Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12911

Geography Surveyed: California
Data Collected: 11/02/2007 - 11/04/2007
Release Date: 11/05/2007 12:00 PM ET
Sponsors: KABC-TV Los Angeles, KFSN-TV Fresno, KGTV-TV San Diego, KPIX-TV San Francisco

In California, Giuliani Down 5 Points, Thompson Also Down 5 Points, as GOP Fight Heats Up: In a Republican Primary in California today, 11/05/07, 3 months to the vote, Rudolph Giuliani still leads, but the contest is more interesting than it has been. Fred Thompson, who had tied Giuliani for the lead in SurveyUSA's September tracking poll, has fallen now to 4th place, slightly behind John McCain and Mitt Romney, who are effectively tied now for 2nd. The exact standings today are: Giuliani 34%, down from 39% last month, and exactly where Giuliani was six months ago, in May. McCain 16%, back in 2nd place for the first time in 3 months. Romney 15%, his highest showing. Thompson 13%, half of the 26% Thompson got in September, 5 points less than the 18% Thompson got in October. Mike Huckabee, listed by name for the first time this month, as opposed to grouped with "other Republican," is at 8%. Among California Conservatives, Thompson started at 13% in May, went to 31% in September, and is back at 14% today, behind Romney and McCain at 16%. Thompson gets 18% among those who watch Law And Order regularly, compared to 12% among those who watch Law And Order rarely.

Drexel Democrat Debate Allows Obama To Recover Some Ground Against Hillary, But He's Still down 28 Points: The Democratic debate on 10/30/07, in which some saw a possible crack in Hillary Clinton's armor, results in Clinton's staggering 37-point lead last month shrinking to 28 points today, with Obama up 5 points from 20% to 25%, and Clinton down 4 points, from 57% to 53%. Edwards, at 13%, is unchanged month-on-month, steady in 3rd place. Significantly: Clinton shows more strength than ever among male voters, now up 2:1 over Obama.

Early Support for Changing CA law to Apportion Electoral Votes: 47% of California registered voters today conceptually support apportioning California's electoral college votes, so the winner does not take all. 34% prefer the existing "winner take all" system. SurveyUSA question text is generic, and does not attempt to precisely describe "California Electoral Vote Initiative," which may be put before CA voters in 2008. Results of this question can be interpreted as an early read on baseline satisfaction and dissatisfaction with the existing Electoral College system, but not necessarily as support for a specific ballot measure. The results do not attempt to forecast what would happen were the Electoral Vote Initiative put before voters today. The results do pick-up an underlying dissatisfaction with the Electoral College system that extends across demographic groups.

Filtering: 2,100 California adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 11/02/07 through 11/04/07. Of them, 1,772 were registered to vote. Of them, 513 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the Republican Primary, and 722 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the Democratic Primary, and were included in the Primary portion of this survey. All 1,772 registered voters were asked about Electoral College reform.

  Asked of 513 likely republican primary voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.4 percentage points.

If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for ...(names rotated) Rudy Giuliani? Mike Huckabee? John McCain? Mitt Romney? Fred Thompson? Or some other Republican?

34% Giuliani
8% Huckabee
16% McCain
15% Romney
13% Thompson
8% Other
6% Undecided

  Asked of 722 likely democratic primary voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.7 percentage points.

If the Democratic Primary were today, would you vote for... Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? John Edwards? Or some other Democrat?

53% Clinton
25% Obama
13% Edwards
6% Other
3% Undecided

  Asked of 1772 registered voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 2.4 percentage points.

Should California's 55 electoral college votes continue to all go to the winner? Should the system be changed so that California's Electoral College votes are divided among the candidates for president based on the percent of the popular vote each receives? Or, are you not sure?

34% All Go To The Winner
47% Divided Among The Candidates
19% Not Sure

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
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