Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13041
Geography Surveyed: California
Data Collected: 11/30/2007 - 12/02/2007
Release Date: 12/03/2007 11:45 AM ET
Sponsors: KABC-TV Los Angeles, KFSN-TV Fresno, KGTV-TV San Diego, KPIX-TV San Francisco
Republican CA Primary: Moderates Come Back to McCain; Conservatives Discover Huckabee -- In a Republican Primary in California today, 12/03/07, nine weeks to the vote, Rudolph Giuliani is treading water in a boiling cauldron, according to the latest SurveyUSA pre-primary tracking poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego and KFSN-TV Fresno. Giuliani is 1st today at 32%, John McCain is 2nd at 18%, and Mick Huckabee, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson are tied for 3rd place, a whisker behind McCain. There is turbulence: Among Moderates, Giuliani is down 4 points, from 37% to 33%, and McCain is up 7 points, from 17% to 24%, an 11-point narrowing. Among Conservatives: Huckabee has leapfrogged into 2nd place, at 19%. Among Pro-Life voters, Giuliani is down 7 points month-on month, Huckabee is up 7 points month-on-month, and has leapt into 2nd place, at 20%. Among voters who think the USA needs a military draft, McCain's support has doubled since October. Among voters age 50 to 64, 9 points now separates 1st place from 5th place. The number of Hispanic voters who will vote in the CA GOP primary is a topic of debate among pollsters, and identifying and interviewing these possible Hispanic Republican voters is a challenge. Because of their small numbers, SurveyUSA's tracking graphs show expected volatility. But all of that taken into account, Huckabee, who tempers his position on immigration, went from 2% among CA GOP Hispanics in November to 20% among CA GOP Hispanics in December. All December interviews were conducted after the CNN YouTube GOP debate 11/28/07 in which the first 35 minutes was spent on immigration.
Democrat Primary Largely Unchanged; Hillary 2:1 Atop Obama -- In a Democratic Primary in California today, 12/03/07, nine weeks to the vote, Hillary Clinton remains 2:1 atop Barack Obama, 3:1 atop John Edwards, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego and KFSN-TV Fresno. Clinton leads Obama by 26 points today, down from a 37-point Clinton lead in October, when Clinton peaked at 57% and Obama dropped to 20%. The 24-point advantage Clinton had among male voters in November is narrowed to 13 points today. John Edwards is at 16% today, the the most votes he has gotten in 8 SurveyUSA California tracking polls.
Filtering: 2,100 California adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 11/30/07 through 12/02/07. Of them, 1,729 were registered to vote. Of them, 505 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Republican Primary, 735 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Democratic Primary.
|Asked of 505 likely republican primary voters|
|Credibility Interval for this question = ± 4.4 percentage points.|
|If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, would you vote for ...(names rotated) Rudy Giuliani? Mike Huckabee? John McCain? Mitt Romney? Fred Thompson? Or some other Republican?|
|Asked of 735 likely democratic primary voters|
|Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.7 percentage points.|
|If the Democratic Primary were today, would you vote for... Hillary Clinton? Barack Obama? John Edwards? Or some other Democrat?|
|Asked of 1729 Adults|
|Credibility Interval for this question = ± 2.4 percentage points.|
|Should California's 55 electoral college votes continue to all go to the winner? Should the system be changed so that California's Electoral College votes are divided among the candidates for president based on the percent of the popular vote each receives? Or, are you not sure?|
|35%||All Go To The Winner|
|47%||Divided Among The Candidates|
|Complete Interactive Crosstabs|
|Statement of Methodology|
|© 2007 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations|