Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10394

Geography Surveyed: Michigan
Data Collected: 10/06/2006 - 10/08/2006
Release Date: 10/09/2006 11:45 AM ET
Sponsors: WDIO-TV Duluth, WDIV-TV Detroit, WZZM-TV Grand Rapids

Democrat Granholm Pulls Ahead In MI Governor Race: In an election for Governor of Michigan today, 10/9/06, incumbent Democrat Jennifer Granholm leads Republican challenger Dick DeVos by 5 points, 50% to 45%, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDIV-TV Detroit, WZZM-TV Grand Rapids and WDIO-TV Duluth. In two previous SurveyUSA tracking polls, released 9/18/06 and 8/22/06, the candidates had been tied at 47%. In the past 3 weeks, since the last track point was released, the Democrat Granholm has gained 3, the Republican DeVos has lost 2. Today, Granholm leads by 19 points among women, up from an 8-point lead with this group. DeVos leads by 9 points among men, a 28-point "gender gap." DeVos leads by 5 points among white voters. Granholm leads by 66 points among black voters. Republicans support DeVos 9:1. Democrats support Granholm 7:1. DeVos has lost ground steadily among Independents. He got 46% of the Independent vote in August, 40% in September, 37% today. DeVos had led by 10 among Suburban voters, now leads by 1. Today, Granholm leads 2:1 in Wayne County. The race is tied other regions of Michigan. The election is in 29 days, on 11/7/06.

Democrat Stabenow Holds U.S. Senate Seat: In an election for United States Senate in Michigan today, 10/9/06, incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow defeats Republican challenger Mike Bouchard by 11 points, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDIV-TV Detroit, WZZM-TV Grand Rapids and WDIO-TV Duluth. 29 days to the 11/7/06 election, Stabenow gets 53%, down 1 point since an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 9/18/06. Bouchard gets 42%, up 1 point. Stabenow leads by 84 points among Democrats. Bouchard leads by 79 points among Republicans. Stabenow leads by 16 points among Independents. Stabenow leads by 23 points among women, trails by 1 point among men, a 24-point "gender gap." 82% of those who approve of President Bush's job performance vote for the Republican Bouchard. 76% of those who disapprove of Bush vote for the Democrat Stabenow. President George W. Bush's approval rating among Michigan likely voters is 34%.

Republican Cox Still Ahead For Attorney General, But Lead Cut In Half: In an election for Attorney General in Michigan today, 10/9/06, incumbent Republican Mike Cox narrowly defeats Democrat challenger Amos Williams, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDIO-TV Duluth, WZZM-TV Grand Rapids and WDIV-TV Detroit. 29 days to the 11/7/06 election, Cox gets 46%. Williams gets 42%. Since an identical poll 3 weeks ago, on 9/18/06, the Republican Cox has lost 3 point, the Democrat Williams has gained 1 point. Cox had led by 8, now by 4. The lead is within the poll's 3.6 percent margin of sampling error. Cox leads by 13 points among men and trails by 5 points among women. Williams leads by 30 points in Wayne County. 3 weeks ago, he led by 4 points there, a 26-point improvement. Cox leads in the rest of Michigan. 90% of Republicans back the Republican. 84% of Democrats back the Democrat. The Republican leads 5:4 among Independents. Cox leads by 14 among the most affluent. Williams leads by 11 among the least affluent.

Republican Land Atop Sabaugh For MI Secretary of State: In an election for Michigan Secretary of State today, 10/9/06, incumbent Republican Terri Lynn Land defeats Democratic challenger Carmella Sabaugh, 51% to 38%, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDIV-TV Detroit, WZZM-TV Grand Rapids and WDIO-TV Duluth. Land leads by 25 points among men and by 1 point among women. Land gets 89% of Republican votes. Sabaugh gets 77% of Democrat votes. 18% of Democrats cross over to vote for the Republican. Only 3% of Republicans cross over to vote for the Democrat. The election is in 29 days, on 11/7/06.

Voters Still Unfamiliar With MI Civil Rights Initiative: Most Michigan voters today, 10/9/06, are unfamiliar with the Michigan Civil Rights Initiative, which will be on the November ballot. Of those respondents qualified by SurveyUSA as likely voters in the Governor and U.S. Senate contests, 55% say they are not familiar with the Civil Rights initiative and are not included in the table below. Only responses from those familiar with the initiative are tabulated. Of those likely voters familiar with the Initiative, 36% vote "Yes" today, 29% vote "No," 35% are not sure. In the past 3 weeks, "Yes" has gained 3 points and "No" has lost 3 points. No conclusions may be drawn at this time as to whether the initiative will pass or fail. The Michigan Civil Rights Initiative would amend the state constitution to prohibit state universities and all other state entities from discriminating against or granting preferential treatment based on race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin. The exact ballot language was not read to poll respondents.

Filtering: 1,200 Michigan adults were interviewed 10/6/06 - 10/8/06. Of them, 1,082 were registered to vote. Of them, 772 were judged to be "likely voters" for Governor and U.S. Senator. 347 Likely Voters were familiar with the Michigan Civil Rights Initiative. Only those familiar with the Initiative were asked how they would vote on the question. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

1
  Asked of 772 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.6%

If the election for Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Dick DeVos? Democrat Jennifer Granholm? Green Party candidate Douglas Campbell? Libertarian Gregory Creswell? Or U.S. Taxpayers Party candidate Bhagwan Dashairya?

45% DeVos (R)
50% Granholm (D)
1% Campbell (G)
1% Creswell (L)
1% Dashairya (UST)
1% Undecided

2
  Asked of 772 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.6%

Voters in Michigan will also have a chance to vote for United States Senator. In an election today, who would you vote for? Republican Mike Bouchard? Democrat Debbie Stabenow? Green Party candidate David Sole? Libertarian Leonard Schwartz? Or U.S. Taxpayers Party candidate Dennis FitzSimons?

42% Bouchard (R)
53% Stabenow (D)
1% Sole (G)
1% Schwartz (L)
1% FitzSimons (UST)
2% Undecided

3
  Asked of 772 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.6%

Voters in Michigan will also have a chance to vote for Attorney General. In an election today, who would you vote for? Republican Mike Cox? Democrat Amos Williams? Libertarian Bill Hall? Or U.S. Taxpayers Party candidate Charles Conces?

46% Cox (R)
42% Williams (D)
3% Hall (L)
3% Conces (UST)
5% Undecided

4
  Asked of 772 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.6%

Voters in Michigan will also have a chance to vote for Secretary of State. In an election today, who would you vote for? Republican Terri Lynn Land? Democrat Carmella Sabaugh? Or Green Party candidate Lynn Meadows?

51% Land (R)
38% Sabaugh (D)
4% Meadows (G)
6% Undecided

5
  Asked of 347 Likely Voters Familiar With Initiative
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 5.4%

Also on the ballot is a proposed amendment to the state constitution, the Michigan Civil Rights initiative. Voters may vote yes or no.

36% 'Certain' Yes
29% 'Certain' No
35% Not Certain

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  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
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  Statement of Methodology
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