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Analysis: In a hypothetical election for Governor of Arkansas today, 1/24/06, Democrat Mike Beebe and Republican Asa Hutchinson are tied, but in a hypothetical election between Republican Hutchinson and Democrat Bill Halter, Hutchinson wins decisively, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 506 Registered state of Arkansas voters conducted exclusively for KTHV-TV. The election is in November 2006. The Governor's seat is open. Today, in a Beebe-Hutchinson matchup, Beebe gets 46%, Hutchinson 45%. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll 7 weeks ago, Beebe has lost 3 points and Hutchinson has gained 1 point. Beebe's lead has gone from 5 points to a statistically insignificant 1 point. Beebe carries 79% of Arkansas Democrats. Hutchinson carries 86% of Arkansas Republicans. Independents go 5:4 for Hutchinson. In a Hutchinson-Halter matchup, Hutchinson gets 52%, Halter 35%. 7 weeks ago, Hutchinson led Halter by 22 points; he now leads Halter by 17. In this matchup, Hutchinson carries 88% of Arkansas Republicans. Halter gets only 59% of Arkansas Democrats. 24% of Democrats cross over and vote for Hutchinson. Independents prefer Hutchinson to Halter 54% to 32%. Incumbent Republican Mike Huckabee is term limited. |