Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10280

Geography Surveyed: Arizona
Data Collected: 09/16/2006 - 09/18/2006
Release Date: 09/19/2006 1:50 PM ET
Sponsor: KPNX-TV Phoenix

Democrat Napolitano Well Positioned for Re-Election as AZ Governor: In an election for Governor of Arizona today, 9/19/06, incumbent Democrat Janet Napolitano defeats Republican challenger Len Munsil, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KPNX-TV Phoenix. Today, 7 weeks to the 11/7/06 election, Napolitano leads by 16 points, 56% to 40%. Napolitano is up by 27 points among women and by 5 points among men. 91% of Democrats and 70% of Independents support Napolitano. 23% of Republicans cross over to vote for the Democrat. Munsil leads 3:1 among Arizona's Conservatives, who make up 35% of the electorate. But Napolitano's 50-point lead among Moderates and 69-point lead among Liberals is too much for Munsil to overcome. Napolitano is up by 19 points in Metro Phoenix, by 12 points in the Tucson area, and by 10 points in the rest of AZ. Munsil does best among the least educated voters. Napolitano does best among the most educated voters.

Republican Kyl 5 Atop Democrat Pederson For AZ Senate Seat: In an election for U.S. Senator in Arizona today, 9/19/06, incumbent Republican Jon Kyl edges Democrat challenger Jim Pederson, 48% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KPNX-TV Phoenix. Kyl gets 81% of Republican votes. Pederson gets 79% of Democrat votes. Independents break 5:3 for Pederson. Kyl leads by 13 points among White voters. Pederson leads by 16 points among Hispanic voters, who make up 16% of the Arizona electorate in SurveyUSA's turnout model. Pederson leads by 2 points in the Metro Phoenix area. Kyl leads by 16 points in the Tucson area and by 18 points in the rest of AZ. Of those who approve of President Bush's performance in office, 83% prefer Kyl. Of those who disapprove of President Bush's performance, 70% pick Pedersen. President Bush's job approval among likely voters in Arizona is 44%. Kyl was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1994. A Democrat pick-up here would greatly improve the Democrats' chances of retaking control of the U.S. Senate next year.

Filtering: 900 Arizona adults were interviewed 9/16/06 - 9/18/06. Of them, 701 were registered to vote. Of them, 472 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters. SurveyUSA's previous 2006 polling on the Arizona Senate contest, released 07/17/06, was of Registered Voters.

1
  Asked of 472 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.6%

If the election for Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Len Munsil? Democrat Janet Napolitano? Or Libertarian Barry Hess?

40% Munsil (R)
56% Napolitano (D)
3% Hess (L)
2% Undecided

2
  Asked of 472 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.6%

Arizona voters will also elect a United States Senator. In an election today, who would you vote for? Republican Jon Kyl? Democrat Jim Pederson? Libertarian Richard Mack? Or some other candidate?

48% Kyl (R)
43% Pederson (D)
2% Mack (L)
1% Other
7% Undecided

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  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
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  Statement of Methodology
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