Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #9007

Geography Surveyed: OH 2nd Congressional District
Data Collected: 04/25/2006 - 04/27/2006
Release Date: 04/28/2006 10:45 AM ET
Sponsor: WCPO-TV Cincinnati

Analysis: In a Republican Primary in Ohio's 2nd Congressional District today, 4/28/06, incumbent Jean Schmidt defeats former Congressman Bob McEwen 57% to 35%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati. 7% prefer some other candidate. 2% are undecided. The Primary is in 4 days, on 5/2/06. Since an identical SurveyUSA WCPO-TV poll 8 days ago, Schmidt has gained 1 point and McEwen has gained 2 points. Among Republicans, Schmidt had led by 32 points, now by 26 points, a 6-point swing to McEwen. But among Independents, who are 16% of Republican Primary voters in SurveyUSA's "likely voter" model, McEwen has dropped from 51% to 40% in the past 8 days, and Schmidt has increased from 32% to 45%, a 24-point swing towards Schmidt. Schmidt won a special election on 8/2/2005 to fill this seat, which was vacated when Republican Rob Portman resigned on 4/29/05.

Filtering: 2,000 adults from Ohio's 2nd Congressional District were interviewed 4/25/06 - 4/27/06. Of them, 1,824 were Registered Voters. Of them, 720 were judged to be "likely voters". Of them, 462 chose to vote in the Republican Primary. Crosstabs reflect Likely Republican Primary Voters.

Competing Poll by Trailing Candidate: A competing poll, paid for by the McEwen campaign and conducted 4/5/06 - 4/6/06 by the polling firm Zogby International of Utica, New York, offers a different view of the election. Zogby shows the contest 35% Schmidt to 33% McEwen, with 29% undecided. A complete copy of the Zogby questionnaire is available here. Analysis by Zogby is available here.