Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12886

Geography Surveyed: Sound Transit District
Data Collected: 10/28/2007 - 10/30/2007
Release Date: 10/31/2007 12:20 PM ET
Sponsor: KING-TV Seattle

Transportation District Voters Remain Split on Proposition 1; Could Go Either Way: 6 days till the voting window ends, transportation district voters are divided on Proposition 1, the Roads and Transit Measure, according to a SurveyUSA poll of the approximate transportation districts, conducted exclusively for KING-TV. In a survey that includes those who have already voted and those who are certain to vote before Election Day, 42% are certain to vote Yes, 43% are certain to vote No, and 15% are not yet certain how they will vote. These numbers are stable, when compared with a SurveyUSA KING5 tracking poll released 10/23/07. Then, the measure was effectively tied. Now, the measure is effectively tied. Effectively, the measure is tied in King County, tied in Snohomish County and tied in Pierce County. Younger voters favor Proposition 1. Older voters oppose. If turnout is younger than SurveyUSA here forecasts, the measure will pass. Younger voters are the least reliable voters, historically. If turnout is significantly older than SurveyUSA here forecasts, the measure will fail. Republicans and Independents oppose the measure. Democrats support. Moderates split. Conservatives oppose by more than 2:1.

Filtering: 1,000 adults who reside in the transportation district portions of King, Pierce and Snohomish counties were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/28/07 through 10/30/07. Of them, 840 were registered to vote. Of the 840 registered, 180 told SurveyUSA they had already voted on Proposition 1. In total, 616 actual and likely voters were included in the survey, 29% of whom had already voted. Those respondents who have not yet cast ballots, and who told SurveyUSA they were "Not Certain" how they would vote on a particular ballot measure, were then asked if they "lean toward Yes," "lean toward No," or do not lean. Two separate results are reported here. One: without the leaners (the "Not Certain" response is accepted without probing). Two: with the leaners (the "Not Certain" voters who "lean Yes "are combined with the "Certain Yes" votes, and the Not Certain voters who "Lean No" are combined with the "Certain No" votes. The Not Certain voters who do "Not Lean" continue to be reported as Not Certain. Geographic Composition: 61% of likely voters are from King County. 20% of likely voters are from Pierce County. 19% of likely voters are from Snohomish County.