How Does Republican US Senator Norm Coleman Look For Re-Election? You Can Argue It Both Ways:
In an election for United States Senator from Minnesota today, 7/30/07, 463 days to the vote, incumbent Republican Norm Coleman defeats any one of three possible Democratic challengers in head-to-head matchups, according to SurveyUSA election polls conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis, WDIO-TV Duluth and KAAL-TV Rochester.
Coleman defeats celebrity Al Franken today by 7 points. Coleman defeats attorney Mike Ciresi today by 6 points, and Coleman defeats activist Jim Cohen today by 12 points. But, there are "buts":
But #1: Coleman's support does not top 49% in any matchup. Some see an incumbent at less than 50% as significant.
But #2: In an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 5 months ago, Coleman defeated Franken by 22 points. Today, Coleman defeats Franken by 7. Compared to February, Coleman is down 8, Franken is up 7.
But #3: In an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 5 months ago, Coleman defeated Ciresi by 23 points. Today, Coleman defeats Ciresi by 6 points. Compared to February, Coleman is down 9 points, Ciresi is up 8.
But #4: Coleman's Job Approval, as measured monthly by SurveyUSA, has fallen into Minus territory for the first time in 27 consecutive months of tracking. Since May 2005, Coleman's approval numbers have been above 50% in 17 of 27 months - and in all 26 previous months, the Approval numbers were higher than the Disapproval numbers. Not now. Today's Coleman's Net Job Approval is Minus 5. In December 2005, it was Plus 22, a 27-point swing. As a point of reference, President George W. Bush today in Minnesota is at Minus 39.
What happened between SurveyUSA's February poll on the U.S. Senate race and SurveyUSA's July poll? Big changes among women, among Independents and among voters in the Twin Cities. Among greater Minneapolis St Paul voters, against Franken, Coleman led by 29 in February, trails by 5 in July, a 34-point swing to the Democrat. Among greater Minneapolis St. Paul voters, against Ciresi, Coleman led by 29 in February, trails by 1 in July, a 30-point swing to the Democrat. Among women, against Franken, Coleman led by 9 in February, trails by 8 in July, a 17-point swing to the Democrat. Among women, against Ciresi, Coleman led by 6 in February, trails by 12 in July, an 18-point swing to the Democrat. Among Independents, against Franken, Coleman led by 25, now leads by 6. Among Independents, against Ciresi, Coleman led by 25, now leads by 5.
In February, SurveyUSA did not poll a head-to-head contest between Coleman and Cohen. In July data, Coleman defeats Cohen by 12, not because Coleman's support rises, but because more voters choose "undecided" than they do in Coleman matchups against Franken and Ciresi.
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