Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13041

Geography Surveyed: California
Data Collected: 11/30/2007 - 12/02/2007
Release Date: 12/03/2007 11:45 AM ET
Sponsors: KABC-TV Los Angeles, KFSN-TV Fresno, KGTV-TV San Diego, KPIX-TV San Francisco

Republican CA Primary: Moderates Come Back to McCain; Conservatives Discover Huckabee -- In a Republican Primary in California today, 12/03/07, nine weeks to the vote, Rudolph Giuliani is treading water in a boiling cauldron, according to the latest SurveyUSA pre-primary tracking poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego and KFSN-TV Fresno. Giuliani is 1st today at 32%, John McCain is 2nd at 18%, and Mick Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson are tied for 3rd place, a whisker behind McCain. There is turbulence: Among Moderates, Giuliani is down 4 points, from 37% to 33%, and McCain is up 7 points, from 17% to 24%, an 11-point narrowing. Among Conservatives: Huckabee has leapfrogged into 2nd place, at 19%. Among Pro-Life voters, Giuliani is down 7 points month-on month, Huckabee is up 7 points month-on-month, and has leapt into 2nd place, at 20%. Among voters who think the USA needs a military draft, McCain's support has doubled since October. Among voters age 50 to 64, 9 points now separates 1st place from 5th place. The number of Hispanic voters who will vote in the CA GOP primary is a topic of debate among pollsters, and identifying and interviewing these possible Hispanic Republican voters is a challenge. Because of their small numbers, SurveyUSA's tracking graphs show expected volatility. But all of that taken into account, Huckabee, who tempers his position on immigration, went from 2% among CA GOP Hispanics in November to 20% among CA GOP Hispanics in December. All December interviews were conducted after the CNN YouTube GOP debate 11/28/07 in which the first 35 minutes was spent on immigration.

Democrat Primary Largely Unchanged; Hillary 2:1 Atop Obama -- In a Democratic Primary in California today, 12/03/07, nine weeks to the vote, Hillary Clinton remains 2:1 atop Barack Obama, 3:1 atop John Edwards, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego and KFSN-TV Fresno. Clinton leads Obama by 26 points today, down from a 37-point Clinton lead in October, when Clinton peaked at 57% and Obama dropped to 20%. The 24-point advantage Clinton had among male voters in November is narrowed to 13 points today. John Edwards is at 16% today, the the most votes he has gotten in 8 SurveyUSA California tracking polls.

Filtering: 2,100 California adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 11/30/07 through 12/02/07. Of them, 1,729 were registered to vote. Of them, 505 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Republican Primary, 735 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Democratic Primary.