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Perlmutter Poised To Defeat Lamm in CO CD # 7 Primary... But By How Much? On the eve of the Democratic Primary in Colorado's 7th Congressional District, Ed Perlmutter is poised to defeat Peggy Lamm, though Perlmutter's margin of victory will depend on how many Coloradans vote in the Primary, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KUSA-TV Denver. SurveyUSA analyzed results of the Primary using 3 different assumptions: large turnout, medium turnout, and small turnout. In a large turnout, Perlmutter gets 49%, Lamm 37%. SurveyUSA reports the large turnout data here. The smaller the turnout, the larger Perlmutter's victory. The winner of the Democratic Primary goes on to face Republican Rick O'Donnell in November. Incumbent Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez is running for Colorado Governor this year, making the open seat in Colorado's 7th District a valuable prize for both Democrats and Republicans, as each seeks control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Perlmutter leads among male primary voters by 16 points. Perlmutter leads among female primary voters by 10. The more females who vote in the Primary, the smaller the Perlmutter advantage. Voters who are absolutely certain to vote favor Perlmutter disproportionately. Lamm does slightly better among voters who "probably" will vote, and whom SurveyUSA includes here in a large-turnout scenario. Females are more likely to be "probable" than "certain" voters in this contest, so the gender composition in a large-turnout scenario shifts to be disproportionately female. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released last week, on 8/1/2006, which used a medium-turnout assumption, Perlmutter is down 2 points, Lamm is up 6. Of the 592 Likely Democratic Primary Voters included, 12% are self-identified Independents. The two candidates are effectively tied among Independents. Lamm leads by 13 among self-identified Democrats. |