Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10414

Geography Surveyed: State of Washington
Data Collected: 10/13/2006 - 10/15/2006
Release Date: 10/16/2006 1:25 PM ET
Sponsor: KING-TV Seattle

McGavick Slices Into Cantwell Lead in WA Senate Fight: In an election today for U.S. Senator from the state of Washington, Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell defeats Republican challenger Mike McGavick, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 848 likely state of WA voters conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle. Today, it's Cantwell 51%, McGavick 43%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 9/26/06, Cantwell is down 3 points, McGavick is up 1 point. Cantwell had led by 12, now leads by 8. Among Independents, Cantwell had led by 16, now leads by 1, a 15-point swing to McGavick. Among Suburban voters, Cantwell had led by 11, now trails by 4, a 15-point swing to McGavick. The last day to vote is 11/7/06.

WA Initiative 920 Now Too-Close-To-Call; Majority Still Do Not Know What 920 Does: Today, 10/16/06, most WA voters are not certain how they will vote on Iniative 920. But: when likely voters are read the full language that appears on the ballot, the outcome is close enough to be considered tied, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle. Respondents were divided into 2 groups; each group heard the ballot question read differently. When voters are asked about 920, but are not read the full text, 68% say they are not certain how they will vote. Of those who are certain how they will vote on 920, the measure fails by more than 2:1. By contrast, when the actual ballot language is read to voters, 45% today say they will vote Yes, 40% say they will vote No. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 10/3/06, Yes is down 3 points, No is up 6 points. 920 had been favored by 14 points, now is favored by 5 points. No conclusions regarding 920 can be drawn about what will happen on Election Day.

WA Initiative 933 Now Too-Close-To-Call; Half Do Not Know What 933 Does: Today, 10/16/06, most WA voters are not certain how they will vote on Iniative 933. But: when likely voters are read the full language that appears on the ballot, the outcome is close enough to be considered tied, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle. Respondents were divided into 2 groups; each group heard the ballot question read differently. When voters are asked about 933, but are not read the full text, half say they are not certain how they will vote. Of those who are certain how they will vote on 933, the measure fails by 2:1. By contrast, when the actual ballot language is read to voters, 43% today say they will vote Yes, 40% say they will vote No. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 10/3/06, Yes is down 8 points, No is up 10 points. 933 had been favored by 23 points among likely voters who were read the entire ballot text, now is favored by 3 points, a move of 20-points. No conclusions can be drawn regarding 933 about what will happen on Election Day.

No Movement in WA Supreme Court Contest; Too-Close-To-Call With 41% Undecided: In an Election for the Supreme Court of the state of WA today, 10/16/06, Stephen Johnson and Susan Owens are effectively tied, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle. Owens gets 31% today, Johnson gets 29%, both results identical to a SurveyUSA poll releaed 10/3/06. With 41% of Likely Voters undecided today, any outcome is possible.

Purpose of This Parallel Test: In a study presented by SurveyUSA to the American Association for Public Opinion Research, SurveyUSA found that all pollsters have a difficult time forecasting the outcome of a ballot measure. When 446 statewide polls from 104 separate polling organizations were analyzed, the average error on a statewide contest (such as a contest for Governor or U.S. Senator) was 4.6 percentage points, for all pollsters. But: the average pollster error on a ballot measure was twice that, 9.2 percentage points, for all pollsters. Telephone pollsters struggle with ballot measures, since words are read into the ear of a poll respondent, but voters see words printed on a printed or electronic ballot. Since SurveyUSA completed the study, SurveyUSA has experimented with different ways of presenting ballot measures to poll respondents. Some ballot measures are so long-winded, and/or are written so obtusely, that reading them to poll respondents over the telephone is almost impossible. Yet, summarizing the ballot measure, no matter how careful the pollster is, may introduce the possibility of bias, since the pollster may leave out concepts or words that are key to how the respondent makes up his/her mind. In the parallel test presented here, SurveyUSA compares the effect of reading to poll respondents no summary whatsoever, with the effect of reading to respondents the full ballot text. As you see, the two approaches, at this point in the campaign, 3 weeks to Election Day, produce contrasting results. SurveyUSA will continue this parallel test throughout the remaining weeks of the campaign, and see how the numbers diverge or converge. Important reminder: in Washington State, unlike many states, many voters vote before Election Day. These "vote by mail" voters have the ballot in their hands for potentially days or weeks before marking it. This may give Washington state voters an advantage over voters in other states, who see the actual ballot text only when they walk into the voting booth, and who may feel obligated to skim the language quickly because of anxiety over the long line of voters behind them.

Filtering: 1,500 adults from the state of Washington were interviewed 10/13/06 through 10/15/06. Of them, 1,224 were registered to vote. Of them, 848 were identified as Likely Voters for the U.S. Senate and WA Supreme Court contests. For ballot questions 920 and 933, Likely Voters werre divided at random into two groups. One group was read abbreviated text. A second group was read the full ballot text. For 920, the following 16 words were added by SurveyUSA after the full ballot text was read: "A Yes vote would repeal the tax. A No vote would leave the tax in place."