Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14371

Geography Surveyed: Virginia
Data Collected: 09/12/2008 - 09/14/2008
Release Date: 09/15/2008 9:20 AM ET
Sponsors: WDBJ-TV Roanoke, WJHL-TV Tri-Cities, WJLA-TV Washington DC, WTVR-TV Richmond

Virginia Men, Voters Age 50+, Independents, Take Another Look At Obama: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/15/08, 7 weeks till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 46%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, immediately following the Republican National Convention, Obama is up 3 points; McCain is down 3. The movement solidifies Virginia place as America's 2008 battleground.

One week ago, McCain led among men by 11 points. Today, McCain and Obama tie. One week ago, McCain led among voters age 50+ by 14 points. Today, McCain leads by 1. One week ago, Obama led among lower income voters by 6 points. Today, Obama leads by 20. One week ago, McCain led among Independents by 21 points. Today, McCain leads by 4. 17% of Republicans today crossover to vote Democrat, up from 11% last week and 7% last month. 12% of Democrats cross over to vote Republican, compared with 10% in the two previous polls. Strikingly: week-on-week movement in the DC suburbs was to McCain; movement in the Shenandoah and Central VA was to Obama.

In Virginia, there is still no evidence that Sarah Palin is attracting women to the GOP ticket. McCain polled at 44% before he picked Palin, and at 43% in each of the two polls conducted after Palin was announced.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Virginia adults 09/12/08 through 09/14/08. Interviews were conducted largely but not entirely after ABC News interview with Sarah Palin had been broadcast, after federal bailout of Fannie Mae had been announced, but before bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Of the adults, 817 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 732 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Virginia has 13 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Virginia by 8 points in both 2004 and 2000.

  Asked of 732 likely voters
  Credibility Interval for this question = ± 3.7 percentage points.

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?

46% McCain (R)
50% Obama (D)
2% Other
2% Undecided

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