Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #15533

Geography Surveyed: City of Seattle
Data Collected: 07/13/2009 - 07/15/2009
Release Date: 07/16/2009 10:55 AM ET
Sponsor: KING-TV Seattle

In Crowded Race for Seattle Mayor, Nickels Well-Positioned to Advance ... But Who Else? In a primary for Seattle Mayor today, 07/16/2009, one month until votes are counted, incumbent mayor Greg Nickels advances to the November general election, according to this latest exclusive KING-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA -- but the identity of his November opponent remains unclear, with four candidates within six points of each other.

Today, Nickels takes 26% of the vote, up 2 points from an identical SurveyUSA poll released three weeks ago.
City Council member Jan Drago takes 15%, down 1 point.
Former Seattle Sonic James Donaldson takes 11% today, down from 14%.
Businessman Joe Mallahan takes 8%, up 1 point.
Community organizer Mike McGinn also takes 8%, unchanged from the previous poll.

Three other candidates combine to take 6% of the vote. 1 of 4 likely voters are undecided today, 13 days before ballots begin to be mailed in the all-mail primary.

Nickels, who is seeking a third term, leads among both men and women, among voters of all age groups, and among those who identify themselves as Democrats and as Republicans. The office is non-partisan, though Nickels is a member of the Democratic Party. Among Independents, the nominal lead in the race has changed three times: Nickels led by 3 points six weeks ago; Donaldson led by 3 points three weeks ago; today, Drago leads by 2 points among independents.

Opposition Begins Building On Bag Bill: Referendum 1, which would add a 20-cent fee to disposable shopping bags, is defeated in a vote today, with 51% of likely voters certain to vote "No" and 42% certain to vote yes. Three weeks ago, voters were split. Today, liberals, Democrats, younger voters, and those who say they will vote for Nickels in the primary support the referendum; those with incomes greater than $50k and those with college educations are split; all others oppose. In general, opposition to ballot measures increases as an election approaches, regardless of what the ballot measure is about, regardless of the geography affected.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,050 adults from the city of Seattle 07/13/09 through 07/15/09. Of them, 943 identified themselves as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 507 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the primary. The election will be conducted entirely by mail; ballots begin to be mailed on July 29. The last day to vote is 08/18/09. The top two candidates emerging from the primary will face each other in the 11/03/09 general election.

  Asked of 507 Likely voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.4 percentage points.

If the primary election for Seattle Mayor were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Greg Nickels? Jan Drago? James Donaldson? Joe Mallahan? Kwame Wyking Garrett? Norman Zadok Sigler? Mike McGinn? Or, Elizabeth Campbell?

26% Nickels
14% Drago
11% Donaldson
8% Mallahan
2% Garrett
0% Sigler
8% McGinn
4% Campbell
25% Undecided

  Asked of 507 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.4 percentage points.

Also on the ballot is Referendum 1, which would add a 20 cent fee on disposable shopping bags. On Referendum 1, , are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Voters who were not certain were asked: At this hour, on Referendum 1, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?}

42% Yes
51% No
7% Not Certain

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  Statement of Methodology
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