Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12176

Geography Surveyed: Kentucky
Data Collected: 05/18/2007 - 05/20/2007
Release Date: 05/21/2007 8:55 AM ET
Sponsors: WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WHAS-TV Louisville

On the Eve of the Primary for Kentucky Governor ...

Kentucky Democrats Prepare for 06/26/07 Runoff Between Beshear and Lunsford: In a Democratic Primary for Governor of Kentucky today, 5/21/07, hours till polls open tomorrow 5/22/07, the ticket of Steve Beshear and Dan Mongiardo appears to be assured of advancing from the Primary to a runoff, but who Beshear will face on 6/26/07 is somewhat less certain, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely Kentucky Democratic primary voters, conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati. Today, it's Beshear/Mongiardo at 32%, unchanged from a week ago; the ticket of Bruce Lunsford and Greg Stumbo in 2nd place at 23%, unchanged from a week ago, and the ticket of Steve Henry and Renee True in 3rd place at 17%, just close enough behind Lunsford to caution that the primary outcome is not foregone. Neither Beshear, Lunsford or Henry appear likely to reach the 40% of primary votes needed to avoid a 6/26/07 runoff. Lunsford has traction in Eastern KY, where he now edges Beshear, a 13-point swing to Lunsford in the campaign's final week. Henry has lost ground in Louisville week-on week, and now trails Beshear there. Beshear has doubled his support in Louisville from 15% on 05/01/07 to 30% today. Jody Richards has gained ground in Western KY, and has moved from 3rd place at 18% on 5/1/07 to 2nd place and 24% today. Richards has taken votes from Beshear in Western KY, and the top 3 finishers there are separated by 8 points. In North Central KY, Beshear has consolidated support, doubling from 18% on 5/1/07 to 36% today. Henry has lost support among males, and that support has gone to Beshear and Lunsford, both of whom are up among males, in the final week. Lunsford has lost some ground among female Democratic Primary voters. The larger the female turnout, the better for Beshear.

All Quiet on the Republican Front; Fletcher May Avoid Runoff against Northup: In a Republican Primary for Governor of Kentucky today, 5/21/07, hours till polls open tomorrow Tuesday 5/22/07, incumbent Republican Ernie Fletcher and running mate Robbie Rudolph continue to lead 2nd place challenger Anne Northup and Jeff Hoover by 10 points, 44% to 34%, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely Republican primary voters, conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati. Both Fletcher and Northup are unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll released last week on 5/15/07. Billy Harper and Dick Wilson get 17% today, up slightly from a week ago. In five SurveyUSA tracking polls, Fletcher has never trailed. His support was 33% on 3/6/07, 40% on 4/3/07, 46% on 5/1/07, and 44% both 5/15/07 and 5/21/07. Northup has never led. Her support was 31% on both 3/6/07 and 4/3/07, and 34% on 5/1/07, 5/15/07 and today 5/21/07. To avoid a runoff, Fletcher needs strong turnout in Eastern KY, where he leads by 23 points; in North Central KY, where he leads by 18 points; and in Western KY, where he leads Harper by 19 points, with Northup falling to 3rd place. Northup needs overwhelming turnout in Greater Louisville, where she leads 2:1, to drag Fletcher below 40%, and force a runoff without Harper on the ballot. To the extent Harper's support is an anti-Fletcher vote, Harper supporters would benefit Northup in a runoff.

Filtering: 2,000 Kentucky adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA Friday 05/18/07 through Sunday 05/20/07. Of them, 1,773 were registered to vote, including 931 registered Democrats and 689 registered Republicans. Of the 931 registered Democrats, 635 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in tomorrow's 5/22/07 Democratic primary and were included in the survey. Of the 689 registered Republicans, 465 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in tomorrow's 5/22/07 Republican primary and were included in the survey.

Tracking: SurveyUSA released tracking polls in the Kentucky primaries on 3/6/07 and 4/3/07. In both of those polls, "running mates" (the Lieutenant Governors) were not named. The SurveyUSA questionnaire used in the 5/1/07 release, the 5/15/07 release and in today's 5/21/07 release did name running mates. SurveyUSA includes here the tracking only from the last 3 apples-to-apples releases. Results from the 3/6/07 and 4/3/07 SurveyUSA releases, which did not name running mates, are available here: SurveyUSA Kentucky Tracking Data. Separately, on 5/7/07, candidate Jonathan Miller withdrew from the race. The ticket of Miller/Maze was named in SurveyUSA's 5/1/07 questionnaire, but was removed from the questionnaire for the 5/15/07 and 5/21/07 releases. Candidate-Name Rotation. In all surveys, the names of candidates were read in a random order. The question text on the poll report shows the candidates in alphabetical order, for ease of comprehension.

1
  Asked of 635 likely democratic primary voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

If the Democratic primary for Kentucky governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, which ticket would you vote for? Steve Beshear and Dan Mongiardo? Gatewood Galbraith and Mark Wireman? Steve Henry and Renee True? Otis Hensley, Jr. and Richard Robbins? Bruce Lunsford and Greg Stumbo? Or, Jody Richards and John Brown, III?

32% Beshear / Mongiardo
7% Galbraith / Wireman
17% Henry / True
1% Hensley / Robbins
23% Lunsford / Stumbo
12% Richard / Brown
6% Undecided

2
  Asked of 465 likely republican primary voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.6%

If the Republican primary for Kentucky governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, which ticket would you vote for? Ernie Fletcher and Robbie Rudolph? Billy Harper and Dick Wilson? Or, Anne Northup and Jeff Hoover?

44% Fletcher / Rudolph
17% Harper / Wilson
34% Northup / Hoover
5% Undecided

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