Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10180

Geography Surveyed: Tennessee
Data Collected: 09/09/2006 - 09/11/2006
Release Date: 09/12/2006 11:45 AM ET
Sponsor: WBIR-TV Knoxville

Bredesen 2:1 Atop Bryson for Governor of TN: In an election for Governor of Tennessee today, 9/12/06, Democratic incumbent Phil Bredesen defeats Republican Challenger Jim Bryson 63% to 30%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WBIR-TV Knoxville. The election is in 8 weeks, on 11/7/06. 90% of Democrats vote for the Democrat. But just 61% of Republican vote for the Republican. 33% of Republicans cross over to vote for the Democrat. Independents prefer Bredesen 3:1. Likely voters who approve of President George W. Bush's job performance pick Bryson 59% to 35%. Those who disapprove of Bush pick Bredesen 85% to 7%. President Bush's job approval among Tennessee likely voters is 43%.

Black Turnout May Decide Fierce Senate Fight Between Corker and Ford: In an election for United States Senator from Tennessee today, 9/12/06, Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. and Republican Bob Corker are locked in a fierce fight, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WBIR-TV Knoxville. 8 weeks to the 11/7/06 election, Ford gets 48% and Corker gets 45%. The outcome is within the poll's 4.0% margin of sampling error. Ford gets 85% of Democrat votes. Corker gets 81% of Republican votes. Independents prefer Ford, 53% to 40%. Black turnout is critical to the outcome of this contest. Corker leads by 5 among whites, who make up 86% of TN Likely Voters in SurveyUSA's turnout model. Ford, an African American, leads by 69 points among black voters, who make up 11% of the electorate in SurveyUSA's turnout model. A higher black turnout helps Ford, possibly just enough to elect him. A lower black turnout helps Corker. There is a 17-point Gender Gap: Corker leads by 6 among males. Ford leads by 11 among females. Ford leads in Western TN by 24 points and in Middle TN by 4 points. Corker leads by 9 points in Eastern TN. Ford leads 2:1 in Urban areas. Corker leads by 3 points in the suburbs and by 7 points in rural areas. Incumbent Republican Senator Bill Frist is not running for re-election. This open seat is critical for the Democrats' hopes of regaining control of the U.S. Senate.

Filtering: 1,200 Tennessee adults were interviewed 9/9/06 - 9/11/06. Of them, 1,014 were registered to vote. Of them, 638 were judged to be "likely voters." Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

1
  Asked of 638 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.8%

If the election for Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Jim Bryson? Democrat Phil Bredesen? Or some other candidate?

30% Bryson (R)
63% Bredesen (D)
1% Other
6% Undecided

2
  Asked of 638 Likely Voters
  Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

Tennessee voters will also elect a United States Senator. In an election today, who would you vote for? Republican Bob Corker? Democrat Harold Ford Jr.? Or some other candidate?

45% Corker (R)
48% Ford (D)
1% Other
6% Undecided

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  Complete Interactive Crosstabs
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  Statement of Methodology
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