Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13218

Geography Surveyed: Florida
Data Collected: 01/20/2008
Release Date: 01/21/2008 10:40 AM ET
Sponsors: WFLA-TV Tampa, WKRG-TV Mobile-Pensacola

1ST LOOK AT FLORIDA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY FOLLOWING NV CAUCUS -- Clinton Remains 33 Points Atop Obama: In a FL Democratic Primary today, 01/21/08, 8 days till voting ends, Hillary Clinton maintains an overwhelming advantage over Barack Obama, 56% to 23%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa and WKRG-TV Mobile. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 1 week ago, before the Nevada Caucus on 01/19/08, Clinton is unchanged, Obama is unchanged, and Edwards is down 2 points, from 14% then to 12% now. Among whites, Clinton leads 4:1 over Obama and Edwards, who tie for 2nd.

Caveat: The national Democratic Party has penalized the state of Florida Democratic Party for scheduling its Primary before 02/05/08. As a result, delegates "won" on 01/29/08 will not be seated at the Democratic Convention this summer, the national Party says. Democratic candidates have agreed not to campaign in Florida. It is unknowable how, whether, or to what extent the fact that the Florida Democratic Primary is "unsanctioned" will influence turnout.

Filtering / Early Voting: 2,050 Florida adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 01/20/08. Of them, 1,781 were registered to vote. Of them, 517 had already voted in early voting, or were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Primary Day. Among those who have already voted, Clinton has 72%, Obama has 17%. In 5 days, on 01/26/08, Democrats will have a Primary in South Carolina. Obama is expected to run strong in South Carolina; he is leading in SurveyUSA polling. It is unclear to what extent an Obama win in South Carolina might influence what happens in Florida 3 days later. It is unclear what percentage of Democrats will have already voted in Florida before the results of the South Carolina Primary are known.