Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12102

Geography Surveyed: New Hampshire
Data Collected: 05/04/2007 - 05/06/2007
Release Date: 05/07/2007 10:05 AM ET
Sponsor: WBZ-TV Boston

Suddenly, New Hampshire Likes What It Sees in Romney: In the first poll of New Hampshire Republican Primary voters since the GOP debate at the Reagan Library last week, Mitt Romney, former Governor of neighboring Massachusetts, jumps into a breathtaking lead over Rudolph Giuliani and John McCain, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely NH Republican Primary voters conducted exclusively for WBZ-TV Boston. Romney gets 32% today, measurably better than Giuliani at 23% and McCain at 22%, who tie for 2nd place. Actor Fred Thompson, who was not included in previous SurveyUSA polling of New Hampshire GOP Primary voters, but who is included in these results, finishes 4th, at 11%. Who is Up? Who is Down? Compared to a NH SurveyUSA WBZ-TV poll released 1/29/07, Giuliani and McCain have each lost 10 points. The two had been tied for first, 33% then for Giuliani, 32% then for McCain. Romney is up 11 points, from 21% then to 32% now. That's a 21-point swing to Romney among likely GOP Primary voters. What's changed? In January, Romney got 16% among those in favor of stem-cell research. Today Romney gets 31% among those in favor of stem-cell research. Romney's debate answer on this question -- so scholarly that moderator Chris Matthews momentarily thought Romney had mis-heard the question -- appears to have resonated. But at the same time, Romney's stem-cell answer has not cost Romney support among pro-life voters. Romney gets 38% among pro-life voters today, 19 points higher than McCain, 22 points higher than Giuliani and 26 points higher than Thompson, who are clustered far back. Among the 60% of NH Primary voters who say they are Conservative, Romney gets 35% today, 15 points better than McCain, 18 points better than Giuliani, 21 points better than Thompson. Giuliani's support skews young. McCain's support skews old. Romney's support is even across all age groups. Because SurveyUSA's questionnaire in January did not explicitly name Thompson, SurveyUSA does not here produce tracking graphs, since an exact, apples-to-apples track, is not possible. However, you may access the 1/29/07 New Hampshire data here.

Nothing New on Democratic Side; Hillary was at 40%, Remains at 40%, Far Ahead: In a Democratic Primary for President of the United States in New Hampshire today, 5/7/07, Hillary Clinton continues to dominate rivals Barack Obama and John Edwards, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely Democratic Primary voters, conducted exclusively for WBZ-TV Boston. Clinton gets 40% today, unchanged from the 40% she received in an identical SurveyUSA WBZ-TV poll released 1/29/07. Obama gets 24% today, down a statistically insignificnant 1 point from January. John Edwards gets 22% today, down a statistically insignificant 1 point from January. Hillary today runs 14 points stronger among females than males. In January, she ran 10 points stronger among females than males.

Filtering: 2,000 state of New Hampshire adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 05/04/07 through 05/06/07. All interviews were conducted after the 04/26/07 Democratic SC debate and the 05/03/07 Republican CA debate. Of the 2,000 NH adults, 1,756 were registered to vote. Of them, 551 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Republican NH Primary, 589 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Democratic NH Primary, and were included in this survey. Composition of the NH Republican Primary electorate today is 60% Conservative, 32% Moderate, 6% Liberal. Composition of the NH Democratic Primary electorate today is 9% Conservative, 48% Moderate and 39% Liberal. Caution: In past presidential elections, the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire Primary wielded extraordinary influence on all that came after it. Whether that is true in 2008 is unknowable, given the fluid primary schedule and the determination of many of the 49 other states not to be rendered irrelevant in the nominating process. For perspective, New Hampshire has 4 Electoral College votes. California has 55 Electoral College votes. SurveyUSA will release a poll in California today, 05/07/07, that shows Romney running 3rd among likely CA Republican Primary voters, 22 points behind Giuliani. A win in New Hampshire for any candidate in 2008 may or may not do for the winner what a strong New Hampshire showing has done in previous presidential cycles.