Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10441

Geography Surveyed: Michigan
Data Collected: 10/22/2006 - 10/24/2006
Release Date: 10/25/2006 11:45 AM ET
Sponsors: WDIO-TV Duluth, WDIV-TV Detroit, WZZM-TV Grand Rapids

Democrat Granholm's Lead Increases to 7 Points for MI Gov: In an election for Governor of Michigan today, 10/25/06, incumbent Democrat Jennifer Granholm defeats Republican challenger Dick DeVos by 7 points, 52% to 45%, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDIV-TV Detroit, WZZM-TV Grand Rapids and WDIO-TV Duluth. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 16 days ago, Granholm is up 2 points, DeVos is unchanged. Granholm had led by 5, now 7. Republicans support DeVos 10:1. Democrats support Granholm 11:1. Independents support Granholm 4:3. Democrats have a 5-point advantage among MI likely voters in SurveyUSA's turnout model. Granholm leads by 15 among women. DeVos leads by 2 among men. DeVos leads by 4 among whites. Granholm leads by 74 among blacks. Granholm leads by 51 in Wayne County. DeVos leads by 7 in the Detroit suburbs. The race is tied elsewhere. The election is in 13 days, on 11/7/06.

Democrat Stabenow's Lead Decreases to 7 Points For U.S. Senate: In an election for United States Senate in Michigan today, 10/25/06, incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow defeats Republican challenger Mike Bouchard 51% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDIV-TV Detroit, WZZM-TV Grand Rapids and WDIO-TV Duluth. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 10/9/06, Stabenow is down 2, Bouchard is up 2. Stabenow had led by 11, now 7. 90% of Democrats vote Democrat. 88% of Republican vote Republican. Independents go for the Democrat, 54% to 37%. 89% of those who approve of President Bush's job performance vote for the Republican Bouchard. 77% of those who disapprove of Bush vote for the Democrat Stabenow. President George W. Bush's approval rating among Michigan likely voters is 35%.

Republican Cox Has Momentum in Attorney General Contest: In an election for Attorney General in Michigan today, 10/25/06, incumbent Republican Mike Cox defeats Democrat challenger Amos Williams, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDIO-TV Duluth, WZZM-TV Grand Rapids and WDIV-TV Detroit. 13 days to the 11/7/06 election, Cox gets 53%. Williams gets 38%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 16 days ago, on 10/9/06, Cox's lead has grown from 4 to 15 points. Williams leads by 12 points in Wayne County, down from 30. Cox leads in the rest of Michigan. 93% of Republicans vote Republican. 79% of Democrats vote Democrat. The Republican leads 2:1 among Independents, up from 5:4.

MI Civil Rights Initiative Too-Close-To-Call: Today, 10/25/06, the Michigan Civil Rights Initiative is tied among those likely voters familiar with it, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDIV-TV Detroit, WZZM-TV Grand Rapids and WDIO-TV Duluth. Of those respondents qualified by SurveyUSA as likely voters in the Governor and U.S. Senate contests, 49% say they are not familiar with the Civil Rights initiative and are not included in the table below. Only responses from those familiar with the initiative are tabulated. Of those likely voters familiar with the Initiative, 37% vote "Yes" today, 35% vote "No," 28% are not sure. In the past 3 weeks, "Yes" has gained 1 point and "No" has gained 6 points. No conclusions may be drawn at this time as to whether the initiative will pass or fail. The Michigan Civil Rights Initiative would amend the state constitution to prohibit state universities and all other state entities from discriminating against or granting preferential treatment based on race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin. The exact ballot language was not read to poll respondents.

Filtering: 1,200 Michigan adults were interviewed 10/22/06 - 10/24/06. Of them, 1,127 were registered to vote. Of them, 803 were judged to be "likely voters" for Governor and U.S. Senator. 409 Likely Voters were familiar with the Michigan Civil Rights Initiative. Only those familiar with the Initiative were asked how they would vote on the question. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

1
  Asked of 803 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.5 percentage points.

If the election for Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Dick DeVos? Democrat Jennifer Granholm? Green Party candidate Douglas Campbell? Libertarian Gregory Creswell? Or U.S. Taxpayers Party candidate Bhagwan Dashairya?

45% DeVos (R)
52% Granholm (D)
1% Campbell (G)
1% Creswell (L)
0% Dashairya (UST)
1% Undecided

2
  Asked of 803 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.5 percentage points.

Voters in Michigan will also have a chance to vote for United States Senator. In an election today, who would you vote for? Republican Mike Bouchard? Democrat Debbie Stabenow? Green Party candidate David Sole? Libertarian Leonard Schwartz? Or U.S. Taxpayers Party candidate Dennis FitzSimons?

44% Bouchard (R)
51% Stabenow (D)
1% Sole (G)
1% Schwartz (L)
1% FitzSimons (UST)
1% Undecided

3
  Asked of 803 Likely Voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.5 percentage points.

Voters in Michigan will also have a chance to vote for Attorney General. In an election today, who would you vote for? Republican Mike Cox? Democrat Amos Williams? Libertarian Bill Hall? Or U.S. Taxpayers Party candidate Charles Conces?

53% Cox (R)
38% Williams (D)
3% Hall (L)
3% Conces (UST)
3% Undecided

4
  Asked of 409 Likely Voters Familiar With Initiative
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.9 percentage points.

Also on the ballot is a proposed amendment to the state constitution, the Michigan Civil Rights initiative. Voters may vote yes or no.

37% 'Certain' Yes
35% 'Certain' No
28% Not Certain

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  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
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  Statement of Methodology
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