Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #8868

Geography Surveyed: CA 50th CD
Data Collected: 04/07/2006 - 04/09/2006
Release Date: 04/10/2006 11:35 AM ET
Sponsor: KGTV-TV San Diego

In CA 50, on Election Eve, 2 Separate Dramas Unfold: On the eve of the 4/11/06 Special Primary for the U.S. House of Representatives in California's 50th Congressional District, intense interest focuses on whether Democrat Francine Busby can possibly receive a majority of votes in an 18-candidate field, in which case the Democrats will succeed at "taking" a House seat away from the Republicans; and, if Busby fails to achieve a majority of the vote, then: which of several tightly bunched Republicans will face Busby in a Runoff Election on 6/6/06. Data gathered 4/7/06 to 4/9/06 by SurveyUSA, exclusively for KGTV-TV in San Diego, and released here shows Busby today at 47%, tantalizingly close to the 50% + 1 needed to avoid a runoff. Trailing Busby, far back, are Republican Eric Roach, at 14%, and Republican Brian Bilbray at 13%. These two are effectively tied. In 4th place is Republican Howard Kaloogian at 9%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 2 weeks ago, on 3/28/06, Busby is up 2 points, from 45% to 47%. Roach is unchanged at 14%. Bilbray has gained 3 points, from 10% to 13%, and Kaloogian has lost 3 points, from 12% to 9%. Busby is supported by 89% of Democrats, half of Independents, and 12% of Republicans. Click "T" to see SurveyUSA tracking graphs. The district is heavily Republican, and if Busby fails to top 50%, whichever Republican survives the Primary would be favored in a runoff. The 50th Congressional seat is vacant; Republican Randy "Duke" Cunningham resigned on 11/28/2005. Because the special election is seen by some as a referendum on corruption, the Congressional contest has been "nationalized," with money from many outside groups pouring into the district to attempt to mobilize and persuade voters. This could have unforeseen consequences in a low-turnout special election.

Filtering: 900 registered voters from California's 50th Congressional District, identified using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International, were interviewed 4/7/06 - 4/9/06. Of them, 486 were judged to be "likely voters". Crosstabs reflect Likely Special Primary voters.

Competing Poll: A competing poll released 4/8/06 by Datamar, of El Cajon, CA, shows Busby with 40% of the vote, Roach with 18%, Bilbray with 16%. Both SurveyUSA and Datamar use similar technology to conduct research. Both SurveyUSA and Datamar, in this contest, are using Registration Based Sample (RBS), as opposed to Random Digit Dial sample (RDD). Datamar is relying on past voting history to determine who is a likely voter, including in its survey only voters who voted in both 2004 and 2002. SurveyUSA is relying on the stated intention and the stated passion of poll respondents to determine who is a likely voter. SurveyUSA's likely voter model detects more enthusiasm among Democrats than among Republicans in CA 50. That is reflected in SurveyUSA's voter-turnout model, and in the data we present here. Datamar shows 54% of likely voters to be Republican. SurveyUSA shows 45% of likely voters to be Republican. Datamar shows 32% of likely voters to be Democrat. SurveyUSA shows 37% of likely voters to be Democrat. Datamar shows 49% of likely voters to be male. SurveyUSA shows 51% of likely voters to be male. Datamar has 54% of likely voters earning more than $80,000 a year. SurveyUSA has 47% of likely voters earning more than $80,000 a year. The election presents researchers and scholars with an opportunity to learn whether, in a special election, past-voting behavior is more predictive of outcome than stated intent.