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Wait A Minute, Reynolds Not Dead Yet; Back Atop Davis In NY26: In an election in New York's uniqely volatile 26th Congressional District today, 10/19/06, Republican incumbent Tom Reynolds comes back off the mat to now recapture a tiny lead against Democratic challenger Jack Davis 49% to 46%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WGRZ-TV Buffalo. Since an identical SurveyUSA WGRZ-TV poll 2 weeks ago, Reynolds has gained 4 points and Davis has lost 4 points. This 8 point poll-on-poll movement is not remarkable in and of itself. However, in the context of two other competing polls, released after SurveyUSA's 10/5/06 poll, one of which showed Reynolds trailing by 15 points, and the other of which showed Reynolds trailing by 16 points, today's SurveyUSA results are unexpected, and to a certain extent, breathtaking. Reynolds is a figure in the Mark Foley story, and aired TV commercials to apologize to his constituents. Davis has received national attention as a novel "anti-candidate" and, for example, is prominently and colorfully featured in today's Washington Post.
What's Going On? Looking only at SurveyUSA polling, Davis' lead among Independent voters has declined from 24 points on 10/5 to 13 points today. Davis's lead among Democrats has declined from 61 points to 50 points. Reynolds's lead among Republicans has increased from 41 to 45 points. The composition of likely voters has not materially changed: 47% were Republican on 10/5, 48% are Republican today. 32% of likely voters were Democrat on 10/5, 31% are Democrat today. Reynolds today leads among voters under age 35. The candidates are even among other age groups. Reynolds is helped by lower-income and middle-income voters. Among voters earning more than $80K/year, Reynolds is down. Among voters earning less than $80K/year, Reynolds is up. Among those who have attended graduate school, Reynolds is down. But among all other education levels, Reynolds is up. While this contest is a rematch of the 2004 election, when Reynolds, who was first elected to Congress in 1998, defeated Davis 56% to 44%, little else is the same. Reynolds is on the national stage, and the contest has national implications.
One Mitigating Caution: Some portions of the 26th District were without telephone service during the interviewing period for this poll, following a snow storm on 10/12/06. 35% of Likely Voters came from Erie County in the 10/5 survey; 29% of Likely Voters came from Erie County in the 10/19 survey. Davis leads in Erie County by 11 points in the 10/19 survey and by 12 points in the 10/5 survey. SurveyUSA will conduct another poll in the district once power is completely restored.
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