Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12979

Geography Surveyed: New Mexico
Data Collected: 11/16/2007 - 11/18/2007
Release Date: 11/19/2007 8:35 AM ET
Sponsor: KOB-TV Albuquerque

NEW MEXICO PRIMARY TO FILL PETER DOMENICI'S OPEN U.S. SENATE SEAT

GOP Primary: Wilson Begins With Advantage Over Pearce -- In a Republican Primary for U.S. Senator from New Mexico today, 180 days until early voting begins, Republican Heather Wilson defeats Republican Steve Pearce, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KOB-TV. Wilson, U.S. Representative from NM's 1st Congressional District, gets 56% today. Pearce, U.S. Representative from NM's 2nd Congressional District, gets 37% today. Wilson's strength extends across demographic groups. She leads among women, men, whites, Hispanics, Conservatives and Moderates.

Democratic Primary: Udall Begins With Advantage Over Chavez -- In a Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator from New Mexico today, 180 days until early voting begins, Democrat Tom Udall defeats Democrat Martin Chavez, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KOB-TV. Udall, U.S. Representative from NM's 3rd Congressional District, gets 62% today. Chavez, Mayor of Albuquerque, gets 32% today. Chavez and Udall tie among New Mexico's Hispanic Democrats, but Udall leads by 54 points among white Democrats. Chavez runs strong among the youngest voters, but Udall leads by more than 2:1 among voters age 50 and older.

General Election: Democrat Udall Defeats Either Republican; Republican Pearce Defeats Chavez; Republican Wilson Ties Chavez -- In a hypothetical General Election for U.S. Senator from New Mexico today, 50 weeks to the vote, between the two most likely candidates for the Democratic nomination and the two most likely candidates for the Republican nomination, the political landscape lays out this way: Democrat Tom Udall defeats either Republican Pearce or Republican Wilson. Republican Pearce defeats Democrat Chavez. And Republican Wilson ties Chavez. Udall today defeats Pearce by 14. In KOB's last poll, on 10/08/07, Udall defeated Pearce by 18. Udall today defeats Wilson by 15 points. In KOB's last poll, Udall defeated Wilson by 18 points. Pearce today defeats Chavez by 10 points. In KOB's last poll, Pearce defeated Chavez by 21. Wilson and Chavez today tie, 47% for Wilson, 46% for Chavez. In KOB's last poll, Wilson led Chavez by 4. Udall gets 59% of the female vote against Pearce; Udall gets 61% of the female vote against Wilson. When Pearce is pitted against Udall, whites split. But Udall wins 2:1 among Hispanics. When Wilson is pitted against Udall, whites split. But Udall wins 7:3 among Hispanics. With Udall on the ballot, Moderates break 2:1 Democrat. With Chavez on the ballot against Pearce, Moderates split. With Chavez on the ballet against Wilson, Moderates break 5:4 Democrat.

Filtering: 2,100 New Mexico adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 11/16/07 through 11/18/07. Of them, 1,737 were registered to vote. Of them, 587 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the Democratic Primary, 503 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the Republican Primary. These likely Primary voters were included in the Primary Poll portion of the questionnaire. General Election hypothetical match-ups were asked of all registered voters. Republican U.S. Senator Pete Domenici announced 10/04/07 his intention not to seek a 7th term.