Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #9890

Geography Surveyed: Missouri
Data Collected: 08/12/2006 - 08/14/2006
Release Date: 08/15/2006 11:20 AM ET
Sponsors: KCTV-TV Kansas City, KSDK-TV St. Louis

McCaskill and Talent Tie in Fierce Fight for U.S. Senate: In an election for United States Senator in Missouri today, 8/15/06, incumbent Republican Senator Jim Talent and Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill tie, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KCTV-TV Kansas City and KSDK-TV St. Louis. 12 weeks to the 11/7/06 election, McCaskill gets 47% and Talent gets 46%. McCaskill's 1-point advantage is within the poll's 4.6 percentage point margin of sampling error, and is not statistically significant. This contest, one of the most closely watched Senate battles in the nation, should be characterized as a tie. Winner will help Republicans hold control of U.S. Senate or help Democrats wrestle control away. McCaskill today leads by 11 points among women. Talent leads by 9 points among men - a 20-point "gender gap". The more women who vote, the better for the Democrat. The more men who vote, the better for the Republican. Talent leads 6:1 among conservatives. McCaskill leads 8:1 among liberals. McCaskill leads 2:1 among Missouri's moderates. McCaskill leads by 15 points in greater St. Louis. McCaskill leads by 16 points in greater Kansas City. Talent leads 2:1 in the Ozarks. Talent leads by 12 points in Central MO. A high turnout in St. Louis and Kansas City benefits the Democrat. A high turnout in Central Missouri and the Ozarks - the non urban portions of the state - benefits the Republican. Talent leads 9:1 among those who approve of President Bush's performance. McCaskill leads 5:1 among those who disapprove of Bush. Talent defeated Democrat Jean Carnahan by 1 point in 2002, 2 years after she had been named to fill the U.S. Senate seat of her posthumously elected husband Mel Carnahan. McCaskill, who has been Missouri State Auditor since 1998, ran for Missouri Governor in 2004 and lost to Republican Matt Blunt by 3 points.

Filtering: 900 Missouri adults were interviewed 8/12/06 - 8/14/06. Of them, 779 were registered to vote. Of them, 464 were judged to be "likely voters." Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

  Asked of 464 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.6 percentage points.

If the election for United States Senator were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Jim Talent? Democrat Claire McCaskill? Libertarian Frank Gilmour? Or some other candidate?

46% Talent (R)
47% McCaskill (D)
2% Gilmour (L)
5% Undecided

  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
  Statement of Methodology
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