Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10644

Geography Surveyed: Virginia
Data Collected: 11/03/2006 - 11/05/2006
Release Date: 11/06/2006 9:55 AM ET
Sponsors: WDBJ-TV Roanoke, WUSA-TV Washington, DC

Late Surge Pushes Webb Ahead of Allen in VA Senate: Tied in 5 previous SurveyUSA pre-election tracking polls, Democrat challenger Jim Webb appears to surge at the finish line and defeat incumbent Republican George Allen in the race for U.S. Senator in Virginia. In polling conducted exclusively for WUSA-TV Washington DC and WDBJ-TV Roanoke, Webb finishes at 52%, Allen at 44%. It is unclear to what extent the editorial in the current issue of 4 military magazines, calling for the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, factored into the votes of military-minded Virginians. Among men, Allen had led by 25 points in June. He leads by 2 in November. There is no movement among Conservatives or Liberals. But: among Independent voters, Allen began hemorrhaging support in October, and at the finish line loses by 26 points among Virginia's Independent voters. Voters age 35 to 49 have also moved decisively to Webb in the campaign's final week. Allen had led by 4, a week ago, trails today by 16. Context: For those handicapping the contest: in 2005, a SurveyUSA poll in Virginia released one day before the Governor's election, showed Democrat Tim Kaine with a new and significant lead over Republican Jerry Kilgore. All previous polling from 6 pollsters had showed the race tied. The Democrat was elected Governor with 52% of the vote. Here, in 2006, in the Senate, it is certainly possible that the contest will be closer than SurveyUSA polling shows it, and Allen may still surprise. But the pattern, one year later, of an almost identical late break to the Democrat is striking enough to warrant mention here.

Question 1 Has Slight Edge, but 1 in 5 Still Not Certain on Election Eve: In a referendum today on Question 1, about marriage, 42% of Virginians say they are certain to vote 'Yes.' 36% are certain to vote 'No.' 22% of likely voters are not yet certain how they will vote on Question 1. Late deciders are breaking evenly. In September, the measure led by 10 points, with 52% of voters not certain. In October the measure led by 9 points, with 35% of voters not certain. Today it leads by 6 points, with 22% of voters not certain. Republicans support. Democrats and Independents oppose. Northeast Virginia opposes. All other regions support. Males support. Females split. Older voters support. Younger voters split.

Filtering: 1,000 Virginia adults were interviewed 11/3/06 through 11/5/06. Of them, 840 were registered to vote. Of them, 741 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

1
  Asked of 741 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.7%

If the election for United States Senator were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican George Allen? Democrat Jim Webb? Independent Green Gail Parker Or some other candidate?

44% Allen (R)
52% Webb (D)
2% Parker (IG)
1% Other/Undecided

2
  Asked of 741 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.7%

Also on the ballot is Question 1, concerning marriage. On Question 1, are you certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or, are you not yet certain how you will vote on Question 1?

42% 'Certain' Yes
36% 'Certain' No
22% Not Certain

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