Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10537

Geography Surveyed: CA 50th CD
Data Collected: 10/13/2006 - 10/15/2006
Release Date: 10/16/2006 2:20 PM ET
Sponsor: KGTV-TV San Diego

Reverse Course -- Busby Gaining on Bilbray, CA 50 Seat No Longer 'Safe' for GOP: In an election in California's 50th Congressional District today, 10/16/06, Republican incumbent Brian Bilbray is narrowly ahead of Democrat challenger Francine Busby, 49% to 46%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV San Diego. Since a SurveyUSA KGTV-TV poll released 9/13/06, Bilbray has lost 5 points and Busby has gained 6 points. Bilbray had led by 14 points, now leads by 3. Bilbray gets 85% of Republican votes. Busby gets 87% of Democrat votes. These numbers are similar to last month's. Most of the shrinkage in Bilbray's advantage is because the Republican edge in the composition of CA50 likely voters has decreased from 14 points to 6 points. See the supplemental analysis box below. Among Independents, Busby has gone from 2 points behind to 9 points ahead. This is the 3rd election between Bilbray and Busby this year. Busby lost to Republican "Duke" Cunningham by 58% to 37% in 2004, but finished first in a Special election 4/11/06 to replace Cunningham, who had resigned 11/28/05. Since Busby fell short of a majority, there was a runoff 6/6/06, which Bilbray won by 4 points. Busby got 44% of the vote in the special election, 45% in the runoff, and gets 46% in today's poll. The election is in 22 days, on 11/7/06.

Analysis Common To All SurveyUSA Congressional Polls Released 10/16/06: Today, 10/16/06, SurveyUSA releases election polls in 4 Congressional Districts: Arizona 5, California 50, Minnesota 2, and New Mexico 1. In all four of these districts, we observe significant movement away from the Republican incumbent and towards the Democratic challenger, with the Republican's lead decreasing by between 9 and 13 points. Furthermore, all four districts show a shift in the party distribution of likely voters, with the Republican-Democrat difference changing towards Democrats by between 4 and 11 points. Two possible explanations for this shift are: 1) Republicans are becoming less likely to vote, and Democrats are becoming more likely to vote; 2) Some "weak Republicans" are now identifying themselves as Independent, while some left-leaning Independents are now identifying themselves as Democrats. It is unclear at this time which of these explanations is more significant, or how persistent the shift will be. But the consistency of the pattern suggests that the movement in these 4 contests may be driven by a nationwide trend affecting all House races, rather than by factors specific to the individual districts.

Filtering: 800 Registered Voters from California's 50th Congressional district, chosen using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International, were interviewed 10/13/06 - 10/15/06. Of them, 581 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.