Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10635

Geography Surveyed: Florida
Data Collected: 11/02/2006 - 11/04/2006
Release Date: 11/05/2006 11:50 AM ET
Sponsors: WFLA-TV Tampa, WKRG-TV Mobile-Pensacola, WTLV-TV Jacksonville

Democrats Have Something to Say About Florida Governor: In an election for Governor of Florida today, 11/5/06, 48 hours till polls close, Democrat Jim Davis has caught Republican Charlie Crist, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa, WTLV-TV Jacksonville, and WKRG-TV Pensacola. In September, Crist led by 8. In October, Crist Led by 13. Today, at the wire, Crist leads by 2, 49% to 47%, sufficiently within the poll's 3.8 percent margin of sampling error that the contest should now be re-classified as a toss-up. Momentum is with the Democrat, though neither SurveyUSA nor any other of the 8 other pollsters working this contest have shown Davis with a lead in 3 dozen opinion polls released since May 2006. Hold on to your hat. Among women, Crist had led by 9, now tied. Among men, Crist had led by 18, now leads by 4. Among older voters, Crist had led by 11, now tied. Among voters under age 50, tied. Among voters 50 to 64, tied. Crist leads among whites, and the Republican will need a lot of white votes to win. Davis leads among minorities. This final SurveyUSA poll assumes 82% of Florida likely voters are white. The more minorities who vote, the tougher it will be for Crist to take the Statehouse.

Democrat Nelson Re-Elected to U.S. Senate: In an election for U.S. Senator from Florida today, 11/5/06, incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson defeats Republican challenger Katherine Harris, 59% to 36%. Nelson's support has grown from 53% in September to 59% at the finish line. Harris's support is flat.

Drama in CFO Contest; Momentum Now With the Democrat: Possibly benefiting from top-of-ticket movement to Democrat gubernatorial candidate Jim Davis, Democratic candidate for Florida's Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink has pulled ahead of Republican Tom Lee, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa, WTLV-TV Jacksonville, and WKRG-TV Pensacola. In September, the Republican led by 8. In October, the Republican led by 2. Today, the Democrat leads by 4, and appears to have momentum. Independent voters have gone from 5:4 Republican to 3:2 Democrat. Among males, the Republican had led by 22, now leads by 1. Turnout will decide this contest, which will be heavily influenced by what happens at the top of the ticket.

Filtering: 800 Florida registered voters were interviewed 11/2/06 through 11/4/06. Of them, 682 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

1
  Asked of 682 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.8%

If the election for Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Charlie Crist? Democrat Jim Davis? Or some other candidate?

49% Crist (R)
47% Davis (D)
3% Other
1% Undecided

2
  Asked of 682 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.8%

Florida voters will also elect a United States Senator. In an election today, who would you vote for? Republican Katherine Harris? Democrat Bill Nelson? Or some other candidate?

36% Harris (R)
59% Nelson (D)
4% Other
1% Undecided

3
  Asked of 682 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.8%

Florida voters will also elect a Chief Financial Officer. In an election today, who would you vote for? Republican Tom Lee? Or Democrat Alex Sink?

46% Lee (R)
50% Sink (D)
2% Won't Vote
2% Undecided

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  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
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  Statement of Methodology
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