Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10384

Geography Surveyed: NY 26th Congressional District
Data Collected: 10/02/2006 - 10/04/2006
Release Date: 10/05/2006 10:40 AM ET
Sponsor: WGRZ-TV Buffalo

Momentum in NY 26 Shifts to Democrat Challenger Davis As Republican Incumbent Reynolds Gets Tangled In Page Probe: In an election in New York's 26th Congressional District today, 10/5/06, Democratic challenger Jack Davis edges Republican incumbent Tom Reynolds 50% to 45%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WGRZ-TV Buffalo. Compared with a SurveyUSA poll released on 9/28/06, which included Green party candidate Christine Murphy (who was then on the ballot, but who no longer is), Davis has gained 7 points, from 43% to 50%. Reynolds is unchanged at 45%. Davis had trailed by 2, now leads by 5, a 7-point swing. Murphy, who received 8% in SurveyUSA's poll last week, was disqualified by the New York State Board of Elections on 9/26/06. It is not clear how much of the swing is due to Murphy's removal and how much is due to the involvement of Reynolds in the events surrounding former Representative Mark Foley (see timeline below). 79% of Democrats vote for the Democrat Davis. 68% of Republicans vote for the Republican Reynolds. 27% of Republicans cross-over to vote for the Democrat. Last week, 20% of Independents voted for the Green candidate. Those votes now go disproportionately to the Democrat. Independents today break 5:3 for Davis. The contest is tied among men. Davis leads by 9 among women. Davis leads among voters age 50+. Reynolds leads among voters under age 50. This contest is a rematch of the 2004 election, when Reynolds, who was first elected to Congress in 1998, defeated Davis 56% to 44%. The election is in 33 days, on 11/7/06.

Filtering: 800 Registered Voters from New York's 26th Congressional District, chosen using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International, were interviewed 10/2/06 - 10/4/06. Of them, 482 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

Timeline: 09/25/06 through 09/27/06: SurveyUSA conducts poll of 491 Likely Voters from NY26 that shows: Reynolds 45%, Davis 43%, Green Christine Murphy 8%. 09/26/06: New York State Board of Elections rules that Christine Murphy will not be on ballot. 09/28/06: News surfaces of inappropriate Emails from Representative Mark Foley (R-FL) to Congressional pages. 09/29/06: News of inappropriate Instant Messages from Foley surfaces; Foley resigns; Reynolds's role in House's handling of Foley matter questioned. 10/02/06: Reynolds holds press conference with children, defends handling of Foley matter. 10/04/06: Reynolds chief of staff Kirk Fordham resigns. Late in the day, as interviews for the 3rd day of this release were being conducted, Fordham defends Reynolds, and criticizes Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert (R-IL).

Pollster Caveat: Results of this poll will be influenced by news revelations over the coming four weeks and should not be considered stable or predictive.