Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12839

Geography Surveyed: Kentucky
Data Collected: 10/20/2007 - 10/22/2007
Release Date: 10/23/2007 9:15 AM ET
Sponsors: WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WHAS-TV Louisville

Fletcher Ebbs, Beshear Flows in Kentucky Governor Back 'n Forth: Now 14 days to the election for Governor in the state of Kentucky. In a vote today, incumbent Republican Ernie Fletcher is unseated, Democratic challenger Steve Beshear is elected, and the Kentucky statehouse is a Democrat takeaway. Beshear gets 58% in today's track, the 6th SurveyUSA poll conducted since May. Fletcher gets 38%. Beshear leads by 20 points. Beshear has led by as many as 28 points, and as few as 16 points in SurveyUSA's most recent release. Seniors appear to have flirted with re-electing Fletcher in September, but now overwhelmingly vote to unseat the Governor in the campaign's final weeks. Kentucky's Moderates are dug-in for Beshear; no movement there in 5 months. Kentucky's Conservatives are dug-in for Fletcher; little movement there in 5 months. The two groups offset each other. Though Kentucky has few Liberals, they vote overwhelmingly for the Democrat, and are just enough to tip the election that way. Beshear leads in all regions of the state. In Eastern KY, Beshear leads by 22. In Western KY, Beshear leads by 12. In North Central KY, Beshear leads by 17. In greater Louisville, Beshear leads by 33. So much of the voting population has not budged, since May, that something truly de-stabilizing would need to happen in the next 13 days in order for the outcome to not be a foregone conclusion.

Filtering: 1,000 state of KY adults were interviewed 10/19/07 through 10/21/07. Of them, 908 were registered to vote. Of them, 572 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/07 statewide election, and were included in this survey. Party composition of likely voters in this tracking release of the tracking poll is: 39% Republican, 54% Democrat, 7% Independent.

  Asked of 572 likely voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.1 percentage points.

If the election for Governor were today, would you vote for the .... Republican ticket of Ernie Fletcher and Robbie Rudolph? Or, the Democratic ticket of Steve Beshear and Dan Mongiardo?

38% Fletcher / Rudolph (R)
58% Beshear / Mongiardo (D)
4% Undecided

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