Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13192

Geography Surveyed: Florida
Data Collected: 01/11/2008 - 01/13/2008
Release Date: 01/14/2008 8:00 AM ET
Sponsors: WFLA-TV Tampa, WKRG-TV Mobile-Pensacola

FLORIDA -- McCain's "Free-Media" Ride Now Over, GOP Sunshine State Primary Is 4-Way Free-For-All: In a Republican Primary in Florida today, 01/14/08, two weeks to the vote, 4 candidates effectively tie for 1st: John McCain at 25%, Rudolph Giuliani at 23%, and Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney at 18%, according to SurveyUSA's latest tracking poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa and WKRG-TV Mobile. In an identical SurveyUSA poll released 01/11/08, conducted the 1st and 2nd nights following McCain's primary win in New Hampshire, McCain -- then prominently featured in most TV newscasts and on the cover of most of America's newspapers -- had surged by 17 points to lead 3 opponents, who were clustered for 2nd. In SurveyUSA interviewing that continued over the weekend (on the 3rd, 4th and 5th days after New Hampshire, and released today, the 6th day after NH), McCain levels, and Giuliani rebounds ever-so-slightly, to create the 4-way clustering. Fred Thompson and Ron Paul are further back, in single digits. Among "Conservative" Republicans, 1 point separates 1st and 4th place: Giuliani, McCain and Romney all at 21%, Huckabee at 20%. Among "Moderate" Republicans, it's a 2-way tie: McCain at 30%, Giuliani at 29%. Regional differences are pronounced. In SE Florida, Giuliani is 22 points atop Romney, who is in 2nd. In Central Florida, McCain is 15 points atop Giuliani, Huckabee and Romney, who all tie for 2nd. In SW Florida, McCain is 8 points ahead of Huckabee, who is in 2nd. Huckabee's support is disproportionately young. McCain's support is disproportionately old.

Filtering: 2,000 state of Florida adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 01/11/08 through 01/13/08. Of them, 1,752 were registered to vote. Of them, 542 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the Republican Primary on 01/29/08. Results from Michigan on 01/15/08 and South Carolina on 01/19/08 can and will color what happens in Florida. Expect further buffeting in future SurveyUSA tracking polls.

'Triangle-T' is SurveyUSA Exclusive: Reminder that every place you see a black Triangle with a white T, that is SurveyUSA's cue to click to examine our interactive tracking graphs, a SurveyUSA exclusive. For example, to see 10 weeks of tracking points among the subset of just Florida's Conservative Republicans, go here. From that URL, use the pull-down to access tracking graphs for every other demographic subpopulation of interest to you.