were interviewed 10/16/06 - 10/18/06. Of them, 862 were registered to vote. Of them, 536 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters. Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District comprises 97% of Louisville/Jefferson county. The results in the Mayoral poll are for the 3rd CD, not for the entire county. The 3% of Jefferson County residents who live outside of the 3rd Congressional District were not included in the interviews for this survey. Given the size of Abramson's lead, the missing 3% of Louisville residents will not affect the outcome of the Mayor election.