Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10636

Geography Surveyed: Maine
Data Collected: 11/02/2006 - 11/04/2006
Release Date: 11/05/2006 11:20 AM ET
Sponsor: WCSH-TV Portland

Here Comes Merrill in Maine; Only Candidate with Momentum at Finish of 4-Way Free-For-All: 2 days till Maine elects a Governor, incumbent Democrat John Baldacci is down, Republican challenger Chandler Woodcock is down, Green Party candidate Pat LaMarche is flat, and Independent Barbara Merrill is up, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 638 likely voters conducted exclusively for WCSH-TV Portland and WLBZ-TV Bangor. Baldacci at the wire leads by 6 points, not much different than the 5-point lead he had in September and the 8-point lead he had in October. But: Baldacci's support over the past 10 weeks has fallen from 44% to 42% to today 36%. Republican Woodcock is down from 39% in September to 34% in October to 30% today. LaMarche had been at 9%, now is at 11%. But Merrill, in the past two weeks, has surged from 12% then to 21% today. Because the top 3 candidates are on a collision course, and because Merrill is siphoning Independent votes directly from the Democrat, Baldacci's re-election remains likely, but no longer certain. Among Independents, Baldacci is down 18 points and Merrill is up 21 points since September. The two today are tied among this key group of swing voters. SurveyUSA's tracking graphs are indispensable in understanding the forces at work in this contest. Access them here.

Taxpayer Bill of Rights Defeated: In a referendum today, the Taxpayer Bill of Rights is defeated, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCSH-TV Portland and WLBZ-TV Bangor. Almost all voters who have made up their mind in the past 2 weeks on how they will vote on the Bill of Rights, are voting against. At the finish line, it's 50% certain to vote 'No,' 33% certain to vote 'Yes,' and 17% still not certain how they will vote. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 10/23, support is flat, opposition is up 9 points. Republicans support the Bill 2:1. Democrats oppose 5:1. Independents oppose 4:3.

Filtering: 900 Maine adults were interviewed 11/2/06 through 11/4/06. Of them, 826 were registered to vote. Of them, 638 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.