Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10447

Geography Surveyed: Ohio
Data Collected: 10/09/2006 - 10/11/2006
Release Date: 10/12/2006 11:35 AM ET
Sponsors: WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WKYC-TV Cleveland, WYTV-TV Youngstown

Democrat Take-Away in Ohio Governor: In an election for Governor of Ohio today, 10/12/2006, Democrat Ted Strickland defeats Republican Ken Blackwell, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WKYC-TV Cleveland, and WYTV-TV Youngstown. Strickland, currently representing Ohio's 6th Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives, gets 60%, up 4 points from an identical SurveyUSA poll on 9/21/06. Blackwell, currently Ohio Secretary of State, gets 32%, down 3 points. In the last 3 weeks, Strickland's lead has grown from 21 to 28 points. 28% of Republicans cross-over to vote for the Democrat Strickland; only 5% of Democrats cross-over and vote for the Republican Blackwell. Independents prefer Strickland by 30 points. Conservatives vote for Blackwell by 47 points, but Strickland leads among moderates by 66 points. 3 weeks ago, moderates favored Strickland by 37 points, a 29-point improvement. Strickland leads by 21 points among men, by 36 points among women. Incumbent Republican Governor Bob Taft is term-limited. The seat is open. The election is in 26 days, on 11/7/2006.

Democrat Take-Away in Ohio U.S. Senate: In an election for United States Senator from Ohio today, 10/12/2006, Democrat Sherrod Brown defeats incumbent Republican Mike DeWine, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WKYC-TV Cleveland, and WYTV-TV Youngstown. Brown, who represents Ohio's 13th District in Congress, unseats DeWine, 54% to 40% in a vote today. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll 9/21/06, Brown has gained 2 points and DeWine has lost 2 points. Brown's lead has grown from 10 to 14 points. Male voters still prefer Brown by 1 point, but Brown's lead among women has grown from 19 points to 26 points in the last 3 weeks. DeWine holds 83% of his Republican base. Brown holds 90% of his Democrat base. Brown leads by 22 points among Independents. Republican DeWine leads by 64 points among Conservatives. Democrat Brown leads by 75 points among Liberals. Among Moderates, Democrat Brown leads by 45 points, up from a 31-point lead with this group last month. DeWine wins 3:2 in Western OH. Brown wins 2:1 in Central and Eastern OH. The election is on 11/7/2006. DeWine was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1994. Brown was first elected to Congress in 1992.

Issue 2 Passes: In an election in Ohio today, 10/12/06, voters approve State Issue 2, raising the minimum wage, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WKYC-TV Cleveland, and WYTV-TV Youngstown. 26 days to the 11/7/06 election, 44% vote "Yes" and 12% vote "No". 44% are not yet certain how they will vote. Among Democrats, the measure passes by 60% to 2%, Among Republicans, it passes by 32% to 23%. The Issue is opposed by 19% of men but by only 5% of women. Support for Issue 2 is strong across all areas of the state.

Issue 3 Uncertain: In an election in Ohio today, 10/12/06, State Issue 3, concerning slot machines, is not decided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WKYC-TV Cleveland, and WYTV-TV Youngstown. 26 days to the 11/7/06 election, 48% vote "Yes" and 30% vote "No". With 32% not yet certain how they will vote, no prediction about whether the Issue will pass may be made. Among Democrats, Issue 3 passes by 24 points. Among Republicans, Issue 3 fails by 9 points. Voters under 35 support the measure by 23 points. Voters 65 and over oppose the measure by 15 points.

Filtering: 900 Ohio adults were surveyed 10/9/2006 - 10/11/2006. Of them, 779 were registered to vote. Of them, 515 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

1
  Asked of 515 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

If the election for Governor of Ohio were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Ken Blackwell? Democrat Ted Strickland? Green Party candidate Bob Fitrakis? Libertarian Bill Peirce? Or some other candidate?

32% Blackwell (R)
60% Strickland (D)
1% Fitrakis (G)
2% Peirce (L)
5% Other/Undecided

2
  Asked of 515 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.4%

If the election for United States Senator were today, who would you vote for? Republican Mike Dewine? Democrat Sherrod Brown? Or some other candidate?

40% DeWine (R)
54% Brown (D)
6% Other/Undecided

3
  Asked of 515 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.4%

Also on the ballot is State Issue 2, about the minimum wage. On Issue 2, are you certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or are you not certain how you will vote on Issue 2?

44% "Certain" Yes
12% "Certain" No
44% Not Certain

4
  Asked of 515 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.4%

Also on the ballot is State Issue 3, about slot machines. On Issue 3, are you certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or are you not certain how you will vote on Issue 3?

38% "Certain" Yes
30% "Certain" No
32% Not Certain

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