Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #12594

Geography Surveyed: MA 5th Congressional District
Data Collected: 09/07/2007 - 09/10/2007
Release Date: 09/11/2007 9:30 AM ET
Sponsor: WBZ-TV Boston

Surprising Strength for Republican Ogonowski in MA5 Special Congressional Election Against Tsongas: In an election for U.S. House of Representatives in Massachusetts 5th Congressional District today, 34 days to the 10/16/07 special election, Democrat Niki Tsongas is elected 51% to 41% to fill the seat vacated by Democrat Marty Meehan, who resigned 07/01/07 to become Chancellor of the University of Massachusetts Lowell, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WBZ-TV Boston. Though just 18% of likely voters in SurveyUSA's turnout model are self-identified Republicans, Republican Jim Ogonowski gets 41% of the vote, leading Tsongas among Independents, who make-up 40% of likely voters. The contrasts are stark. Among them: Tsongas leads by 32 points among women. Ogonowski leads by 13 points among men, a 45-point Gender Gap. Tsongas leads by 23 points among the youngest voters. Ogonowski leads by 2 points among the oldest voters. Tsongas leads 9:2 among Democrats, who make-up 42% of likely voters. Ogonowski leads 8:1 among Republicans, who make-up 18% of likely voters. Ogonowski leads by 7 among Independents. Tsongas leads 8:1 among Liberals, who make-up 25% of likely voters. Ogonowski leads 4:1 among Conservatives, who make-up 19% of likely voters. Tsongas and Ogonowski split among Moderates, who make-up 38% of likely voters. Will Voters Use this Special Election to Send a Signal About How Unhappy They are With the Democratic Congress? Consider: Just 15% of likely voters in this District approve of the job Congress is doing. Among those who do approve of Congress, the Democrat Tsongas leads by 24 points. But among the 71% of likely voters who do not approve of the job Congress is doing, the candidates tie. Ogonowski's first TV commercial, "Broken Congress," began airing during the field period for this survey. Separately: 22% of the District thinks the USA is headed in the right direction. Of that group, Ogonowski leads 4:1. 71% of the District thinks the USA is off on the wrong track. Of that group, Tsongas leads 2:1.

Context: Ogonowski won the special Republican primary on 09/04/07 with 89% of the vote. Tsongas held-off a late charge from former Lowell Mayor Eileen Donoghue to win the special Democratic Primary, 36% to 31%. In 2006, incumbent Marty Meehan ran unopposed. In 5 previous contested elections against Meehan, going back to 1992, no Republican got more than 37% of the vote. Filtering: 700 adults from the 5th Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 09/07/07 through 09/09/07. Of them, 657 were registered to vote. Of them, 411 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the 10/16/07 special election.

1
  Asked of 411 likely voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.9 percentage points.

If the special election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Jim Ogonowski? Democrat Niki Tsongas? Independent Kurt Hayes? Independent Patrick Murphy? Or Constitution Party candidate Kevin Thompson?

41% Ogonowski (R)
51% Tsongas (D)
2% Hayes (I)
1% Murphy (I)
2% Thompson (C)
4% Undecided

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