Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10417

Geography Surveyed: Arizona
Data Collected: 10/14/2006 - 10/16/2006
Release Date: 10/17/2006 2:35 PM ET
Sponsor: KPNX-TV Phoenix

Republican Kyl Still 5 Atop Democrat Pederson For AZ Senate Seat: In an election for U.S. Senator in Arizona today, 10/17/06, incumbent Republican Jon Kyl edges Democrat challenger Jim Pederson, 48% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KPNX-TV Phoenix. These percentages are unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll released 4 weeks ago, on 9/19/06. Kyl gets 85% of Republican votes. Pederson gets 78% of Democrat votes. Independents break 3:2 for Pederson. Kyl leads by 12 points among White voters. Pederson leads by 28 points among Hispanic voters, who make up 16% of the Arizona electorate in SurveyUSA's turnout model. Of those who approve of President Bush's performance in office, 91% prefer Kyl. Of those who disapprove of President Bush's performance, 73% pick Pedersen. President Bush's job approval among likely voters in Arizona is 41%. Kyl was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1994. A Democrat pick-up here would greatly improve the Democrats' chances of retaking control of the U.S. Senate next year. But Pederson has gained no ground during a time when other Democrats, in other contests, have. The election is in 3 weeks, on 11/7/06.

Democrat Napolitano Well Positioned for Re-Election as AZ Governor: In an election for Governor of Arizona today, 10/17/06, incumbent Democrat Janet Napolitano defeats Republican challenger Len Munsil, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KPNX-TV Phoenix. Today, 3 weeks to the 11/7/06 election, Napolitano leads by 19 points, 56% to 37%. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago, on 9/19/06, Munsil has lost 3 points. Napolitano is unchanged at 56%. Napolitano is up by 30 points among women and by 10 points among men. 90% of Democrats and 63% of Independents support Napolitano. 24% of Republicans cross over to vote for the Democrat. Munsil leads 3:1 among Arizona's Conservatives, who make up 35% of the electorate. But Napolitano's 44-point lead among Moderates and 89-point lead among Liberals is too much for Munsil to overcome. Napolitano leads by 13 points among whites and by 46 points among Hispanics. Napolitano was first elected Governor in 2002.

Filtering: 900 Arizona adults were interviewed 9/16/06 - 9/18/06. Of them, 703 were registered to vote. Of them, 474 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

  Asked of 474 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.6 percentage points.

If the election for Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Len Munsil? Democrat Janet Napolitano? Or Libertarian Barry Hess?

37% Munsil (R)
56% Napolitano (D)
5% Hess (L)
2% Undecided

  Asked of 474 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.6 percentage points.

Arizona voters will also elect a United States Senator. In an election today, who would you vote for? Republican Jon Kyl? Democrat Jim Pederson? Libertarian Richard Mack? Or some other candidate?

48% Kyl (R)
43% Pederson (D)
4% Mack (L)
6% Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
  © 2006 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations